NoFate

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    • Wed Oct 3rd 04:40 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Don't Fear an October Calamity
      Sure, lets ignore the 10 month inventory and low consumer confidence and assume that the market will keep on rising ...because you know what? It rose in the past and therefore it must rise in the future!

      C'mon! A reduction in housing sales and MEW means a reduction in consumption. This means a reduction in GDP which will result in a recession.

      We have just experienced a 5 year expansion based primarily on housing debt ...why would the reduction in that same debt not put a HUGE drag on the economy?

      Of course maybe all the new jobs created by the new FORCLOSURE industry will be enough to dodge the recession bullet ...NOT!
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 3rd 04:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Citigroup Upgrades Four Homebuilders In Attempt To Call Bottom
      I have a bridge that I recently upgraded from Hold to Buy that I would like to discuss with you ...also some land in the middle of Florida and parts of the moon! :)

      The C-S futures index on the CBT has houses bottoming in 2-3 YEARS! Citigroup analysts must be complete MORONS!!
      View article »
    • Wed Oct 3rd 04:20 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Buybacks in Fashion, Market Headed Higher
      This is the dumbest thing I have seen.

      Lets buy back our stock at the peak and increase stock prices. Like they always say ...buy high, sell low!

      Christ ...put it in R&D or give out a dividend or buy another company ...but to buy your own stock at the peak???

      I guess if the company does it, then it's supposed to be sophisticated or something ...it's still retarded in my view!
      View article »
    • Mon Oct 1st 05:23 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Things Have Normalized... Or Have They?
      The artistic equivalent of this article would be to barf on a blank canvas.

      Sorry David, but I know you can do better than this! I like many of your other articles...
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 28th 13:59 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is the S & P Expensive?
      If this is supposed to show that PE is currently "normal" ...it doesn't.

      Do two things ...draw a horizontal line across the graph at about PE=18 and ignore the 90s (since it was a bubble). What you find is that 18 is close to the peaks in all cases ...and the valleys dip down to about 6.

      The only other period it stays significantly above PE=18 is pre1929 ...of course this doesn't strengthen your argument either.

      Final Note: A financial trick to determine expected return on a stock is to calculate 1/PE. When PE=18 you are expecting about a 5.6% return on your money. If this works for you then go for it.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 28th 01:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Robert Shiller's Real Track Record
      Sorry, I should have said "...attempt to discredit him."
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 27th 23:45 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Robert Shiller's Real Track Record
      Dr. Shiller has provided us with the only accurate housing price index in existence. God help us if we were dependent on NAR for this information!

      Further, he is the best economist at predicting bubbles ...I don't think he would claim more than that.

      Finally, for you to discredit him for more than that says more about you than it does Dr. Shiller.
      View article »
    • Wed Sep 26th 23:56 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Survey Says No Recession In Sight
      If you are going to show charts, show the WHOLE chart!

      You are comparing the numbers right after the NASDAQ crash and 9/11 to today and then draw conclusions from this?

      The poll said that 2/3 of Americans thought they were in a recession or would be IN THE NEXT 12 months. That means you have to also show the 12 months prior to March 2001 to accurately compare. I'm guessing they don't look too different from today huh?
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 22nd 16:51 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street and Main Street: How Long Before They Get it Right?
      Actually, here is a great summary article:

      online.barrons.com/art...

      Here are a couple choice quotes:

      "The moral imperative that inspired Mr. Bernanke to take down interest rates half a point instead of a quarter was to ease the pressure off the reeling housing market. In the event, though, he managed to steepen the Treasury yield curve, which means that the longer-term obligations, which effectively determine the level of mortgage rates, went up. Not, we suspect, the ideal medicine for what ails homebuilding."

      "It's also reckoned, they say, that a 15% decline in house prices -- not exactly outside the realm of possibility -- could wipe out $3 trillion of household net worth."

      "The incidental devaluation of the U.S. dollar sent the price of crude, which is denominated in dollars, barreling to an all-time high above $84 a barrel before it paused to take a breath. And the fresh debasement of our coin, coupled with prospects of a surge in inflation, powered a spurt in gold to nearly $745 an ounce, the highest price since January 1980, when it hit $850 as bungling Bunker Hunt tried to corner the market for the yellow metal."
      View article »
    • Sat Sep 22nd 16:24 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street and Main Street: How Long Before They Get it Right?
      You post a URL describing the views of the CEO of Morgan Stanly? Of COURSE he will be bullish ...it's his job to be bullish! What about the Shiller or Buffet articles ...a lot more pessimism there.

      Regarding the growing housing inventory ...it is growing because few people are buying. When few people buy homes it puts people out of work. It also means they don't buy new things for their homes.

      Also, when MEW dries up due to stricter lending and higher rates above $417k loans this is going to drive down consumption alot.

      Further, when all these ARMs reset two things will happen. Some will walk away leaving the bank holding a huge loss. Others will pay the higher amount, but it will cut into their consumption since wages have been flat for 7 years. A small group will refi into 30 year fixed, but only people with excellent credit will qualify.

      Anyway, the main point of this list was that these issues were generally unknown prior to July (except #6), yet the markets are nearly back to these high levels. What has happened that could possibly warrant this other than psychology?

      I used to think the markets were future looking by 6-12 months, but I now think they actually look backward. After all, the market has been great for 5 years, so how could this possibly change??
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 21st 22:47 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street and Main Street: How Long Before They Get it Right?
      Typo - That should have been:

      1) Housing at a 9.5 month inventory and rising fast.
      View article »
    • Fri Sep 21st 22:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Wall Street and Main Street: How Long Before They Get it Right?
      Here are your tsunamis:
      1) Housing at a 9/5 inventory and rising fast.
      2) MEW dropping drastically in Q3 after credit tightening.
      3) Rate of forecloseres more than doubling in August after credit tightening.
      4) ARM resets peak 3-6 months from now (much higher than current).
      5) Housing values declining for the first time since the depression (have you SEEN the Case-Shiller Index??).
      6) Trillions in debt added because of the housing bubble.
      7) US $ at a historic low.
      8) Huge deficit spending by the government.
      9) Mortgage companies and builders going bankrupt.
      10) A run on an over leveraged bank in England.
      11) Hedge funds leveraging exotic financial instruments (i.e. CDOs) 80 to 1.
      12) Unknown risk from mortgage backed securities spread around the world.
      13) Oil, Gold and other commodities at multi-year highs.
      14) Equity PEs based on peak earnings expectations.
      15) New Job creation went negative last month.
      16) Durable goods sales are down, except for autos last month (which got HUGE incentives).
      17) US Consumption very low in the Q2 GDP number.

      Is that enough? I'm sure I could dig up more...

      Do you think Ben dropped the rate 50bp because he just LIKES you guys? Something wicked this way comes my friend. The Fed sees it coming or they would not have dropped so far and sacrificed the dollar.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 20th 17:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Happened the Last Time the Fed Cut 0.5%?
      Thomas - I don't disagree with your comments, but I think the housing bubble is alot larger than the stock bubble. Plus I think Pets.com is the equivalent of ARM-Reset and subprime loans today. Both ridiculously stupid in hindsight.

      Housing will take longer to unwind too though. In the tech bubble, VC dried up immediately, geeks were immediately laid-off and stocks dropped quickly. In housing we get the slow burn of housing defaults eating away at US consumption a bit at a time and chipping away at valuations.

      But hey, if the dollar drops enough maybe our property will get so cheap foreigners will rush to buy it! We can all send our rent checks to China and Japan to help cover their loss in the value of their $2 trillion in US Treasuries!
      View article »
    • Mon Sep 17th 13:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are More Signs of a Slowdown on the Way?
      The longer I own stocks the more I realize it is mostly psychology and very little logic. The world as we knew it ended in July, yet the S&P is only down 4%. It's like chopping the head off a snake ...the body keeps moving not knowing it's already dead.

      It goes deeper than that though. I'm no genious, but I figured out over a year ago that housing had peaked and this was going to end very badly based on the Case-Shiller Index. All the extra home equity money drying up, plus a huge oversupply of homes was going to create one hell of a nasty hang over. I didn't even know about CDOs or NINJA loans back then!
      View article »
    • Sun Sep 16th 15:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Consumer Confidence Number Comes Through
      In fact, what would be really interesting to me is WHY they are so different. Is it a difference in timing, methodologies or something else?

      I honestly don't know, but if I had one thermometer telling me the temperature increased 0.4 degrees outside and another telling me it dropped 18.2 degrees, I would be very suspicious!

      Anybody out there know what's up?
      View article »
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