NoFate

Time to Reconsider REIT ETFs

If you look at IYR since 2000 it looks just like the Case-Shiller Housing Index. It was flat from 2000-2003 then shot up from $40 to $95 between 2003 and 2007. Now it is down to ~$66. Hardly a bargain ...and hardly worth comparing to T-bills which are risk free.

Housing prices still have a long decline ahead ...and CRE is starting to roll over as well. Add to this the credit crunch, reduced consumption and unemployment that awaits us and buying long here is a very risky proposition.

IYR addmittedly got a nice bounce out of the emergency Fed cut, but at least wait for a higher low before buying.

Disclosure: I continue to hold SRS, which are still in the money.