NoFate

Here's Hoping Tuesday's Fed Move Spurs a Recovery in Credit Markets

I took the opportunity to buy more shorts today! Thanks Ben!

Recession Could Be Boon for Stocks - WSJ

Yes, the market usually rebounds prior to recession end (though it did not last time!) ...however average peak to trough is around 20% in the S&P. This is hardly good news...

Friday's Outlook: Stick a Fork in Mr. Market

There is going to be $2-3 trillion in housing value that will go *poof!* in the next few years. Peoples LTV will be underwater and many will walk away? Do you have a clue what this will do to mortgage backed securities and bank margins?

Do you realize that an increase of >0.5% unemployment from the low has signaled a recession with 100% accuracy since WWII? The last report came in at 0.6%.

These are 2 of many indications that things are going to get rough. The signals are all around you, but you have to be willing to look and listen.

What will you do when you realize the analysts telling you recession is on the way are actually the smart guys in the room? How do you plan to get your principle back?

Consensus Economist Estimates Don't Suggest a Recession

This is known to be one of the worst recession indicators. About a month AFTER the NASDAQ crash something like 33% of Economists predicted a recession. "It's just Wall St. ...it won't affect Main St. ...blah, blah, blah." Anyway, there is ZERO correlation...

What does have a correlation is when UE increases >0.5% from it's trough it has correctly predicted every recession 100% of the time since WWII. We are currently up 0.6%.

Guess what? Expect a recession.