yet another steve

17 Comments

    • The Consumer Spending Slowdown Catches Apple [view article]
      Visibility problem? Absolutely. But it's already in the stock.

      Technically, the stock has not found a bottom.

      But it certainly seems like there is more upside risk than downside risk at an enterprise value of just $72/share.

      And Apple buyers tend to simply delay purchases, not switch brands. Sooo.... the franchise is just as strong whenever consumer spending recovers.

      A big slowdown in consumer electronic spending could also give Apple some help with margins. Which equals some serious operating flexibility. And while we're all just guessing what their numbers are, they certainly know.

      If the world doesn't end, Apple is well positioned to emerge even stronger. But there's no limit to how much a stock can overshoot--upside or downside.

      If the world does end, none of this will matter...       Oct 06 04:10 AM
    • Steve Jobs' Fake Heart Attack, Courtesy of CNN [view article]
      btw, for those of you who hate shorts: They all have to cover some day. The farther down they drive it the more violent the recovery. If you have capital suitable for the market (that is not short term), get longer as it comes down.

      You will have your revenge.

      No shorting == no violent short covering rallies.

      Unlike the financials that were really hit, Apple doesn't need a cent of capital or cash (and won't ever.) The only effect a lower stock price has is that it improves recruiting by adding more upside to option grants.       Oct 03 06:48 PM
    • Steve Jobs' Fake Heart Attack, Courtesy of CNN [view article]
      Every Apple watcher KNOWS who takes over in an emergency. Apple has a COO who runs the day to day. This hits the stock because sellers fear other sellers and want to be the first one out.

      If something really does happen to SJ, I will cherish the bottom as a buying opportunity. Especially from these levels. All the bright talented people in its many businesses won't quit coming to work just because Steve isn't there. iPhones won't suddenly stop working. Macs won't suddenly get viruses. It's a company with amazing growth for its size, rabid fans for its products, ridiculous cash flow and nearly $25/share in the bank.

      It's a volatile stock and when it runs out of sellers, the snap back will be just as violent.

      Apple has a ridiculous amount of cash, the only possible long term use of which is to return it to shareholders. It has no forseeable reason to need the capital markets, ever.

      It's ALREADY trading at levels far lower than the loss of Jobs would justify.

      So, everyone, keep spreading the rumors and shorting the stock. Just do look at me when you need to cover.       Oct 03 06:44 PM
    • Steve Jobs' Fake Heart Attack, Courtesy of CNN [view article]
      Every Apple watcher KNOWS who takes over in an emergency. Apple has a COO who runs the day to day. This hits the stock because sellers fear other sellers and want to be the first one out.

      If something really does happen to SJ, I will cherish the bottom as a buying opportunity. Especially from these levels. All the bright talented people in its many businesses won't quit coming to work just because Steve isn't there. iPhones won't suddenly stop working. Macs won't suddenly get viruses. It's a company with amazing growth for its size, rabid fans for its products, ridiculous cash flow and nearly $25/share in the bank.

      It's a volatile stock and when it runs out of sellers, the snap back will be just as violent.

      Apple has a ridiculous amount of cash, the only possible long term use of which is to return it to shareholders. It has no forseeable reason to need the capital markets, ever.

      It's ALREADY trading at levels far lower than the loss of Jobs would justify.

      So, everyone, keep spreading the rumors and shorting the stock. Just do look at me when you need to cover.       Oct 03 06:44 PM
    • Apple's Bountiful Revenues Are Bigger Than Ever [view article]
      Just to reiterate "non-current"... is accountingspeak for "more than one year out". (The 816 + 624 calculation makes no sense v. non-current in the next quarter.) Means that in any part of financial statements: assets, liabilities, etc. When you defer revenues and expenses over 24 months, obviously you'll end up with both a current and non-current balance.

      As for confusion--who can blame Apple for being conservative in its accounting in today's Sarbox environment (and does any company get sued more these days?) They made a customer decision first (upgrades will be free), and we'll just have to live with the math.       Apr 28 03:33 AM
    • A Trip to 'Fantasyland' - Should Google Buy Apple? [view article]
      You're right about one thing... the slide show format sure is annoying. And another: total fantasyland. But it could have been fun if they'd written it... you know.. in word on a page. Like you did.

      And the reason it could have been a fun idea is because it is so blaringly stupid: How to destroy two very successful companies in one deal!       Mar 19 06:36 PM
    • Apple's Deferred Revenues Revisited: This Was a Blow-Out Quarter [view article]
      This is a little optimistic. Presumably deferring revenues also means deferring the cost of goods associated with those revenues. So it doesn't all fall to the bottom line.

      What does make sense, however, is to add iPhone revenues and units to the iPod numbers since it is really an extension of the same business.

      Also missed, however, is that each of these phones that isn't unlocked generates cost-free revenue to Apple every month in revenue sharing.

      Frankly Apple is at a major transition point as its ipod business goes from toy to serious platform. The street is clueless.. so clueless that we should just let 'em sell and get short. It's just like 2 years ago. Except 2 years ago, you had to have faith to see the continued growth. Now, to those of us who have noticed that iPhone/iPod touch are both iPods and OSX platforms, the source of that growth is obvious.

      The Street is clueless, and given Apple's seasonality it may take until September until Apple generates such revenues, earnings, and cash flow that they'll have to come out of denial.

      So, what the hell, let 'em drive the stock down to $90. Selling at $250 is a lot more profitable if you bought at $90 vs. $190.

      Let every clueless doubter have his day.

      Pay no attention to that $21/share in CASH... go short old men!       Jan 28 04:16 AM
    • 4 Million iPhones Sold? Really Steve? [view article]
      What the hell, bring on the bears. If the stock hits $90 on the way to $250, all the better.

      I for one will ABSOLUTELY buy an iphone. When the price is $399, not $399 + early termination fee on my current contract.

      The obvious answer is that a lot more phones have been bought for unlocking than estimated. The best evidence is Apple, restricting sales. That's what you do when you want your inventory to go to the most profitable customers (subscribers), not when you're stuffed with inventory. (And... duh... Apple is a major retailer of the iphone and its inventory counts as inventory NOT sales. Basic GAAP.)

      And it is doubtful that Steve Jobs would have used the number if it wasn't true... basically committing securities fraud when he need not have said anything.

      But enough of that... there's a bear raid on a company posting breathtaking results and growth. Let's the sellers reign. I'm not on margin and I ain't selling. Volatility is how 20% gains can become 100% gains.

      Get short now!!!       Jan 28 04:01 AM
    • Apple at $135: Low Hanging Fruit [view article]
      What all you "seasoned" investors fail to mention is the possibility of a buyback. The company has $21/share in cash. Yes it has been crushed as a momentum stock... but at some level Apple will step in and put a floor under it. At these levels and with the cash they are generating they can easily do so.

      Yes in the conference call they did not show any interest in a stock buyback. But that was at $155. I wouldn't be surprised if they wait for a nice oversold day and cut the press release authorizing the buyback. And they have the cash to really buy the shares and make it stick.

      And when everyone expects it to still go lower in the short term... that's generally the bottom.       Jan 26 09:05 AM
    • Apple Sitting on Excess Inventory? [view article]
      Count me in on the "why are we focusing on $100 ipods instead of $2000 computers?" And then add: "Why are we focusing on $79 ipods instead of $300 ipods".

      Selling everyone on the planet a $29 throwaway device ins't nearly as lucrative as selling a whole lot of people a $300+ handheld wireless platform. Apple is turning the ipod into a computer. The important announcement isn't a new product... it's the SDK next month.

      Meanwhile the company, largely through its mac business, is practically printing money.

      This is a company whose earnings are growing north of 30%, who will make about $5.50 THIS year, who is building a subscription profit stream through the iphone business and who has $22/share in CASH. AAPL is NOT priced for perfection... it's cheap.

      And a real inventory issue would show up on the balance sheet. Instead the balance sheet shows.... CASH.       Jan 25 05:48 PM
    • Apple Needs to Execute, No Longer Innovate [view article]
      John Gruber (daringfireballnet) pointed out something we've all missed. The iPod grew this holiday season at the same rate as last year... in REVENUES. Last year the shiny new ipod was the low-end shuffle so units spiked. This year the shiny new ipod was the high end touch. Low end music players are destined to be given away like calculators. The iPhone and iPod touch show Apple, successfully, continuing to grow this franchise... profitably.

      And the consistent revenue growth thesis does NOT include the iPhone. Which is more than an ipod but certainly IS an ipod and is certainly part of the same franchise.       Jan 24 05:16 PM
    • Cisco Sell-off Puts Apple at a Discount [view article]
      If I was less honest I'd be a troll and add to all the skepticism here. Please please please. Sell your AAPL. And then sell some short. Put your money where your skepticism is!

      Look at the insane trailing PE and go short. Pay no attention to the PEG. Remember that the future is UNIX and ignore which PC OS is built on top of it. And smartphone.

      It's the short of a lifetime. Beleagured AAPL!

      Because it wasn't in the 150s long enough for me to actually buy any.       Nov 17 05:11 AM
    • University Students Responsible For Booming Mac Sales [view article]
      Amongst other things, this makes Zune's continued lack of Mac support begin to look like an increasingly serious (Zune) liability. Oct 03 10:09 AM
    • Apple Investors Overlooking Mac's Windows Capability [view article]
      Absolutely. The switch to Intel (and Boot Camp and other ways to run Windows--natively) is probably the biggest driver of earnings growth right now, and it gets very little attention. And it's very synnergistic with the halo effect and the retail stores. Remove the #1 impediment and let the retail and ipod experiences run full throttle. Plus there's a lot more profit in a mac than an ipod and plenty of room to grow when your share is in single digits. Sep 21 06:49 AM
    • Apple’s $100 Million Apology A Win-Win [view article]
      $100M is ridiculous.
      800 K phones sold; Apple has circa 30% margins (it's store credit remember), plenty won't get around to claiming credit or actually using it. It's at best half that amount, and that is assuming none of it is charged against the subscription accounting revenue (I'm sure AAPL would rather take a one time charge and keep the future earnings since stoks price based on the future.)       Sep 09 06:54 AM
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