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Raj2020

Raj2020
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  • Marc Cohn's GMR (TAA) Strategy Updates And Analyses [View instapost]
    Thanks TMD! With the number of blog posts for Cliff and Varan, I thought I may have missed their updates. I was not aware of Quanthead's blog. I'll check it out.
    Mar 1, 2015. 11:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Cohn's GMR (TAA) Strategy Updates And Analyses [View instapost]
    tm - I know this instablog is meant to track Marc cohn's strategy. I also know that you are very active on SA. Do you know if Cliff Smith and Varan posted updates to any of their strategies end of Feb? I couldn't find any on their instablogs.

    If you could include updates (or links to updates) for TA strategies as you update Marc's I'd really appreciate it.

    Regards..
    Mar 1, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Strategies To Capitalize On The Impending Rally In Crude Oil While Avoiding Contango [View article]
    Thank you! I'll check out your links..
    Feb 27, 2015. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Strategies To Capitalize On The Impending Rally In Crude Oil While Avoiding Contango [View article]
    itscalled,

    Thanks for your comments on Oil futures. I'm interested in this as opposed to options (which I trade a lot of but not in oil). Help me understand this a bit better.. I looked at Crude Oil Futures on Yahoo finance and came across the CL chain. (e.g. CLH15.NYM as the ticker symbol for (i'm guessing Crude Oil, March 2015 on Nymex) for a price of 48.87).

    - If I buy this, what does this buy me? A certain amount of crude oil or the option to buy a certain amount of crude oil?
    - If this is an option (or a futures contract), when does it expire? What happens at expiry? With options, I get assigned the stock. With S&P futures, it gets cash settled.
    - How do i do spreads on this? Can I buy/sell spreads at different price points for same month? For instance, Buy Oil at 48 in March and sell Oil at 50 in March (like I would with regular options or S&P futures contracts).
    - If all I can do are calendar spreads - Long a future month and short near months, when the near month expiration date comes around, how do things get settled? (wouldn't want to take physical delivery of crude oil :-))

    Appreciate your responses. If there are any blogs that discuss this in detail please point me in that direction as well.

    Regards - Raj
    Feb 27, 2015. 09:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Marc Cohn's GMR (TAA) Strategy Updates And Analyses [View instapost]
    I've learned a lot from your thoughtful comments. Thanks for doing this!
    Feb 6, 2015. 07:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fire Your Investment Manager: A Refined All-Long Strategy IV [View article]
    Thanks for the link Cliff! According to the article, a leverage of 2 seems to be the sweet spot for long-term holding/returns.
    Jan 27, 2015. 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fire Your Investment Manager: A Refined All-Long Strategy IV [View article]
    Ilya - Thanks for your continued analysis of various strategies and your extensive blog.

    It appears that you find most strategies you review wanting in one way or another. Have you come across or do you have any simple strategy that passes muster? I'm looking for a 15%+ CAGR and < 10% max drawdown for my retirement accounts..

    Appreciate your thoughts..
    Jan 25, 2015. 07:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adaptive Asset Allocation: Which Day Of The Month Is Best To Trade? [View article]
    drftr - Your refined version - 3 month look back but invest 3 weeks later - do you revalidate the trend using a 3 month look back again before you invest? You are already close to the next look back period and any change in trend will show up in another week. How does that affect your decision?

    for example - On March 31 - the 3 month look back says invest in SPY. On April 23rd (your investment date), you invest in SPY in your current plan.

    What if you do a validation lookback on Apr 23 (for the 3 month period Jan 22-Apr 22) and the model says invest in TLT. What do you do? I understand your current plans are to invest in SPY. What if you had invested in TLT instead? Are your metrics any different?
    Jan 23, 2015. 01:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Adaptive Asset Allocation: Which Is Better - Quarterly, Monthly, Or Weekly Trading? [View article]
    Berry - Would you care to share the details of your strategy? I'm sure everyone would appreciate it..
    Jan 23, 2015. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dish asks cord-cutters how does $20 per month sound? [View news story]
    Broadcast TV is not included. Unless you are a sports fan, this is worth $7-$10. No more.
    Jan 5, 2015. 01:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could Corn Go To Zero: Grains And The Myth Of The Potato Market [View article]
    And a few years ago they were lamenting about the "diversion" of corn to produce fuel while everyone was starving..

    How can we play this trend using stocks? Any particular stocks/etfs that are focused on the grain market?
    Sep 25, 2014. 04:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirees, The S&P 500 And Cash Are All You Need [View article]
    "* What simple portfolio survived 40 years that included stagflation, the tech meltdown and the Great Recession? The S&P 500 covered by cash.
    * This $1 million portfolio delivered nearly $5 million in income from 1972 to 2012. "

    Good article! Would have been nice if you had included a table (just like the one showing the retiree going bust) that showed the above strategy at work with a starting balance of $ 1M and ending balance of $5 M.
    Sep 24, 2014. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Will Start Social Security At Age 62 [View article]
    On the housing, most people are leveraged (10-20% down for example) but the 3% increase is on the entire value of the house. Not sure about your tax situation but you may have been better off refinancing and investing that amount as opposed to selling. In most metros, rents have been increasing at a pretty high rate while cost of money (refi, purchase) has been going down or has remained steady..

    Plus, you lose diversification. If the market tanks you lose it all...
    Aug 26, 2014. 05:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Will Start Social Security At Age 62 [View article]
    TAS - Can you explain your comment about "I do not qualify for ss benefits due to my defined benefit as per the 1986 tax law revision package, and have lost more than $150,000 in extorted contributions, not counting my wife's contributions which are also lost". Did you lose all you prior SS contribution when you joined Federal employment?

    I was not aware of this and wanted to fill a knowledge gap..

    Thanks!
    Aug 26, 2014. 05:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Modified GMR Signal: ILF [View instapost]
    Marc - Aren't the performance numbers listed raw numbers (meaning not adjusted for volatility as your model dictates)? Unless I missed an update about not using volatility any more.. Going forward, are you just comparing raw 3-month performance numbers to determine which instrument to invest in? - Thanks!
    May 1, 2014. 02:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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