NoFate

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    • Tue Nov 27th 17:34 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      History Shows Current Correction Unlikely to Become Full-Fledged Bear Market
      The article states that there is a 24% chance that this correction will extend to a bear market based on past history. That is all well and good, but what are the details that made the difference in the past?

      The reason I speculate is because I think I can apply my knowledge and experience to better use than putting my money on black twice at the roulette table (~24% chance).

      There are much better models out there for predicting the probability of a recession, but you have to understand them ...and be able to filter out the hidden agendas and the noise.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 27th 16:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Can the November Market Predict the Election?
      I find this article misleading at best. I'm not even quite sure what the premise is. Based on the authors table there was 2 out of 5 down Novembers where the President changed (but not necessarily the party). This is hardly statistically conclusive evidence!

      This also seems to imply that any change in the President has a negative impact on the markets (possibly due to the unknown). We knew there would be a different President in 2009 since November of 2004 though! Why does this information only affect the markets only in Novembers prior to election years??

      No, the markets are reflection the fact that the past 5 years has created $4-5 trillion in housing inflation...primarily based on fraud. Yes, the fraud of selling homes to people who could never make the full payments ...and the fraud of selling AAA rated paper to institutions that was truly worth pennies on the dollar.

      Now someone has to eat that bad debt ...which means lowered earnings ...which means lay-offs ...which will likely cause a recession ...and this is what the market is reflecting.
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 25th 00:59 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I Increased My Double Shorts
      jswede - Here is a good argument for recession:
      www.hussmanfunds.com/w...

      Personally, I think we will end up with a slow-growth stagflation or a deep deep recession (maybe depression), but not sure which yet. Partly depends on the Fed, but their decisions typically have a 6-9 month lag time.
      View article »
    • Sun Nov 25th 00:53 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bear Market In Store Following Wednesday's Fall?
      Mark Anthony - Once we hit bottom the US will be a good deal ...until then, they are better off selling.

      jcarpen1 - Wow, someone more bearish than me! I think we are going further down, but I don't know how far. Could end in stagflation (with slow growth, not negative) or depression in my mind. Not sure which yet.

      David - I think you are just being modest, but am not sure. How often has Dow Theory been right? Hussman's 2nd most recent article is rather scary and would seem to support your premise: www.hussmanfunds.com/w...

      All - The cool thing about the markets is that you get to vote (with your money) and then you get to find out who is right. Money talks and BS walks... this will be sorted out in the next few months. I hope to be richer, but we shall see.
      View article »
    • Sat Nov 24th 02:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      SPX: Flat for the Year
      Yes bearsfullofbull ...lets kill the messenger.

      In fact lets blame everyone who disagrees with you for the problems at hand ...and while we are at it, lets give awards to mortgage brokers, appraisers, flippers, NAR, ratings agencies, Wall street (CDOs, SIVs, etc.), etc. for doing such an outstanding job.

      We have had a 5 year bull rally mostly based on FRAUD! And you want to blame the fracking Bloggers?? That's a bit like blaming the school newspaper for losing the football playoff.

      Anyway ...you guys don't think this is real? Great! Keep buying on the dips ...and I'll keep selling short on the peaks ...and we will see how this works itself out.
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 23rd 22:35 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bill Miller: Stocks Are "Very Attractive"
      First, the government numbers are wacked! Real inflation is not being reflected ...food and energy are through the roof. New jobs numbers "estimated" something like 40,000 new jobs last month in construction and finance ...huh??

      Second, whatever the Fed does to rates will take 6-9 months to take effect ...if it works this time. If home buyers and businesses can't get a loan it doesn't matter what the percentage is. If housing prices are spiraling downward demand will be low anyway.

      Finally, what is "very attractive" is obviously in the eye of the beholder. It still looks like a train wreck to me. Contagion is contained ...to this planet!

      My double shorts remain in place ...long positions are SOLD TO YOU!"
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 20th 23:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Strategists Refuse to Adjust Year-End Price Targets Despite Market Declines
      Those Wall Street guys always get the best drugs, don't they?!

      I look at it this way ...they got nothing to gain by lowering them do they?

      I wonder what the Year-End Price Targets are on their own stock <grin>?
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 20th 23:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Strategists Refuse to Adjust Year-End Price Targets Despite Market Declines
      Those Wall Street guys always get the best drugs, don't they?!

      I look at it this way ...they got nothing to gain by lowering them do they?

      I wonder what the Year-End Price Targets are on their own stock <grin>?
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 16th 17:15 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Approaching Recession? It's Already Here
      Good article ...however, the signs of recession have been there for months! Everyone kept quoting lagging indicators like unemployment ...or the stock market! That's like looking in the rear view mirror and saying "I don't see a wall coming!"

      So 4th quarter earnings estimates have dropped now from 12% growth to ~6% growth. How low do you think they will go? Or should I say, how negative do you think they will get?
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 24th 03:50 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Economist On the 'Limitations' of Central Bankers
      ya know ...the more Greenspan opens his mouth these days the less I think of him. I know he has a book to sell, but WTF. One minute we are out of the subprime woods and the next we are back again. This guy seems like an imbecile recently.

      What you are saying is right on though. There is no free lunch. Our massive debt is the reason the US$ keeps going down. It's the inevitable money flows trying to equalize and find the right level.

      Bottom line ...we are screwed. We have to pay back $8 trillion in debt before we have balance again.

      Um, sorry ...actually our children are screwed. They will have to pay back this debt ...as well as the transfer payments to Social Security and Medicaid for the baby boomers.

      I guess the Fed is hoping to inflate our way out of this. This is a great way to steal from the poor. At least now we know who is paying for the Iraq War.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 23rd 15:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday's Profit-Taking a Prelude to a Positive Earnings Week
      >> Friday's pause was seen as healthy profit-taking with a very cautious undertone.

      By who? You use such nuanced words it sounds like you are describing a fine wine (a fine whine?).

      What will drive prices higher?
      - The Q3 earnings growth for the S&P estimated now at -1/2%?
      - Maybe the Q4 estimated growth of 12%! If you buy into this I have a bridge I'd like to show you.
      - Tech can only take you so far...

      We are going into a slowdown and stocks are over valued based on past unrealistic peak earnings. Any bump they get will be short lived from here...
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 22nd 20:00 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Earnings Season So Far: 65% Beat Rate
      Isn't the S&P earnings rate to beat like 1/2 %?

      Isn't that kinda like targeting a D- and calling it a success if 65% of the class doesn't fail?
      View article »
    • Sun Oct 21st 16:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Margin Debt Grows; Risk Grows Too
      This chart is amazing ...it seems to indicate the psychology of the market is to buy high and sell low.
      View article »
    • Sun Oct 21st 15:46 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday's Selloff: Expecting More, But Then Recovery
      And just to clarify ...I'm just making the argument that earnings estimates for Q4 and beyond are way too high.

      This means P/Es should be higher than they are ...and as prices adjust to lower earnings estimates, I think we will see more days like Friday.
      View article »
    • Sun Oct 21st 15:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday's Selloff: Expecting More, But Then Recovery
      I think Citi kicked off the ugliness last Monday, but Friday's sell-off was no longer contained to financial or housing sectors.

      In Barry's words regarding the Friday sell-off, "3M (MMM), Honeywell (HON) and Caterpillar (CAT) were leading the charge lower."

      The paradigm has shifted ...the issues appear to have spilled over into the broader economy.
      View article »
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