yet another steve

4 Million iPhones Sold? Really Steve?

What the hell, bring on the bears. If the stock hits $90 on the way to $250, all the better.

I for one will ABSOLUTELY buy an iphone. When the price is $399, not $399 + early termination fee on my current contract.

The obvious answer is that a lot more phones have been bought for unlocking than estimated. The best evidence is Apple, restricting sales. That's what you do when you want your inventory to go to the most profitable customers (subscribers), not when you're stuffed with inventory. (And... duh... Apple is a major retailer of the iphone and its inventory counts as inventory NOT sales. Basic GAAP.)

And it is doubtful that Steve Jobs would have used the number if it wasn't true... basically committing securities fraud when he need not have said anything.

But enough of that... there's a bear raid on a company posting breathtaking results and growth. Let's the sellers reign. I'm not on margin and I ain't selling. Volatility is how 20% gains can become 100% gains.

Get short now!!!

Apple at $135: Low Hanging Fruit

What all you "seasoned" investors fail to mention is the possibility of a buyback. The company has $21/share in cash. Yes it has been crushed as a momentum stock... but at some level Apple will step in and put a floor under it. At these levels and with the cash they are generating they can easily do so.

Yes in the conference call they did not show any interest in a stock buyback. But that was at $155. I wouldn't be surprised if they wait for a nice oversold day and cut the press release authorizing the buyback. And they have the cash to really buy the shares and make it stick.

And when everyone expects it to still go lower in the short term... that's generally the bottom.

Apple Sitting on Excess Inventory?

Count me in on the "why are we focusing on $100 ipods instead of $2000 computers?" And then add: "Why are we focusing on $79 ipods instead of $300 ipods".

Selling everyone on the planet a $29 throwaway device ins't nearly as lucrative as selling a whole lot of people a $300+ handheld wireless platform. Apple is turning the ipod into a computer. The important announcement isn't a new product... it's the SDK next month.

Meanwhile the company, largely through its mac business, is practically printing money.

This is a company whose earnings are growing north of 30%, who will make about $5.50 THIS year, who is building a subscription profit stream through the iphone business and who has $22/share in CASH. AAPL is NOT priced for perfection... it's cheap.

And a real inventory issue would show up on the balance sheet. Instead the balance sheet shows.... CASH.

Apple Needs to Execute, No Longer Innovate

John Gruber (daringfireballnet) pointed out something we've all missed. The iPod grew this holiday season at the same rate as last year... in REVENUES. Last year the shiny new ipod was the low-end shuffle so units spiked. This year the shiny new ipod was the high end touch. Low end music players are destined to be given away like calculators. The iPhone and iPod touch show Apple, successfully, continuing to grow this franchise... profitably.

And the consistent revenue growth thesis does NOT include the iPhone. Which is more than an ipod but certainly IS an ipod and is certainly part of the same franchise.

Cisco Sell-off Puts Apple at a Discount

If I was less honest I'd be a troll and add to all the skepticism here. Please please please. Sell your AAPL. And then sell some short. Put your money where your skepticism is!

Look at the insane trailing PE and go short. Pay no attention to the PEG. Remember that the future is UNIX and ignore which PC OS is built on top of it. And smartphone.

It's the short of a lifetime. Beleagured AAPL!

Because it wasn't in the 150s long enough for me to actually buy any.

University Students Responsible For Booming Mac Sales

Amongst other things, this makes Zune's continued lack of Mac support begin to look like an increasingly serious (Zune) liability.

Apple Investors Overlooking Mac's Windows Capability

Absolutely. The switch to Intel (and Boot Camp and other ways to run Windows--natively) is probably the biggest driver of earnings growth right now, and it gets very little attention. And it's very synnergistic with the halo effect and the retail stores. Remove the #1 impediment and let the retail and ipod experiences run full throttle. Plus there's a lot more profit in a mac than an ipod and plenty of room to grow when your share is in single digits.

Apple’s $100 Million Apology A Win-Win

$100M is ridiculous.
800 K phones sold; Apple has circa 30% margins (it's store credit remember), plenty won't get around to claiming credit or actually using it. It's at best half that amount, and that is assuming none of it is charged against the subscription accounting revenue (I'm sure AAPL would rather take a one time charge and keep the future earnings since stoks price based on the future.)

Mixed Emotions on Apple's Announcements

The iphone is a new product in a new category. Apple should be aggressive here. Especially since they seem to have nailed the product. As Jobs says, they can't move Christmas. I can't see how this affects earnings estimates--the iPhone is a long-term story and who thought prices would not come down. Margins will be fine long term as well--we know what direction component prices will head.

I also take it as a good sign that they're confident in manufacturing capabilities.

Bad news for Zune and NBC though. For the latter, consider this: before yesterday only the top of the line iPod played videos. Now every iPod with a screen does. Video on the nano is a huge story since that's where the volume is.

This is a product with great products and momentum doing what a company should do--taking no prisoners.

Apple Calls NBC's Digital Download Bluff

But NBC has an answer for this. They've asked the FCC to mandate that all broadband providers filter the internet to stop copyright infringement. Now before we get all distracted by the technical lunacy of this... think big picture. They're willing to have a China-style "filtered" internet... all to protect the sitcom.

It's the most shocking proposal I've heard in a long time. Imagine the uproad if we proposed their news programs have a monitor who would block any content thought to say libel someone. It's just unbelievably shocking.