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  • "It's almost biblical," says Apollo Global (APO) CEO Leon Black. "There is a time to reap and there's a time to sow ... We are harvesting." The P-E kingpin says Apollo has unloaded about $13B in assets over the past 15 months. "The financing market is as good as we have ever seen it. It's back to 2007 levels. There is no institutional memory ... We're selling everything that's not nailed down." [View news story]
    It will stop when everyone as bought a house at <4% and everyone has a home equity loan at at <3%, and everyone has bought a car at 2% and everyone has bought appliances and an iPad at zero%, and everyone with stocks is deep on margin.

    Or, if interest rates were to normalize. What will housing look like at 5 to 8%, and autos at 8 to 10% and credit cards back at 20 to 22%?

    This is "payment nation and bubble nation".

    Ben should test it. Give savers a 5% CD to throw them a lifeline and see what happens for a year.
    May 5, 2013. 03:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now [View article]
    The stock market is also supply and demand.

    Artificially low interest rates = insane big cap bond sales = crazy buy backs = record insider selling.

    The usual wealth transfer from shareholders to insiders, and taxpayers to insider/politicos.

    Great work if you can get it.
    Including the N Cal lifetime $400k per year for life pensioner.

    James -- you have been calling for an S&P blow-up now for 3 or 4 years. :)
    May 3, 2013. 03:38 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now [View article]
    The housing bubble and dot-bomb bubble flashed warnings years before they popped. The shorts were right eventually as usual, but could they stand the pain while the bubble was expanding.

    Apple was a good example. So called "smart money" started screaming about Apple last time it was in the mid 300's. Did they cover between 400 and 700?

    I don't see a top until the S&P 500 div yield and ten-year cross, and/or the P/E expands to around 20+.
    May 3, 2013. 03:32 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Is Becoming Irrelevant [View article]
    I have posted about "convergence". The trend would not be good for Apple since one device (from apple or a competitor) could replace 3 or 4 devices from Apple.

    phablet = smartphone+tablet+note... ....

    The iPhone alone has converged a bunch of devices already for many users.
    May 1, 2013. 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stock Markets And Those Pesky Fundamentals [View article]
    The Apple bond deal could paradoxically mark the overall bond top.
    The irony of it all. :)

    Someone give me a few billion for 30-years at 3 or 4%.
    May 1, 2013. 12:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "Enough already!" There's a lot more to this bull market than the Fed's liquidity hose, says Citi's Tobias Levkovich, reminding earnings have risen right alongside stock prices, but what hasn't gone up are valuations. Capital spending, housing, consumer spending, and employment may not all be where we'd like them to be, but all have improved materially. "Ignoring economic facts to make a liquidity point just does not seem to make a whole lot of sense," he writes, advising to buy any equity wobbles should the Fed signal an easing back on the accelerator. [View news story]
    If Apple and MickieD couldn't sell 30 year paper for 3%.
    If the Fed couldn't sell the 10-year (to itself) for sub 2%
    If homebuyers couldn't get a 30 year loan for sub 4%
    If consumers couldn't get a car, appliance, or iPad for near 0%

    What do you think would happen? This economy would likely grind to halt. Then what?

    20 years from now the B-schools and econ classes will be writing and talking about the Greenspan and Bernanke "experiments".

    C'mon -- give savers and retirees a 3 or 4% CD so they can quit competing with their kids and grandkids for already scarce jobs. It's embarrassing. Like 60 year old rock stars still on tour. :)
    Apr 30, 2013. 11:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • James Altucher: Why The Stock Market Is A Sucker's Game Right Now (And What Stocks I Own) [View article]

    You gotta look under the hood. Earnings reports, ok, to bad, to awful, S&P up. Big caps re-financing and borrowing at insane rates, taking shares off the market, record insider selling.

    Uncle Ben better have this right.
    Apr 30, 2013. 09:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some of Wall Streets titans of finance say they are pulling away from the stock and bond markets, warning that central bank policies around the globe had set prices soaring too high. Apollo Management's Joshua Harris is one such manager. His advice to investors: "Run—do not walk" from bonds at current prices. He doesn't limit that advice to just bonds either. Harris warns of overvaluation in virtually all traditional asset classes. Another Apollo manager, Leon Black, agrees, calling the current market climate a "fabulous environment" - as long as you're selling. [View news story]
    Remember when Greenspan said, "I didn't see it"?
    They give PhDs for this sort of stuff?
    Apr 30, 2013. 09:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL) roundup: 1) 9to5 Mac reports iOS 7's Jony Ive-designed UI has shed "all signs of gloss, shine, and skeumorphism." The WSJ reported something similar in March. 9to5 also reports iOS 7 sports new icons, toolbars, and tab bars.  2) OS X 10.9 (Cabernet) will reportedly feature an improved Finder app and possibly iOS-like multitasking and app-pausing features. 3) ISI's Brian Marshall claims he "got cold feet" when going to buy a Galaxy S4, due to 6 years of relying on Apple's "flypaper-like" ecosystem. "In the tech industry, one of the most under-valued assets ... is the stickiness of an installed base." But he still considers a bigger iPhone a must. [View news story]
    Convergence is not a plus for Apple IMO unless they get most or nearly all market share.

    A phablet could mean one device, instead of three or four, or five (iPod, iPhone, iPad in various form factors, Mac in various form factors).

    Tether a keyboard and an HDTV to a phablet with cloud storage, and one device might be all you need. That's the approach I plan to try. For now, everyone gets the iPhone/iPad combo,and they can choose a Mac or PC as needed.

    "One device would be nice" for the end-user, but maybe not so nice for the vendor.
    Apr 30, 2013. 01:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secular Bull Market Continues [View article]
    The US is "payment nation". So long as interest rates are closet to zero, consumers will consume.
    Apr 29, 2013. 09:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secular Bull Market Continues [View article]
    Spain could disappear and people will still find a way to pay their telco and insurance bill, buy Coke and cigarettes, baby diapers, and meds.
    Apr 29, 2013. 09:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Secular Bull Market Continues [View article]
    The bull can continue so long as the div yield on "too big to fail" large caps remains at or higher than the ten-year yield.

    Investors are using stocks as a bond substitute and have been trained now to believe in a recovery from most anything thrown at equities, if they can just hold on for any ten-year period, worst case appears to them break even.

    Sitting in cash at zero rates is much worse than possible paper losses and 2 to 3% divs. Doing something is better than nothing.

    We have goldilocks -- bonds up, stocks up. What happens if both reverse? Losses (on paper at least) for bonds AND stocks. I sure hope Uncle Ben double-checked those Excel formulas. Or for some, Google Docs.
    Apr 29, 2013. 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greenway Medical (GWAY -19%) falls as investors react negatively to the company's revised guidance for FY13. GWAY says it now sees a GAAP net loss of $0.11-0.13 per share on revenue of $132-134M. In February, the company said it expected to earn $0.10-0.17 per share on revenues $145-150M. For its part, the Street is expecting $0.22 per share on sales of $146.7M. [View news story]
    With or without HiTech/ARRA, a very tough space to play in.
    Apr 29, 2013. 09:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Goldman and Deutsche are "in the lead" to handle an Apple (AAPL +3.6%) debt offering, Bloomberg reports shortly after the company filed an S-3. Apple, which last week promised to return $100B to shareholders by the end of 2015, is said to have asked Goldman/Deutsche "to arrange phone interviews with fixed-income investors today in advance of a potential deal." Much like the Facebook IPO, banks are likely to offer discounted fees to win bragging rights. (institutional interest[View news story]
    That's all we need is a another 30 year corp bond at 3%. And big money long the bonds and short the stock.
    Apr 29, 2013. 09:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A very bullish presentation from Longboard Asset Management helped Tesla (TSLA +7.4%) rally today. Calling Tesla the auto industry version of Apple (others have made that analogy in some form) due to its brand, management, and disruptive impact (among other things), Longboard predicts shares will hit $100 within 18 months and $200 within 5 years. The firm expects Tesla to grab 80% of the global EV market, praises the company's engineering skill, and expects a heavy short interest (44% of the free float is shorted) to help fuel a rally. (slides) Update: SA commenters report having seen Longboard's presentation earlier. However, it was only today that it received media coverage. [View news story]
    And, they are starting to get the "cool" factor. People will pay up for that cache and Laws of Thermodynamics be damned. Guys will drive anything to get a date. :)

    I think BMW, Mercedes and Porsche get hurt before GM and FORD. Someone better make Tesla an offer they can't refuse. Would not want to be short to see a deal some AM for $100+ a share.

    I think Apple should buy them, instead of the share buy back.
    Apr 29, 2013. 09:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment