NoFate

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    • Fri Feb 1st 01:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investors Get a Glimpse of the Future
      Nobody has the right skill set for putting together a bailout plan.

      Tell me who has $200billion laying around they want to flush down a toilet? Seriously ...if you are going to lose the money anyway why give it to someone else to lose for you??

      Finally, I think your 1.25% cut raised got you about 40 points on the S&P in 8 days. I barely lost anything on my ultra shorts!

      Guess we can head back down again now! :)
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 31st 20:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time to Reconsider REIT ETFs
      If you look at IYR since 2000 it looks just like the Case-Shiller Housing Index. It was flat from 2000-2003 then shot up from $40 to $95 between 2003 and 2007. Now it is down to ~$66. Hardly a bargain ...and hardly worth comparing to T-bills which are risk free.

      Housing prices still have a long decline ahead ...and CRE is starting to roll over as well. Add to this the credit crunch, reduced consumption and unemployment that awaits us and buying long here is a very risky proposition.

      IYR addmittedly got a nice bounce out of the emergency Fed cut, but at least wait for a higher low before buying.

      Disclosure: I continue to hold SRS, which are still in the money.
      View article »
    • Tue Jan 29th 00:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Case Against Leveraged ETFs
      Angela - I think your 5/15 SMA tool is good for Bull markets, but may be dangerous in a Bear market. The high volatility is the problem ...if the market suddenly plunges for a day and then does a moonshot the next day you can find yourself on the wrong side of the trade (and it could be expensive).

      This is similar to the problems with the MACD ...which is a similar tool. By the time the crossover occurs the market has often moved on (like last week ...both directions).
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 28th 02:14 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Barron's Roundtable Update: Where Do We Go From Here?
      Didn't Abby Joseph Cohen think Tech was cheap in January 2000? Fool me once shame on you...
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 28th 01:48 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Selling Over? I'm Just Not Buying It.
      Bush is going to sign into law a economic stimulus package that helps POOR PEOPLE! Admit it ...we got serious problems people!
      View article »
    • Sun Jan 27th 14:55 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Only Tax Cuts Will Work in the Long Run
      Forgive me for being cynical, but I think it is much simpler than that. They are ALL simply pandering to their base. It's just that the Libs base would spend their money quicker than the Cons base.

      In politics they all start with the answer they want (more tax cuts, food stamps, whatever...) and then they form an argument to support it.

      Good economic policy should start with the problem and then search for the best solution.

      It is a mistake to confuse politics and economics.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 21st 21:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bear Turns Mildly Bullish
      7 con't) US consumes 40% of World GDP. Our economy is $13 trillion ...India and China combined is around $2 trillion. They are sceeee-rewed without the US consumer.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 21st 21:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Bear Turns Mildly Bullish
      Here are some facts:

      1) The trend is your friend. The trend is down.

      2) DEFLATION is coming. Bank margins are toast and credit is drying up quickly.

      3) Loans are future earnings. MEW got spent allready and foreclosures destroy wealth ($2-3 trillion problem).

      4) It doesn't matter how F-ing great America is ...recessions happen. Always have and always will.

      5) Cash is KING! BUY LOW ...wait for a true bottom, don't catch a falling knife.

      6) Equities can ALWAYS go lower. NASDAQ went from >5000 to 1200 in 3 years. Anyone want to argue this point.

      7) The Decoupling theory is BS. Emerging Markets are going down also. They may go from 12% growth to 4 or 6% ...but you think this is not going to affect their stock price??

      8) Stock valuations are based on FORWARD looking PEs. Wall Street still thinks US earnings are going to increase 14% in 2008 and this is what the E in the PE is based on. Goldman finally came out with -6% recently. How do you think this is going to affect things?

      Any more questions?
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 21st 20:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      'Slow Growth' Or Recession?
      Fed rate cuts take at least a year to have an effect ...and housing is still going to be on the injured list.

      Why do you think Bernanke went to Congress with hat in hand asking for a stimulus package?? He knows there is nothing left he can do in the short term.

      And CONFIDENCE in the market?? That walked away 3 weeks ago with the lousy Xmas sales and the 5% UE rate.

      Whether you sell now or sell into a rally ...I honestly don't know what's best at this point. This market is seriously wounded and is not getting back up for a long time. Plan accordingly.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 21st 12:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Recession Could Be Boon for Stocks - WSJ
      Yes, the market usually rebounds prior to recession end (though it did not last time!) ...however average peak to trough is around 20% in the S&P. This is hardly good news...
      View article »
    • Sun Jan 20th 03:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday's Outlook: Stick a Fork in Mr. Market
      There is going to be $2-3 trillion in housing value that will go *poof!* in the next few years. Peoples LTV will be underwater and many will walk away? Do you have a clue what this will do to mortgage backed securities and bank margins?

      Do you realize that an increase of >0.5% unemployment from the low has signaled a recession with 100% accuracy since WWII? The last report came in at 0.6%.

      These are 2 of many indications that things are going to get rough. The signals are all around you, but you have to be willing to look and listen.

      What will you do when you realize the analysts telling you recession is on the way are actually the smart guys in the room? How do you plan to get your principle back?
      View article »
    • Sun Jan 20th 03:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Oversold U.S. Market Gets Even More Oversold
      Toro - I would not apologize to any of these morons. I got your point. The MACD can go alot lower and we haven't seen the blue and red cross yet. When they cross it is often a good entry or exit point.

      All - I think the big investors got caught flat footed this time (except Goldman) ...many Investment Banks and Hedge Funds have had their ass handed to them. I'm more than happy to take anyone's money who is stupid enough to stay long in this market.

      Further, buy and hold is a good investment plan?? You gotta be kidding me! I think you could do something as simple as go short when the 200 DMA turns down and go long when it turns up again. This should return at least 50% more than buy and hold ...and there are MUCH better models out there!

      Finally, I am sensing alot of sour grapes in these postings. Everybody is an expert in a bull market, but you actually get tested in a bear market. Suddenly everyone on CNBC, Cramer, Kudlow and the rest of the parade of bozos don't seem so smart anymore.
      View article »
    • Sat Jan 19th 16:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Fear Is Palpable. Time To Buy.
      The average peak to trough for the DOW during a recession since WWII has been around 10.5 months. If you think this is over you are smoking crack.

      If you think there is a near term bottom soon I believe that is entirely possible. There should be at least a few sucker rallys on the way down. It won't go in a straight line.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 16th 21:20 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Bear's Questions: Floyd Norris
      Home price depreciation WILL be caused by the following by the way:
      - 10.5 month supply of homes.
      - Home price fundamentals out of whack compared to rental cost, construction cost and median family income. All three of these remained fairly flat as housing prices shot to the moon.

      View article »
    • Wed Jan 16th 21:14 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Bear's Questions: Floyd Norris
      Ummm Exchange3D I think your tail is wagging your dog. Homes caused the current financial crisis and are likely to continue to cause problems.

      Home prices doubled in the last 6-7 years ...the idea of a 20-30% slide in housing prices over the next few years is very possible. This would leave millions underwater in their mortgage debt and many will walk away.

      Considering $5-6 trillion was added to home values in the past 6 years, $2-3 trillion in home values could simply evaporate as prices drop. This will have the following effects:
      - MEW is gone reducing GDP
      - ARM resets and underwater LTV will cause huge numbers of foreclosures. Many people will mail their keys to the bank and walk away.
      - Bank margins will be triggered causing additional credit restriction.
      - Mortgage backed securities will implode around the world as fewer mortgage payments are made.
      - Companies insuring this debt will burn through their margins and then go bankrupt.
      - And on and on.

      There will be blood flowing in the streets if houses take a 30% haircut.
      View article »
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