NoFate

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    • Sun Oct 21st 06:17 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Friday's Selloff: Expecting More, But Then Recovery
      Roger, I respect your insight as well. And I think your emerging market comments are right on.

      I think the sell-off Friday goes well beyond liquidity though. The Q3 numbers are pointing to the fact that Q4 will not have 10% profit growth as predicted. This could ultimately kill PEs and take down the market.
      View article »
    • Sun Oct 21st 00:27 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Good Entry Point: S&P 500 Breadth Approaching Oversold Territory
      This was posted Thursday night on the Bespoke site ...how did that work out for ya?

      Earnings and the economy always trump technical analysis guys. CitiGroup earnings on Monday should have been a HUGE red flag...
      View article »
    • Sat Oct 20th 03:05 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Fed May Cut Rates Again: What Will Be the Reaction?
      TraderMark - Yeah, it could get ugly real fast. Which could prodiuce another cut ...but otherwise maybe not.

      Brian - WTF are you talking about?
      - The dollar is comprised of good and bad debt?
      - The non-working bourgeoisie fulfill their desires at a partial expense of equity to the capital or currency in the system?
      - The US itself is evil.
      Are you communist? We are talking about the probability of a rate cut and you are talking about the morality underlying capitalism (I think?). Capitalism won ...moving on!
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 18th 16:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Paulson Gets it Right on Housing
      This should have been titled "Paulson FINALLY Gets it Right on Housing".

      Shiller got it right on housing years ago ...Paulson may finally get it.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 18th 02:08 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      With Inflation Up and Housing Down, Diversification's Still Your Only Friend
      I agree with everything in this post except diversification as a conclusion. If we have a crash I expect everything to drop except maybe gold and some currencies.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 15th 20:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Debunking the Dow Transports Theory
      If you are going to debunk this theory don't you think you have to go back to before the last recession?

      You logic is similar to the following:
      A) In the past 5 days I saw dark clouds once.
      B) The dark clouds didn't produce rain.
      C) Because of B, the dark clouds today won't produce rain.

      This is a logical fallacy because:
      - The study only uses one prior example out of decades of possible data.
      - Doesn't even go back far enough to view the relationship during a downturn.

      I read this and automatically assume you are trying to hide a relationship that would be apparent if you went bad prior to 2002.
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 15th 05:47 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Do Profit Margins and P/E Ratios Say About Market Valuation?
      Thank You!!

      I thought stocks were overvalued based on peak earnings ...this explains it and provides some level of magnitude.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 11th 15:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Earnings Growth Expectations Turn Negative
      This is great info and I am thankful to BIG for posting ...but what are these numbers based on?

      It seems like the standard deviation is huge when you are attempting to predict earnings growth 15 months from now.

      Seems more like these are the numbers we need to keep the bull running and we will adjust them down 4-5 times as we get closer ...you know, like they did with Q307.
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 10th 14:19 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Is The Downside Of New Market Highs?
      I'm confused about PE and how it is being calculated. I think I read expected earnings growth for the S&P are:
      Q307 - 1.4%
      Q407 - 11%
      Q108 - 11%

      First of all, why hasn't the very low Q307 earnings growth estimate negatively impacted the PE? I keep hearing it is around 18 in every article I read.

      Second, why does anyone believe this quarter and next are going to generate 11% earnings growth?? Out of the other side of their mouth the media says the economy is slowing!

      Anyway, future earnings estimates are a fairly tale after the cycle peaks. I think they will at least drop in half, which would take the 18 PE (which is already very high pre90s) up to 36 (which is bubbleicious!).
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 10th 13:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Housing Market in Desperation
      I don't see blood in the streets yet. Next summer is going to be UGLY after all the resets ...bottom is maybe 2009 though.

      Also, I am not planning to shed a tear for the homebuilders. Anyone professional in this business who thought the bubble would expand forever is a moron. If they didn't prepare for this downturn, they deserve what they get.
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 9th 23:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Alcoa's Earnings: Barometer for the Market?
      Hmmmm ...maybe I'm getting too cynical. BIG posted this at 11:35 AM on their site, so it was before Alcoa!
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 9th 21:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Alcoa's Earnings: Barometer for the Market?
      Surprise me and tell me you posted this BEFORE Alcoa posted earnings!

      If you posted before Alcoa earnings - then you are neutral.

      But if you posted after Alcoa earnings - you did it to put a Bullish spin on the WSJ article.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 4th 17:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Contracting P/E Ratio Means This Bull May Still Have Legs
      >> This data bodes well for those arguing that this bull still has legs.

      Why? Do you think the PE will continue to drop ...or go back up to 30?

      The problem with this analysis is that the ONLY time S&P PEs were in the 30s was in the bubblicious 90s (and early 00s).

      This information is interesting in an academic way, but thats about it.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 4th 13:49 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      July Correction Now Officially Over
      Ah, but is the "sucker's rally" over?
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 3rd 04:42 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Fear an October Calamity
      This is the same kinda BS people were pushing back in 2000-2001. Sure the market crashed, but it will be contained and won't impact the broader economy. Sure ...uh huh!
      View article »
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