gacetillero

$100 Oil By Monday (Read: The Lebanon Crisis)

Given that OECD countries are amply supplied with crude, how is geopolitical uncertainty *not* priced into the market at the moment? It's about the only justification there is for prices to be at their current levels.

I also think you're overstating the importance of Lebanese domestic politics to the oil markets. Hariri's assassination didn't have much of an impact on the oil price; nor did the Nahr al-Bared battle. Israel doesn't have much appetite for another confrontation with Hizbollah, and it's far from clear that the US would gain anything at all from a military intervention in Lebanese politics - State is well aware that meddling more would just make them look like craven imperialists out to get the Muslims, and whatever you may think of the Americans, they aren't *that* stupid.

I think you're just kicking up dust 'cos you're long the market.

$100 Oil By Monday (Read: The Lebanon Crisis)

Trying to clear the $100 barrier before the Jan contract expires Dec 13th, are we?