NoFate

5 Tactics for 2008

I think this is a good article, but am confused why you would hold IYR and SRS, since the latter is simply a double short. Why not just hold less IYR (if you were bullish) or less SRS (if you were bearish)?

Why I'm Not 100% Convinced That We've Entered A Bear Market

1) A 17 or 18 PE is historically high for the US. Instead of 10 year, which averages in your 45 PE in the tech bubble, why don't you go back 50 years?

2) PEs are still estimated using forward view ...both Q3 and Q4 earnings growth were cut substantially ...as I am sure 2008 will be as well.

3) Emerging markets have higher earnings growth expectations because their GDP growth is MUCH higher than developed countries. BRIC probably averages 8-10% GDP growth versus the US growth of 1-2% on average. I think EM are also over valued, but not at much as the S&P.

If you are still a bull it is because you choose to be. As they say, "Sold to YOU!"