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  • Oil Markets: Sentiment And Lame Thinking Are Currently In The Driver's Seat [View article]
    The opposite could happen.

    How many people world-wide have been sitting on the proverbial sidelines at $100+ oil? Waiting to start or expand a biz. Waiting to buy a car?

    All of a sudden, poof, 40% off on the COGS!
    Possibly a big demand shock coming.
    Dec 4, 2014. 12:34 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crash Of Oil Prices Could Be The Opportunity Of The Decade, Part 2 [View article]

    Tell us "when". :)
    Nov 28, 2014. 08:18 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When To Sell [View article]
    For investors, you sell when ...

    (1) You KNOW the market is going considerably lower.
    (2) The cap gains taxes you pay are MUCH LESS than the market drop.
    (3) You are willing and able to TIME the re-entry.

    Good luck with all three!
    Oct 12, 2014. 03:07 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: It Is A Correction, Not A Crash [View article]
    A lot of these guys that are so-called fully invested have been posting that they bought "this and that", and "this and that" the last few days. Where did they get the funds? Unless more margin. :(
    Oct 10, 2014. 03:01 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Taper Is A Gift: Sell All Long-Term Bonds Now [View article]
    "Long-term implications for equity indices such as the S&P 500 and index ETFs such as (SPY) are more ambiguous."

    Finally, he has given-up on trying to predict, SPY.
    Then,I predict (no pun intended) that he will finally admit to not being able to predict interest rates, short term or long term.
    Sep 19, 2013. 12:34 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • And now to the rescue: Chesapeake Energy (CHK) says it's gotten a $3B unsecured loan from Goldman Sachs and Jefferies Group, to be repaid from those 2012 asset sales.  [View news story]
    an ambulance chaser that finally beat WarrenB to the scene of an accident
    May 12, 2012. 11:23 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Default And Devaluation: Would It Even Matter? [View article]
    One of my concerns remains similar to the US housing issue. Why does anyone care? Why has most of the developed world moved heaven 'n earth to deal with Greece?

    In the same way, I STILL ask why Ben is so worried about US residential housing values that he wreaks havoc on many other innocent bystanders and sectors.

    Do policy makers "policize" for its own sake? Like nothing better to do? Sometimes the right action might be no action.
    Feb 19, 2012. 07:58 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $60: Not A Reasonable Price For Oil [View article]
    The issue is the difference in rate of increase in supply vs. the rate of increase in demand.

    For all the reasons mentioned here, demand is weakening as a rate of increase while supply has literally ramped.
    Dec 17, 2014. 08:28 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Saudi Arabia: Do The Math [View article]
    You don't know that OPEC and Russia had not adjusted to and made all kinds of social commitments at $100 oil. To lay that sort of stuff down, is much more serious than O&G capex.

    Maybe here in the US, XLE goes down. In other parts of the world, the damage could be very significant to their populations.
    Dec 5, 2014. 02:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few Quick Observations On Crude [View article]
    Look at the recent LUKOIL conference call transcript for some insight into what is really going on. Wow!

    Here's my take after just a quick glance:

    (1) The current oil price decline has very little to do with global supply and demand. It has been manipulated with the intention of holding the price below $90 for some extended period of time (6-9 months).

    (2) Russia is a collaborator in the price fixing and not a target.
    Highly leveraged US shale frackers are clearly one target.

    (3) Some large integrateds with easy oil will actually have INCREASED free cash flow with lower oil prices.

    (4) Dividends could be considered safe at these oil price levels and even much lower.

    (5) The US is NOT liked. Not by Russia, China, or the OPEC countries.

    This a very long post which will be on the web site shortly with related excerpts from the transcript.
    Click "In the News"

    Bottom-line. These are fightin' words from Russia. Will be interesting to see if the US takes protective actions to defend against this economic attack. Maybe bailouts like the housing crisis. Buy troubled loans, etc.
    Nov 29, 2014. 11:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla's Most Recent Conference Call [View article]
    How much are new batteries? People think of of these batteries as zero cost of ownership. They have a limited useful life and potentially large recycling/disposal costs. Not to mention the environmental impact of mining the materials and producing the batteries.
    Nov 14, 2014. 09:50 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Correction Didn't Become A Crash [View article]
    That's the dilemma. Stocks say economy is ripping, bonds say it is slow to dead.
    Oct 31, 2014. 02:44 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What If The Fed Has Created A Bubble? [View article]
    That's what makes SA useful. Look at all the CD buyers that skipped right past bonds to the Div Aristocrats and MLPs and say they will never sell and will just ignore the next downdraft as if the divs and distributions are guaranteed some how some way.
    Aug 22, 2014. 08:41 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction 2014: Are You Prepared? [View article]
    The Fed is "trapped". Painted into the proverbial corner.
    Taxpayers world-wide are the back stop -- again.

    The biggest and bluest chips could see significant P/E expansion as investors are willing to pay up for companies likely to just still be in business in the next 10 to 20 years.

    The real risk is in all the long term private and public sub 3% debt.
    Jun 6, 2014. 01:50 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wind And Solar Share Fatal Flaws: Politics And Variability Of Output [View article]
    Wow, battery disposal and recycling is as bad as nuclear waste.
    Apr 4, 2013. 10:07 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment