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mrabody

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  • BlackBerry: India Import Data Appears To Show Z Phone Imports Doubling In June [View article]
    These numbers won't be for the Z3 launch. The Z3 is manufactured in Indonesia, these phones are from Mexico, China and Taiwan, so more likely Z10, and Z30.
    Jul 2 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Ignored Junk, BlackBerry Just Piled In It [View article]
    "What still puzzles me is that why is blackberry OS not rolling out updates on high gear ? Between 10.1 and 10.3 there is not much change. Contrast iOS 5 to 6 to 7 or Android gingerbread to kitkat."

    The BB10 has only been out a little over a year and in that time it has been updated to 10.1 and 10.2. 10.3 is due out later this year and promises more significant changes. New IOS versions are released at yearly intervals. Android Gingerbread was introduced in 2010 and Kitkat three years later. Not sure how this equates to Blackberry being slow to update BB10.
    May 13 11:10 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry turns negative; Chen promises QWERTY phone push [View news story]
    Oh dear, the Q20 isn't a low-cost phone, and it hasn't even launched yet.
    Mar 28 02:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Phablet Will Kill BlackBerry [View article]
    So I guess Apple is toast then since they don't have a phablet.
    Mar 27 03:50 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry BBM Is Not WhatsApp [View article]
    This article is incoherent. Bofah starts off by claiming that Whatsapp's strength lies in it's simple business model - No ads! No Games! No Gimmicks! Instead its revenue is generated through an annual subscription. This conveniently ignores the fact that Whatsapp is no longer it's own company but is now a part of Facebook whose business model does incorporate ads, games, and other gimmicks. Furthermore he conveniently leaves aside the fact that Whatsapp's current revenues are miniscule and even if every person who downloads the app chooses to subscribe once the first year is up the revenues per user are still only a quarter of those earned by Wechat for example. Furthermore Zuckerberg has stated that he intends to monetise Whatsapp once it hits a billion users (yup that would be ads, games and gimmicks). So the whole initial premise that Whatsapp's strength is its current business model falls apart.

    Bofah then rambles on about how Facebook is losing popularity due to the lack of privacy but maintains despite evidence to the contrary (see above reference to Zuckerberg's comments about monetising Whatsapp) that Whatsapp will keep this demographic because of it's current low-revenue business model. He then slams BBM as being excessively complicated due to it using PINs rather than mobile numbers. His conclusion - Facebook/Whatsapp will bury BBM.

    So as I understand it - Bofah's argument is that Whatsapp has succeeded because of the non-intrusive of personal privacy but low-revenue generating nature of its business model. He then maintains that despite the very high price paid for it by Facebook a company with a very different business model and the avowed intention of Mark Zuckerberg to monetise Whatsapp, Facebook will maintain the current business model and this will allow Whatsapp to bury BBM which is more complicated to use but also offers privacy. He makes this argument while maintaining that Facebook is losing popularity due to it's intrusions into its users' privacy.

    As I said, incoherent.
    Feb 27 07:44 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Prem Watsa Playing Bluff Poker With BlackBerry? [View article]
    If Watsa is simply bluffing why put in a 3% penalty clause which by all accounts is pretty steep. If he's trying to flush out higher bids then why make it less attractive to bid on Blackberry. Obviously $157M would help make up some of the loss that he would take if a bid came in at $12 but if it makes higher bid less attractive then it may be counter-productive.

    I can't see Fairfax having much difficulty in raising funds to buy out Blackberry. They're getting inventory which despite being heavily written down still has some value. They're getting service revenue which is apparently close to $800M this past quarter and even if it shrinks and is wound down over the next couple of years, it still represents a high-margin source of income. They're getting patents. They're getting several components of the business that appear to have a future, namely BBM, BES and QNX.
    Sep 24 02:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry to be acquired by Fairfax-led consortium for $9/share [View news story]
    Well what was announced on Friday would have had to be announced this coming Friday anyway when they issued their quarterly report and the stock would have tanked then. And given how badly they appear to have "missed" they had to issue an earnings warning.

    That doesn't mean there has been no manipulation to drive the stock down. Look at how they've changed the reporting requirements for BB10 revenue - previously it was reported upon being shipped to vendors, now it is only reported on sell-through to the end user. Now they can't report sales of BB10 phones twice, so presumably any BB10 phones that were shipped in Q1 but sold to the end user in Q2 were accounted for in the Q1 figures. So for all we know there may have been a healthy increase of BB10 sell-through in Q2 compared to Q1 but when looking at what is reported there appears to be a drop in the sale of handsets.

    Likewise, they've just written off nearly $1 billion in stock? Was this necessary? Did they need to write it down this drastically? It sure made headlines and it helped knock the share price down below what Fairfax is offering.

    Friday's announcement wasn't planned in order to tank the stock, but the decisions leading to that announcement are certainly worth taking a very close look at.
    Sep 23 08:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry plunges 20% [View news story]
    At this rate, Prem Watsa will be taking Blackberry private at a very good price. Watching the last few months unfold it's as if those in charge are intent on driving the company into the ground.

    The results for Q1 while not brilliant weren't terrible and were in line with the previous quarter's guidance. If the company had issued an earnings guidance reiterating that a couple of weeks before announcing the Q1 earnings they could have prevented a lot of the negativity that has since engulfed the stock and kept control of the narrative.

    Then they had to go and announce that they were exploring strategic alternatives creating further uncertainty about the company's future and thereby killing sales this quarter. Now maybe this quarter wouldn't have been great anyway, but this almost certainly has cost them a good deal of sales, particularly enterprise sales, in the meantime making this quarter worse than it would have been otherwise.

    It's unbelievable. I'm sure the people running Blackberry are intelligent, but their management of the company these past few months boggles the mind.
    Sep 21 04:35 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry plunges 20% [View news story]
    Well, it looks as if Prem Watsa will be taking the company private for at a very good price.

    It's as if those running the company want it to fail. Q1 results weren't brilliant but were in line with the previous quarters guidance, and were comparable or better than Nokia's early sales figures for its Lumia range. Simply issuing an earnings guidance a week or so before the Q1 results were released reiterating that the company expected to approach break-even as they had previously projected would prevented the eruption of negative sentiment that ensued.

    Then having fed the "Blackberry is doomed" narrative by simply failing to manage expectations they went and announced that they would explore strategic options, creating further uncertainty which has no doubt killed their sales over the past month. Even if the past quarter was a poor one they still had the Z30 and BBM for Android and IOS that would have created some positive buzz in the media going into Q3 and the leadup to Christmas.

    The problem now is that such a stench of failure permeates the whole company it will be extremely hard to gain any traction moving forward. Which is a shame as I think BB10 is an elegant piece of engineering and far more capable than most if not all of the competition and making BBM available to competing platforms could potentially generate a lot of revenue moving forward.

    If I were a Blackberry shareholder I'd be booking an appointment with my lawyer.

    Sep 21 04:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is BlackBerry Making A Comeback In The United States? Some Data Suggest It Is [View article]
    The 2.7m figure was sales for Q1 2013, the quarter that ended in May, which was right around the time the Q10 was released in the US. So if sales jumped following the release of the Q10 then would be in line with what the statcounter results tell us.

    That said, it could also be as another commenter has suggested - that owners of BB10 phones use them to access the internet more often than owners of older BB handsets, though even this implies that BB10 phones are selling to some degree.
    Aug 17 03:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Throwing In The Towel On My BlackBerry Shares [View article]
    Not every business user is a stockbroker, or an active investor.
    Jun 25 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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