NoFate

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    • Wed Mar 5th 18:07 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Federal Reserve, the Economy, and Stocks
      Let Us Have Peace - SOLD TO YOU!

      There are NO technical indications that we are at a bottom ...and using treasury yield ratios is pretty friggin arcane if you ask me. You might use that kind of information as a part of your analysis, but are you really willing to hang your entire thesis on that??

      And sometimes when more people are bearish than usual it just means stocks are going down further. When people were bullish for 5 years it didn't mean we were peaking did it?

      Guys - There are HUGE problems out there ...maybe the Fed will save the day, but we essentially still have the same set of problems we did 6-9 months ago ...except they have just gotten far worse. Nothing has been fixed at all. Why should I have faith that things aren't gonna get alot worse before they get better?
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 5th 14:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      CNBC's Gasparino Joining the Plunge Protection Team?
      This was done purposely to manipulate the market. The complete lack of real information and the timing are a dead give away. So where are the GD cops??

      For those who think this is ok because you are on the right side of the trade remember that this won't always be the case.

      Between the Ambac deal itself (which is fraud ...AAA? Really??) and all the market manipulation we are looking more and more like a banana republic.

      Apparently George W. didn't F up everything in 7 years. The SEC, Federal Reserve, state regulators, investment bankers and rating agencies are hard at work finishing the job though.
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 5th 14:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Federal Reserve, the Economy, and Stocks
      It's called a business cycle Jeff ...get over it.

      We are in a confirmed Bear market ...until we confirm a new Bull market we will be in a Bear market and we should act accordingly.

      Finally, there are many relevant blogs out there ...the Big Picture, CR , Mish, Roubini, etc. Their arguments are usually MUCH stronger than "the Fed is working on it" or "the Fed said so", so no worries!
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 5th 14:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Risk of Missing a Reentry When the Market Turns
      I completely disagree ...there were many indicators back in 2002-03 that indicates a bottom:
      - double bottom / higher low
      - reverse death cross
      - 200DMA turned back up
      - broke the trend line
      - probably a ton of other tech indicators I don't even know

      I am far more scared of GETTING another 30% drop than LOSING the first 10% rise in the new bull market. This is particularly true since there is NO indication we are at a bottom yet.

      Further, gold is unpredictable ...particularly now that it has gone parabolic! As a small percentage of a portfolio or a tightly monitored trade I think it is great, but the bottom can fall out quickly.

      Finally, the only thing I find predictable in this market is that equities will drop further. The trend is your friend ...cash + QID, SDS, TWM, etc. until we confirm a bottom ...then go long again. This really shouldn't be all that complicated ...and if things do turn out like 2001-03 we still have a loooong way to fall yet.
      View article »
    • Wed Mar 5th 02:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Sell Side Still Sees S&P 500 Up 20% by Year's End
      1591 ...Bwa Ha Ha Ha Ha!

      Aren't these the same guys who predicted 12% earnings growth in Q407 (and 14% this quarter)??

      Rhetorical question...
      View article »
    • Thu Feb 28th 04:10 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Wells Fargo's Latest Memo a Sign Real Estate is Bottoming?
      This memo means Wells expects housing to drop up to 25% more in non-overheated markets. That is hardly a bullish indicator.

      Based on the CS Index housing prices are falling faster than any time in US history. Catch a falling broadsword?

      And yeah, they are way late ...along with everyone else. They probably don't have much margin left to make loans anyway though ...and they sure can't sell the mortgages to anyone else.
      View article »
    • Mon Feb 25th 05:38 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How to Help Both Homeowners and Lenders, at No Public Cost
      This might work if house prices were allready stable, but they will very likely fall alot further. This results in:
      1) The warrents being useless.
      2) The owner still ending up underwater.

      This slows down the inevitable by lowering the mortgage payment for a while, but that's about it. Eventually the owner will still probably walk away.

      What scares me is the bank bail-out floating around congress these days. They essentially want this ...except they want FHA insurance to cover any further drops below current market price.

      I didn't know so many bankers were communists!
      View article »
    • Fri Feb 22nd 02:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Still Too Early to Celebrate Dow and S&P 500 Rise
      Aidis - Truer words were never spoke. There is no indication of a bottom. Have we broken the trend line or has the 50DMA broken above the 200DMA ...not even close. There is not even a higher low. Why are people in such a hurry to throw their money away??

      steven and Dana - SOLD TO YOU!
      View article »
    • Thu Feb 21st 04:13 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing: Is it Going to Get Worse Before it Gets Better?
      How do you bailout a potential loss of $5 trillion? There was $10 trillion in fake housing value created in the past 5 years. If housing prices drop 25%, that's $5 trillion.

      Also, who cares what the Fed sets the rate to? Who in their right mind is going to borrow money to buy a depreciating asset (unless it is a NEGATIVE interest rate)?

      The market will have to sort it out. Banks will fail. People will hurt. Companies will go bankrupt. Government will do what it can. The quicker and cleaner we can work thru this 5 year long "misappropriation of capital" the better off we will be.
      View article »
    • Thu Feb 21st 03:55 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the Worst Behind Us?
      Zach - Pick a side dude ...long, short or cash ...what's it going to be?

      You indicate that you don't think we are at a bottom ...but if investors want to go long that's ok too.

      That's kind of like saying there is no water in the pool ...but if you REALLY want to go swimming then jump in!
      View article »
    • Thu Feb 7th 02:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buying the Oversold Financial Sector
      Why people rush back in to bottom fish when every technical indicator screams BEAR is beyond me. Why not wait for a higher low? If it is REALLY near a low then it will rattle around down here for the next year as the other sectors come crashing down around it.

      I really doubt it is a low though. As others have pointed out, there is still serious unwinding ahead with housing foreclosures, other forms of credit defaulting and additional mortgage backed debt imploding (because of the first two and the ratings games).

      No sir, I think we are just about getting started here. Them financial folks dug themselves a nice big hole.
      View article »
    • Thu Feb 7th 02:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What the Housing 'Apocalypse' Prophets Aren't Revealing
      If the author had posted such drivel as a comment he would be known as a TROLL. As the actual author I'm not quite sure how to address him.

      There are 2 numbers I need. First, we have a 10 month supply of unsold homes. Second, the Case Shiller Composite registered the first annual drop since WWII ...and the graph looks like we are stepping off a cliff!

      What is it with you guys? You read some numbers you don't understand and suddenly you are an EXPERT?!

      Anyway, SOLD TO YOU! What a rube...
      View article »
    • Thu Feb 7th 02:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      America's Middle Class: Living Large
      It's bad enough mixing economics and politics ...but to throw in reality TV just ads insult to injury.

      Seriously though, I think our generation is doing ok. The reality though is that our kids are sceeeee-rewed.

      If we can't turn around the rising cost of SS, MC, the National Debt, energy crisis, environmental damage, etc.

      Sorry, but our biggest threat IS NOT al Queda. It is the baby boomers retiring and the Chinese/Indian middle classes in 30-40 years.
      View article »
    • Sat Feb 2nd 04:07 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      When the Going Gets Tough, the NAR Advertises
      Oh, and how can we tell we are nearing a bottom?

      When the Case-Shiller composite starts to flatten out. Housing turns slooooowly ...not like stocks. Right now the CS chart looks like a cliff dive!

      Anybody who thinks we near a bottom took one too many bong hits.
      View article »
    • Sat Feb 2nd 04:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      When the Going Gets Tough, the NAR Advertises
      How can you tell someone at NAR is lying? Yup, their mouth is moving.

      I am simply amazed that some bright young attorney hasn't filed a class action law suit against these morons yet.

      These bastards are no better than boiler room pump monkeys.
      View article »
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