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bellweather1

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  • Benitec Q&A Meets ASX Rules [View instapost]
    Hi Panno-thank you so much for making the effort, although if they weren't prepared to make a good faith effort to answer your Qs, they should have said so and left it at that.
    As it is, you did extract one useful piece of info though, and that's that Benitec(or at least it's PR dept.) has no respect for regular shareholders...sadly, a valuable piece of info to bear in mind going forward.
    Thanks again & best regards,
    bw
    Mar 7, 2015. 05:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TG Therapeutics: Upcoming Data At ASH Conference Could Double Share Price [View article]
    Hi Scott,

    Wanted to add that, like yourself, it's also my impression that many people(Michael Weiss included)seem to grow into their jobs. I don't know much about his performance before TGTX, but I've noticed him gradually improve in his representation of the company at meetings, over the last 2 years.

    And, one important thing I can say regarding his performance all along has been that, if anything, he tends to under-promise and over-deliver, and is consistently respectful of his competitors.

    As a result, now that he's starting to more aggressively allude to the wide potential of his drugs and overall program, it carries a lot more weight with me(and, I suspect, a large number of others, including the institutions), than it would have otherwise.

    This integrity is one of the primary reasons why I'm so significantly invested here(and have been since the 3s).

    Although we all know that there is certainly an element of luck involved in drug development, it's these types of characteristics that enable CEOs to make their own luck to a significant degree, which is why I continue to expect great things going forward.

    Best,
    bw
    Dec 3, 2014. 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TG Therapeutics: Upcoming Data At ASH Conference Could Double Share Price [View article]
    Hi Scott,

    Very much enjoyed and appreciated the article, and, as a very large shareholder, I'm a little jealous I didn't write it myself:)

    Nevertheless, I have a few reservations:

    1) As you acknowledged, the pipeline chart significantly understates the extent of individual drug and overall program development. So, I wish you had either skipped it, or provided one which was more representative, if only because people who scan these things may miss the qualifications.

    2)More importantly, I believe you may have (perhaps grossly) underestimated the value of TGR-1202 regarding current and potential marketcap.

    This is because, as I am sure you are well aware, an MTD, due to the absence of liver or other significant toxicity seems nowhere in sight, despite the heightened exposure facilitated by the 1200mg fed/micronized formulation.

    Seeing as one would expect some signs of such to have appeared over the last 1 & 1/2years of therapy if significant liver tox was going to be a problem(as with all other PI3Ks to date), and, seeing as there's every reason to believe that 1202 has a lot further to go regarding higher dosages before an MTD is reached, it seems likely that, in addition to becoming the best in class PI3K medication, 1202 may very well expand the potential of the entire class which has, up until now, been limited by just these toxicity issues.

    Therefore, although I realize it's currently difficult to put a dollar value on this characteristic, I wish you had at least alluded to it.

    Of course, regarding 1202 valuation, the other more obvious problem, from my POV, is that if INFIs clearly lower potential drug(Duvelisib) got a $805ml valuation, even at this early stage, how did you come up with a valuation of only $200-$300ml for 1202?

    Knowing what we know about both drugs, I just find it hard to imagine that 1202 could be valued less than Duvelisib.

    Therefore, assuming I agree with the rest of your valuation metrics, I would put current value at about (1101 800ml+ 1202 800ml)+93ml cash=approx.1.7bl, and, assuming ASH data is as expected, post ASH valuation (1101 1.2bl+ 1202 900ml)+93ml cash=approx.2.2bl.

    Like yourself, I have been, and continue to be very impressed with the vision and leadership of Michael Weiss & Co.

    Thanks for taking the time to do such a thorough review of the company.

    Regards,

    bw
    Dec 2, 2014. 07:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TG Therapeutics Reaches Phase 3 Special Protocol Assessment Faster Than Expected [View article]
    Mrs. BullBear,

    I guess your TGTX article is fair, as far as it goes(although I don't think you really need to tell us that clinical trial failure is a risk, do you?). But I'm afraid the biggest problem IMO, is that your article is so superficial in it's appreciation and value assessment of TGTX, that I have trouble understanding why you even wrote it.

    For example, most observers would note that TGR-1202(TGTXs PI3K inhibitor) is
    very likely to be a superior drug(due to it's much better toxicity and administration profile) compared to duvelisib, which ABBY just paid INFI approx. 800ml for(and that's not even including hefty future royalties).

    This fact alone clearly suggests, TGTX, at its current Mkt cap of about 450ml, is seriously undervalued, seeing as the company, as you note, also has another likely best-in-class drug (TG-1101) on a fast track to approval in combination trials with one of the most important drugs in B-cell therapy (Imbruvica).

    Just as importantly, however, also overlooked is that fact that if TGR-1202 and TG-1101(an anti CD20) both prove to be best-in-class (as is likely), they will become part of a wide range of combination therapies which would dramatically outstrip their utility and profitability as single drug therapies.

    This of course, further suggests that the company is seriously undervalued and(as has been pointed out frequently), an obvious takeover target for a number of larger companies looking to bolster their B-cell combo assets as competition heats up in the sector.

    Therefore, in summary, I was disappointed in your article because it missed the larger points(as has most of the market till very recently), that 1)TGTXs vision to produce the best drugs for B-cell combination therapy is the correct one, and, 2) it's ability to execute on that vision (with 2 seemingly best-in-class drugs), makes it a steal(at the current market cap).
    Sep 19, 2014. 11:27 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer And Omeros Corporation: PDE10 Inhibitors [View article]

    Pfizer And Omeros Corporation: PDE10 Inhibitors [View article]
    Hi, and thank you for your information & analysis- However I take exception with a few of the points made:

    1) In view of the questionable results of PFEs PDE10/10A inhibitor to date, as well as the complexity of this much larger company vs OMER, I don't see why anyone should consider hedging one against the other b/c the potential of PFEs PD10 seem so iffy, there are so many other factors that could effect the co unrelated to possible PD10 efficacy, and, it's impact, short of a home run outcome, wouldn't be any where near as material for PFE as it would for little OMER.

    2)I think your technical analysis regarding H&Ss is, at best, a stretch, seeing as the stock has already hit approx. $12 on the road to the presumably recent $15.50 RT shoulder formation.

    3) The fact that OMERs PDE10 actual approval is, if ever, far off, doesn't necessarily detract from it's ability, assuming continued favorable data, to increase the stock price fairly astronomically(conside... it's relatively small mkt cap and enormous ultimate market), not to mention the short squeeze potential, so it has(and should have) little bearing on one's motivation in deciding to invest in such a small cap biotech.

    Regards,

    bw
    Sep 8, 2014. 11:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pfizer And Omeros Corporation: PDE10 Inhibitors [View article]
    Hi, and thank you for your information & analysis- However I take exception with a few of the points made:

    1) In view of the questionable results of PFEs PDE10/10A inhibitor to date, as well as the complexity of this much larger company vs OMER, I don't see why anyone should consider hedging one against the other b/c the potential of PFEs PD10 seem so iffy, there are so many other factors that could effect the co unrelated to possible PD10 efficacy, and, it's impact, short of a home run outcome, wouldn't be any where near as material for PFE as it would for little OMER.

    2)I think your technical analysis regarding H&Ss is, at best, a stretch, seeing as the stock has already hit approx. $12 on the road to the presumably recent $15.50 RT shoulder formation.

    3) The fact that OMERs PDE10 actual approval is, if ever, far off, doesn't necessarily detract from it's ability, assuming continued favorable data, to increase the stock price fairly astronomically(conside... it's relatively small mkt cap and enormous ultimate market), not to mention the short squeeze potential, so it has(and should have) little bearing on one's motivation in deciding to invest in such a small cap biotech.

    Regards,

    bw
    Sep 8, 2014. 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Penn West: Expect Little Growth Until 2016 [View article]
    Very nice, balanced article, outlining the offsetting contingencies-I thought the R/R was very favorable in the mid to low 7s, which is why I'm sorry I didn't get up earlier today-would have picked up some more(lol).

    Bottom Line: On balance, I think the ceo(who appears to be a real, no nonsense, oil man)is exercising a sound long-term strategy, with a very high chance of success-the oil industry equivalent of "tough love", which is just, IMO, what this company needed!

    However, if your caution is justified, I should get another chance...

    Best regards,

    bw
    Mar 7, 2014. 01:48 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting the biotech boom in perspective [View news story]
    Some sector funds probably are. But as I already stated, biotech, in particular, is a stock pickers market, so I favor(and only own) individual stocks. I guess post dip, a fund analogue of the IBB would be a good investment long term.
    Feb 25, 2014. 01:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting the biotech boom in perspective [View news story]
    Heem, that has been the mantra of so many people in all markets, not just biotech... But frothiness, to my mind, is in the eye of the beholder, and should only be evaluated in comparison to the other alternatives.

    Current broad market levels (at approx. 16xs) continue to provide a preferable alternative to most fixed income alternatives. Biotech, which by it's very nature, is a speculative domain, is always priced far above the general market. But, unlike the dot com era, valuations by and large still bear some relation to future earnings potential-however, determining which COs warrant these higher valuations and which are essentially just over-hyped is the responsibility of the individual investor-i.e.perhaps more so than any other sector, it is a stock pickers market.

    Bottom line, therefore, is that despite corrections, this sector will remain "frothy" by any conventional standards. Nevertheless, COs that warrant lofty valuations will continue to advance, so don't expect global sector corrections to provide you with entry points because by the time these occur, the stocks you should want to invest in will be that much more expensive.
    Feb 24, 2014. 08:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Putting the biotech boom in perspective [View news story]
    I can appreciate the implications of this article in broad terms, and I'm sure the volatility we've seen will continue because of the risks inherent in rapid growth in a field where most investors knowledge is relatively superficial. However, by and large, I think this growth has a long way to go for 2 predominant reasons:

    1) the demographics of industrial populations, that will continue to need the products that only biotech, in so many cases, is able to provide.

    2)the maturation our understanding of the human genome continues to increase our awareness of new, more effective targets in such a wide range of disease types, that we're beginning to see real clinical solutions and benefits where none existed-as a result many death sentence diseases will be converted to chronic ones, and this will ultimately support the dramatic increases in value within the sector that produced them-namely biotech.
    Feb 24, 2014. 04:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Durable goods sinks 7.3% [View news story]
    Just(somewhat bizarrely)same old bad news is good news(via QE)!!!
    Aug 26, 2013. 02:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northwest Biotherapeutics Surges On Perfect Storm Of Short Squeeze, New Buying Interest [View article]
    Mr. Smith,

    I have read your articles with great interest, and am a shareholder in both imuc and nwbo, but I'm wondering what you think about nwbo's latest sec filing in which they disclose that they have almost no cash and enormous liabilities. This seems to have precipitated a 16% decline in today's stock price. Please see http://1.usa.gov/XN2Zw4

    Thanks,

    bw
    Nov 16, 2012. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ariad Pharmaceuticals Gearing Up For Ponatinib's Approval [View article]
    Agree with several others that the SA readership is more astute and scientifically adept than your comment imply-nuts and bolts analysis backed up with scientific facts and figures are just what I, and many of the rest of this audience, are hungry for.

    Better to challenge those who aren't comfortable with the data, to bring themselves up to speed, rather than the all too typical reverse.

    In addition, the readership of SA will only continue to improve in both number and sophistication if it supplies more articles of this quality.

    Thanks for a Great Survey Report!!!
    Aug 30, 2012. 06:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Biotech ETFs are near all-time highs despite overall market weakness, due to successful trials - e.g. for Vertex's (VRTX) cystic fibrosis treatment - and because some investors are betting on deals occurring. One ETF that is doing particularly well this year is iShares Nasdaq Biotech (IBB). Others include XBI, FBT and BBH.  [View news story]
    I guess there may be some people out there who aren't already aware of this, but if there are, I hope(for their sake) they aren't biotech investors-

    It's always important to be aware of the sector trend of your investments.

    I think the other important point, concerning the current outperformance of the biotech sector, relates to anticipated positive surprises at ASCO 2012.

    The related risk, of course, is that, in view of the overall mkt weakness, you'll see a catch-up selloff on the news-

    what is and isn't priced in???
    May 14, 2012. 03:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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