NoFate

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    • Wed Jan 16th 12:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bear Markets Have Rallies Too
      I think your orange line is bogus and your brown line is a neckline for the head and shoulder.

      Anyway, I agree with your assessment. I plan to add short positions on the rally's and sell all the shorts at the bottom.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 16th 05:51 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      A Bear Market: Where Good News is Punished
      When Financials sell more shares to foreign countries at a discount it DILUTES the current shares. Of course they drop!

      And 70% of company stock price movements are determined by the rest of the sector and the economy. If Intel can't sell enough chips, then plenty of other tech companies ain't gonna have good quarters either.

      If you are long, then sell. The market is telling you that your thesis is wrong.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 16th 05:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Market Response to Recessions
      This chart is misleading and your argument is BS.

      The point made by the WSJ and Barry is that often stocks bottom during the recession and rebound significantly before the recession officially ends. You can't really know that at the time though, because you may not "officially" even be in a recession yet!

      The point YOU appear to be making is that we may already BE at a bottom. You give no evidence to support this however ...other than the possibility a recession started in December and now we might be at a bottom.

      Ok, this happened once ...there was a 1 month peak to trough crash of about 20% in 1980. The average peak to trough coinciding with recessions is 11.5 months though. We probably have 10 months to go (if we are lucky).

      Finally, I will consider that the market has priced in earnings losses when it stops REACTING to them. We had a 2% loss in the S&P today because of the Citi write-down. Intel missed earnings after the bell and shaved 2.5% off the NASDAQ in after hours ...probably a big gap down in the morning.

      The trend is your friend ...and the trend is DOWN! You can't fight the tape. When you see higher highs and higher lows again then talk to me about a turnaround.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 16th 04:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Market Response to Recessions
      Sold to YOU!
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 14th 01:32 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Investing in a Downturn: Timing Is Key
      What is so hard about timing? Short market indices when the 200 DMA is going down and buy long when it is going up.

      I'm sure there are far better models than this, but if you back test this I'm sure it does much better than buy and hold.
      View article »
    • Mon Jan 14th 00:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      My 10 Predictions for 2008
      Wow, tough crowd! For what it's worth I thought it was a decent article... and I agreed with much of it.

      My primary differences:

      - The US $ may not drop, since other economies may suck worse than ours eventually. Plus with equity in homes being destroyed, this may kill bank leverage and reduce the number of $s floating around.

      - I doubt another war ...seems a bit of a stretch with less than a year left and most of the neocons (except Chaney who is elected) have scampered away to hide.

      - A Democrat will win the Presidency ...unless the Republicans get smart enough to get behind McCain ...or Bloomberg runs as Independent. Then it's any body's guess ...though I would give the edge to Bloomberg, then the Dem, then McCain.
      View article »
    • Sun Jan 13th 23:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      BoA Buys Countrywide - Implications for Main Street
      I hope there were not taxpayer funded inducements to make it happen. That is called communism, moral hazard, collusion, and a bunch of other even worse words...
      View article »
    • Sun Jan 13th 23:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Consensus Economist Estimates Don't Suggest a Recession
      This is known to be one of the worst recession indicators. About a month AFTER the NASDAQ crash something like 33% of Economists predicted a recession. "It's just Wall St. ...it won't affect Main St. ...blah, blah, blah." Anyway, there is ZERO correlation...

      What does have a correlation is when UE increases >0.5% from it's trough it has correctly predicted every recession 100% of the time since WWII. We are currently up 0.6%.

      Guess what? Expect a recession.
      View article »
    • Sat Jan 12th 18:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      BoA Buys Countrywide - Implications for Main Street
      "On the other hand, existing homeowners whose mortgages are being serviced by Countrywide should probably be breathing a sigh of relief. No one wants a bankrupt loan servicer, and now they know that isn't a risk any more."

      I don't get this either. My home loan is CW ...if they go bankrupt they may not have to pay some creditors, but I'm sure they will still want my monthly payment. If their book of business gets sold off, I'm sure they will tell me where to send my monthly check. Further, they can't call in early payment of home loans even if it is legal and somewhere in the small print ...it would simply stop the income flow and force additional foreclosures.

      I am far more worried about the implications say of E*Trade. I transfered a large account out of there last month. If they go bankrupt my investments were fully insured ...but I might not have access to them for months (to trade or withdrawal)! Now that could be painful.

      Anyway, if my assessment is wrong, please explain why.
      View article »
    • Sat Jan 12th 18:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      BoA Buys Countrywide - Implications for Main Street
      "The combined company will have 25% of all mortgage-origination business: in the UK, that would officially make it a monopoly."

      Sorry to be so picky, but this is kind of like calling Bush the 2nd a dictator. He may have exceeded his specified powers (not to mention common sense), but he still has limits to his power.

      Similarly, 25% market share is hardly a monopoly. This would be an Oligopoly ...if the others are also large. If they are not, then it is still pure competition.
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 10th 20:40 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Countrywide Takeover By BoA Would Make Sense
      My concern is that the Fed is involved. If they backstop BofA losses they are bailing out investors with taxpayer money. I don't know what other leverage they might have to try to push this forward. I can't image BofA would be that interested after they already got burned at $18/share. I smell a big fat rat here...
      View article »
    • Thu Jan 10th 02:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Does Market Timing Actually Work?
      This article lacks context ...it's all over the map.

      Missing the best and worst days isn't the point ...too granular. Unless you are a day trader you are not in and out of the market that much.

      Then your PE comments seemed to conclude you could time the market. In fact Hussman has a great article about using some very basic criteria to determine when to enter and exit. Using what he called this very crude method generated significantly more profits over time (using PEs as one of the criteria).

      The problem is you can time the market. You could probably make more money simply buying or selling depending when the 200 DMA goes flat than simply buy and hold.

      It is just psychologically very uncomfortable and it takes time.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 9th 13:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why Technical Analysis is Nonsense
      There are at a minimum several benefits of TA:

      1) At the very least provides a framework in an otherwise context free environment.

      2) Certainly the more macro signals are powerful ...lower highs and lower lows, double bottoms, etc. Ignore these things at great peril.

      3) It is hard to prove support and resistance levels, etc. because TA is trumped by the economy, news and earnings ...often slicing through TA levels like butter. But these levels also often hold when other forces are not moving the market.

      4) Many people know TA and therefore some predictions become self fulfilling prophesies.

      I too come at investing from an academic background ...Economics degree and MBA ...and I regret listening to many of my professors (who meant well). TA is an attempt to determine the impact of psychology on the market, which is a severly understudied phenomena.

      During my studies all I heard was "random walk" ...which is probably accurate for the very short term ...but tell me the NASDAQ took a random walk from 5200 to 1200 at the beginning of the century. What a load of crap.

      Not just in investing, but in life ...always be skeptical, but also always be open to new ideas.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 9th 13:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Market Perception and Reality
      Jeff, it is obvious that you are wrong.

      The Fed is nearly useless and the true state of the economy is finally being reported and understood.

      I look forward to your article "S&P 3000" after the bounce into the next fools rally.
      View article »
    • Wed Jan 9th 04:36 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Analysts See Dow Rising Sharply in 2008
      "We have often pointed out that analyst price targets should be taken with a grain of salt."

      Ummm ...should be taken with a salt mine in this case.

      Interesting article, but it seems the main conclusion is how laughable analyst's price targets really are.
      View article »
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