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timnpawc

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  • Carving Up The World Smart Device Market Shows Opportunity For BlackBerry And Nokia [View article]
    I am amazed that everybody thinks that a bad quarter kills a company.

    ...That BlackBerry is dead because they sold 2.7M instead of 3.2M BB10 phones? Everybody knew they needed to sell 3-3.5 to break even. They didn't...yet.

    Sales went from 6M to 6.8M
    BB7 went from 5M to 4.1M
    BB10 went from 1M to 2.7M

    Stock is kaput at $10? 70% above 2012 low?
    Jul 1, 2013. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Longs Versus Shorts [View article]
    Overall not a bad article but....

    "Gross Sales - Unfortunately for BlackBerry, sales as currently reported are still declining quarter over quarter and this will continue if BB7 sales decrease faster than BB10 sales increase.

    So you are suggesting BlackBerry sold less than 6M devices Q1?

    If Q4 was 5M BB7 and 1M BB10, all BlackBerry needs to report on Friday is 4M BB10 and 2M BB7 and your comment is invalid, no?

    So re-phrase to BlackBerry bears are suggesting instead of currently reported which is false.
    Jun 26, 2013. 07:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Longs Versus Shorts [View article]
    Teachers has a lot of purchasing power especially after not buying Bell Canada.
    Jun 26, 2013. 06:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unwinding Crowded BlackBerry Short Trade Can Choke Short Sellers [View article]
    wiesje

    Please expect shorts to try again this week to lower stock before earnings report so jump isnt as high.

    I am expecting BB10 device sales to beat substantially.
    I am expecting EPS to beat substantially.

    I am expecting BB7 decline to be higher than most analysts have called. NUETRAL but short focus
    I am expecting subscribers, if they present that number, to decline less than 10%. NUETRAL but short focus

    I am expecting guidance to be strong and will be a catalyst for stock price increase.

    I believe shorts are already expecting good Q1 results and strong Q2 guidance as they are already forcasting pent up demand through Q2 and "DOA" in Q3 now!

    With smart phone market growing 30% and sitting at 1B for next year, 5% market share for BlackBerry would be 50M devices, 12.5M per quarter.

    If BlackBerry can sell 7M devices in Q1, getting a full quarter with Q10, adding Q5 and A10 plus possibly a Z5 and a 6th device, I am pretty sure we will see 12.5M devices a quarter before too long! Especially with BES, BBM and QNX Automotive product evolutions.
    Jun 26, 2013. 08:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Lifting The Veil On Deutsche Bank's Flawed BlackBerry Study [View article]
    Q2,and Q3 guidance is critical for July stock management.
    Agreed

    6M devices sold Q4 last year
    20% growth off base of 6M to 7.2M devices Q1(Friday)
    30% growth off of Q1 of 7.2M devices to 9.4M for Q2(September).
    30% growth off of Q2 of 9.4M to 12.2M for Q3(December)
    20% growth off of Q3 of 12.7M to 14.6M for Q4(March)
    Jun 25, 2013. 05:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Z10 Likely To Fail, Q10 And Q5 Give Hope [View article]
    Marcap,

    Thoughts?
    Jun 24, 2013. 09:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: More Devices, More Data, And More Revenue [View article]
    OIL,

    Agreed.

    What we need from earnings report is neutral to positive, anything over guidance, then let incremental weekly occurrences take stock higher.

    DoD MdM decision was suppose to be released late June...
    Jun 24, 2013. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: More Devices, More Data, And More Revenue [View article]
    HD,

    Agreed.

    I too am a little stressed at the path stock has taken since January. I also have a chunk of my retirement investment in BlackBerry and am looking for some positive trending. But I have committed to a long position and see no real negative news coming out that would change my mind.
    Jun 24, 2013. 07:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: More Devices, More Data, And More Revenue [View article]
    Good point and as pointed out, BlackBerry should have a dynamic speaker but it doesn't have to be CEO!
    Jun 24, 2013. 07:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: More Devices, More Data, And More Revenue [View article]
    I am Canadian.
    I love Neil Young.
    But BlackBerry needs to be cosmopolitan, not Canadian in their strategy for global growth.
    TH like everybody else has his strengths and weaknesses.
    Based purely of business and risk analysis, changing at this point would cause more negative pressure to stock than positive. Same applies to all the Nokia bears suggesting Nokia should dump CEO and port to Android. TH seems to be doing what needs to be done. As the company becomes successful quarter over quarter, they most likely will choose either a vibrant C level speaker or perhaps thank TH for bringing the ship around and replace him. Again, now is not the time.
    Jun 24, 2013. 07:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unwinding Crowded BlackBerry Short Trade Can Choke Short Sellers [View article]
    I suggest Nokia will be bought long before BlackBerry
    Jun 22, 2013. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unwinding Crowded BlackBerry Short Trade Can Choke Short Sellers [View article]
    System,

    Got it, thanks.
    Long
    Jun 22, 2013. 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unwinding Crowded BlackBerry Short Trade Can Choke Short Sellers [View article]
    Wiesje

    And thank you for the intelligent discussion points.
    Jun 22, 2013. 02:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unwinding Crowded BlackBerry Short Trade Can Choke Short Sellers [View article]
    Opinion only

    Yes I feel the plan is working.

    They were selling curve, bold and torch.

    Curve was a great starter phone but on a aging OS.
    Bold was the work phone, super phone, aging OS.
    Torch was the iPhone killer, not so much.. good phone, aging OS.

    Now

    Curve will be Q5/Z5, great phone with great OS.
    Bold is Q10, great OS.
    Torch is Z10, but relevant as an iPhone competitor.
    And now we add the A10, something completely different and new, fast, cool.
    Don't underestimate what BBM is going to do for ecosystem.
    BES10.1 should also show substantial sales this current quarter( September earnings report) and even more following quarter.
    Jun 22, 2013. 11:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Unwinding Crowded BlackBerry Short Trade Can Choke Short Sellers [View article]
    Although having no iPhone coming out during BlackBerry platform release was a positive, BlackBerry must be able to retain or grow market share each year and each year will see new products from Apple, Samsung and Nokia. I am not sure what you think the S4 was suppose to be other than spectacular, even if it wasn't, but then, neither was the iPhone 5.

    BlackBerry will be a good investment strategy if they...

    Stabilize user base (Q2-3)
    Then
    Grow parallel to market growth (Q3-4)
    Then
    Increase market share (Q4-1)
    Note: this is already happening in some countries

    Continue to add / replace devices on a quarterly basis.
    Keep gross margin around 40%
    Increase EPS each quarter

    I am not sure of your comments regarding cheap phones. Q5 is not a cheap phone. BlackBerry will most likely continue to sell three levels of phones, none of them cheap, all premium phones, just at three price points. BlackBerry has always sold lower cost phones into emerging markets and will continue to do so.

    The plan?

    Keep doing what they are doing.
    3-4 quarters of positive numbers will stabilize stock, make it less interesting to shorts.
    Jun 22, 2013. 09:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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