NoFate

Predicting Recessions: Identifying Reliable Sources

All harbingers of a recession:
1) As noted, temp worker numbers are a good indication.
2) How inverted the yield curve has been (3 month versus 10 tear).
3) New home sales has generally cross the 600 million mark as we enter a recession.
4) There are other good indicators as shown here:
www.econbrowser.com/ar...

All these indicators are moving in the wrong direction, though none are certain yet.

What are poor predictors of recession:
1) UE - it usually hits it's lowest point when the recession starts.
2) Last quarters earnings numbers ...they can turn on a dime.
3) Economists - They are notoriously bad at predicting recessions (and even bubbles for that matter - Shiller being the exception).