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IncomeYield

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  • Why This Long-Time Bull Is Moving To The Sidelines [View article]
    2500???

    Either all of the big caps will have to re-finance AGAIN and this time for 30-years at or near 1 to 2%, and not 3 to 4% like last time,

    AND they will have to lay-off almost everyone,

    AND the US and EURO consumer will have to inherit a ton of money and spend it

    OR, traders will rationalize an S&P P/E of around 20 to 25 which could very well happen
    May 26, 2013. 07:41 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 7 Reasons Why People Hate QE [View article]
    The market has been fueled by the "teaser rate". The QUESTION is, when and if the teaser rate expires. In theory, it appears, it doesn't necessarily ever have to end.

    The unintended consequences are many including seniors going back to work just to compete with their own kids and grand kids that already suffer high unemployment.

    I said the Apple bond sale marked the top for corp bonds. Let's see if a 4%, 30 year mortgage slams the breaks on residential real estate.
    May 25, 2013. 06:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 7 Reasons Why People Hate QE [View article]
    Yes, the potential long term risks seem much bigger than the overall short term rewards so far.
    May 25, 2013. 06:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Sustain The Rally, The Fed Should Start Tapering Now [View article]
    So long as you have guys like Bogle telling people ...
    - expect 7% per year total return from equities,
    - 08/09 wont happen again
    - don't panic when hit with temporary 30% declines

    and the ten-year is below 4%, this market ain't going down
    May 20, 2013. 11:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • To Sustain The Rally, The Fed Should Start Tapering Now [View article]
    Interest rates (what banks pay to borrow) is key.
    May 20, 2013. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    Not sure I would bet the store on "rounded corners". A bigger/deeper moat would be better.
    May 20, 2013. 12:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    Like Tesla, Apple will need to decide if they want a niche with high margins or try to take it all, sacrifice margins, and make it up in volume. Or a combination of both.

    What customers and shareholders do as a result is hard to gauge. In part, that's why I say the stock is not investable. Way too many moving parts. At least you have a 50/50 chance though. :)
    May 20, 2013. 12:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    I wouldn't call small form factor computers, some with cell phone capability, revolutionary. The fact that they caught on was obviously a very good call by Steve Jobs.
    May 20, 2013. 12:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    Apple will be a victim of its own success similar to Microsoft.
    With tens of millions of devices in use, backward compatibility becomes an issue and a big hassle. Cut the cord on the existing base to move forward "forcing" an upgrade and they scream foul.

    Maintain backward compatibility and the new models look just so-so.
    May 20, 2013. 12:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    Yeah, Ben must be overjoyed that Apple used his "stimulus" to buy back shares instead of hiring people. :)

    How are those Apple 30-year bonds working out so far ???
    May 20, 2013. 12:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    I first went Apple, and all Apple with the iPhone5,and iPad3. So far, zero problems and greater productivity than I thought. No more email or vmail. Text messages mainly using Siri. I try to continually eliminate vendors and applications - simplify. Waiting for iPayments to get rid of credit cards.

    That said, the UI/UX is at best OK, and one could argue fair to poor.

    Keep your eye on Chrome devices. Could be a game changer. I plan to try them.
    May 19, 2013. 11:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Magic Is Broken [View article]
    Screen size is one factor, the other major issue I find in my focus group is the ease of getting files on and off a device. The iPhone and iPad are more "closed". The iPhone is more of a smartphone and less of a phablet. The tweener group wants one device that is more like a small computer with cell phone capability vs. a phone with rudimentary computing capability.
    Apple should "open" it up at the risk of added complexity, support problems and cannibalization of other devices.

    Another issue is the BYOD movement. I guessed that corps would not allow and/or support a bunch of devices and OSs and that Apple would benefit as a result since they would be the obvious standard.
    May 19, 2013. 11:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    That's part of the bubble, P/Es. The fed cuts rates to fix structural un-employment (which won't work almost by definition), so credit worthy companies instead of hiring, sell bonds and buy back stock.

    The more antacid you take, the more (not less) acid the stomach sends out in response to the artificial stimulus. Negative feedback loop until the patient finally drops or gets real treatment for the ulcer.
    May 17, 2013. 09:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    Yup, if I finally went long Apple, it would go to $80. If I went short, it would go to $800.
    May 17, 2013. 09:04 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Long-Term Damage From Stock Market Bubble Forming Now [View article]
    It's not what the Fed is doing to condition investors, it's the interest rate environment borrowers are and will demand going forward.

    Stress test it. Open the market Monday morning with a 5% 30-year mortgage just as a test. Would every home sale now in escrow fall out?

    Set auto loans at 7 to 8% and see what car sales do that week.

    Interest rates are artificial, P/E's are artificial. I do agree that non-discretionary will hold up against almost any headwind. People will pay their telecom bill, insurance, health care, etc.

    Remember in spite of almost zero rates across the board, the US economy is still at or near stall speed.
    May 17, 2013. 08:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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