gacetillero

Is EPA Ethanol Mandate a Joke?

Pay closer attention. The new mandate is exactly what was prescribed under the Renewable Fuels Standard in the Energy Policy Act 2005. The EPA has *no* discretion in setting the mandate. Granted, it's unfortunate that their press releases are written to make it sound like they do.

$100 Oil By Monday (Read: The Lebanon Crisis)

Given that OECD countries are amply supplied with crude, how is geopolitical uncertainty *not* priced into the market at the moment? It's about the only justification there is for prices to be at their current levels.

I also think you're overstating the importance of Lebanese domestic politics to the oil markets. Hariri's assassination didn't have much of an impact on the oil price; nor did the Nahr al-Bared battle. Israel doesn't have much appetite for another confrontation with Hizbollah, and it's far from clear that the US would gain anything at all from a military intervention in Lebanese politics - State is well aware that meddling more would just make them look like craven imperialists out to get the Muslims, and whatever you may think of the Americans, they aren't *that* stupid.

I think you're just kicking up dust 'cos you're long the market.

$100 Oil By Monday (Read: The Lebanon Crisis)

Trying to clear the $100 barrier before the Jan contract expires Dec 13th, are we?

Brazil, Hold Your Horses on Ethanol Tarriffs

Given the huge amount of fertilizer used in US corn production and the vast dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico, this whole 'glocalism' schtick is just putting lipstick on a pig. Corn ethanol's EROEI is god-awful because of the way that corn is farmed and the way that ethanol is made.

Moreover, given that the US fuel ethanol industry was pretty much invented by ADM - which happens still to be the biggest single producer - the idea that this is realistically going to prevent the market being dominated by large producers is utterly laughable.

Pareto distributions - you familiar with them? They occur in nature for a reason.