NoFate

How to Trade This 'Bear' Market - Barron's

$2 a share ...we finally got MARK TO MARKET!!!

Now the rest of the investment banks have to drop to $2 and we might be at a bottom.

Disagree? Great ...SOLD TO YOU!

A Sensible and Refreshing Move from the Fed

Here is an analogy ...your teenager has maxed out their credit cards and is to a point they can no longer make payments. You step in as a co-signer and get the limits on the cards doubled.

Is this the right decision? This is what the Fed did for the banks yesterday.

What they should have done is "tough love." Step on their damn necks and tell them to take their proper write-downs (that are hidden on their SIVs or are still inflated due to "mark to myth").

Until there is trust and responsibility, more liquidity will not solve the problem.

Buying the Oversold Financial Sector

Why people rush back in to bottom fish when every technical indicator screams BEAR is beyond me. Why not wait for a higher low? If it is REALLY near a low then it will rattle around down here for the next year as the other sectors come crashing down around it.

I really doubt it is a low though. As others have pointed out, there is still serious unwinding ahead with housing foreclosures, other forms of credit defaulting and additional mortgage backed debt imploding (because of the first two and the ratings games).

No sir, I think we are just about getting started here. Them financial folks dug themselves a nice big hole.

Selling Over? I'm Just Not Buying It.

Bush is going to sign into law a economic stimulus package that helps POOR PEOPLE! Admit it ...we got serious problems people!

Analysts See Dow Rising Sharply in 2008

"We have often pointed out that analyst price targets should be taken with a grain of salt."

Ummm ...should be taken with a salt mine in this case.

Interesting article, but it seems the main conclusion is how laughable analyst's price targets really are.

2008 Bespoke Market Poll: Chance of Recession 50/50

Thoreau: "A man more right than his neighbors, constitutes a majority of one."

My majority includes Hussman, Shiller, Roubini and as of last night John Mauldin.

If someone is to perform open heart surgery on you do you want a caucus of average citizens or the expert?

Someone was performing open heart surgery on you portfolio these last 3 days ...I hope you picked the expert.

No End in Sight to Banking Crisis

Bottom line ...US houses inflated in value about $6 trillion in the past 6 years (nearly double):
- Much of this money was withdrawn and spent.
- Many houses will end up underwater (debt > house value).
- Much of this debt was handed out to people who can't pay ...so the banks and investors will eat it.
- All historical fundamental comparisons such as rent, median income, building cost indicate it is too high.
- The Case-Shiller CME futures market currently indicates a bottom in 2010 or 2011.
- The ARM resets for the next 6 months are far greater than the last 6 months.

Further, Commercial Real Estate usually follows Residential by 12-18 months ...and sure enough that shoe is starting to drop.

This is far far from over people. We might be in the 2nd inning.

Pick Up Undervalued Financials - Barron's Interview

There has not been a recent deal that didn't dilute stock price. Either there were additional incentives or the stock was just sold below market price. When big players start picking financials at market price with no side deals I might believe its a bottom. They are just trying to stay solvent at the moment.

The other thing to watch is the ARM resets. The worst 6 months just started ...after more foreclosures we will see how bad their mark to model calculations really are. Until then you are bottom fishing in the dark (...don't grab a shark!).

Three words if you believe this article ..."Sold to YOU!"