As I'm a long-term investor, I'll highlight some stockpicks which will have a 5-7 year investment horizon. As I strongly believe a portfolio should consist of a mixture of dividend-paying stocks and growth stocks, my articles will reflect my thoughts on this mixture.
Opportunities are always changing and I prefer to move along with them. I am constantly looking to spot areas of growth and value before the market does whether this is analyzing the latest news or tearing apart a 10-K.
As much as I would like to be spot on with every idea, I cannot guarantee that all of my ideas will beat the market. As always, remember to do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Dallas currently owns and operates as CEO an Austin-based enterprise consulting firm that specializes in private company lifecycle management, up to and including taking companies public, and in helping consult publicly traded companies ranging in market cap from $100 million to $500 million. He has a specialization in deal flow management and is often the referring and closing source of Joint Ventures and broader M&A. Dallas often works directly with management teams and Boards of microcap and stressed equity companies in which he or members of his professional network are heavily invested. This includes helping with overall strategy, helping with capital structure management, helping facilitate liquidity, helping facilitate Joint Ventures and broader M&A, and helping restructure the business segments if necessary. Recently Dallas has been interviewed by The Pittsburgh Business Times, The Banker, Columbus Business First, Houston Business Journal, The Deal, Energy Intelligence, and his tweets have been used by CNBC to highlight hot button issues regarding Carl Icahn, Bill Ackman, Nelson Peltz’s takeover attempts at DuPont, etc. Dallas has also been quoted and sourced to by StreetSweeper.org, Marcellus.com, MarcellusDrilling.com, Bakken.com, OilOnline.com, and other physical and online publications. "One place of great inefficiency is in the stressed equity markets – or the markets in which a company appears as bankruptcy or a breakup is inevitable. As equities become stressed they often sell down to absurd levels of value that present, should there be value to be unlocked, opportunities for “venture level” returns. These often range in the 3X-10X range. With my unique ability to actually improve business outcomes by working directly with a company and management/Board I’m in a position, should I view the underlying business as salvageable, to directly improve the long-term viability of the company. I am NOT simply an investor in these names but an acting consultant. This allows me to “overlay my network” and to move the company away from a stressed or defaulting outcome and into an outcome probability that allows the equity price to move substantially higher. Identifying these opportunities has generated shareholders and investors thousands of percentage points in aggregate and is something I’m often recognized by paying subscribers for."
I started trading on a permanent scale five years ago. My goal is to create a stable portfolio over a period of time, whichs generates good stock- and dividend returns. I have a fundamentel approach towards investments decisions. Further, I have a broad experience in tax- and legal advisory (e.g. music rights, corporate income tax, value added tax and salary tax), auditing of financial statements, business consultancy, administrative services and assembling financial statements. My experience covers a wide variety of clients and companies with specific knowledge of the music and related busines.
I have been an investor for a number of years but it's only in the last couple of years that I have made dividends and, perhaps more importantly, the growth of them, the focus of my investment approach. My priority will therefore be on stocks that either pay stable and high dividends and/or are increasing them at a high rate.
Please note that I do not read comments posted here, nor respond to messages here. I don't have the time. If you want my attention, you must seek it directly at my blog.
Aswath Damodaran is the Kerschner Family Chair Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. He teaches the corporate finance and equity valuation courses in the MBA program. He received his MBA and Ph.D from the University of California at Los Angeles. His research interests lie in valuation, portfolio management and applied corporate finance.
He has written three books on equity valuation (Damodaran on Valuation, Investment Valuation, The Dark Side of Valuation) and two on corporate finance (Corporate Finance: Theory and Practice, Applied Corporate Finance: A User’s Manual). He has co-edited a book on investment management with Peter Bernstein (Investment Management) and has a book on investment philosophies (Investment Philosophies). His newest book on portfolio management is titled Investment Fables and was released in 2004. His latest book is on the relationship between risk and value, and takes a big picture view of how businesses should deal with risk, and was published in 2007.
He was a visiting lecturer at the University of California, Berkeley, from 1984 to 1986, where he received the Earl Cheit Outstanding Teaching Award in 1985. He has been at NYU since 1986, received the Stern School of Business Excellence in Teaching Award (awarded by the graduating class) in 1988, 1991, 1992, 1999, 2001, 2007, 2008 and 2009, and was the youngest winner of the University-wide Distinguished Teaching Award (in 1990). He was profiled in Business Week as one of the top twelve business school professors in the United States in 1994.
Editors' Note: Seeking Alpha monitors Dr. Damodaran blog and posts relevant articles on his behalf.
John co-founded Frontera Management, LLC, a systematic global macro firm, in 2008 which merged with AIS Capital Management, LP in September 2013. John served as an AIS principal and portfolio manager until July 2015. Prior to Frontera, John served as a managing director and structurer at U.S. Trust and Citigroup Private Bank in the US and had overall responsibility for developing Union Bancaire Privée's institutional asset management business in Asia. He earlier had been the head of trading and a senior bookrunner in distressed financing, equity derivatives, and convertible bond arbitrage at Crédit Agricole-Lazard Financial Products, Bear Stearns, Credit Suisse, and UBS. John graduated summa cum laude with B.A. degrees in mathematics, statistics, and economics from the University of Rochester in 1992 and earned a Master's degree in finance from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1994.
Georg Vrba is a professional engineer who has been a consulting engineer for many years. In his opinion, mathematical models provide better guidance to market direction than financial "experts." He has developed financial models for the stock market, the bond market, yield curve, gold, silver and recession prediction, most of which are updated weekly at http://imarketsignals.com/.
Hi I'm Lior, an MA graduate in Economics. I have worked for several years in a variety of economic related positions, and in 2010 I started my own blog – Trading NRG, which is a news and analysis blog about gold, silver, natural gas and oil.
I have more than 15 years experience in the financial world within the High tech industry. In the recent years I have made a change and acting as a business operations manager. It allows me to get new and different perspective on the business and operations.
I hold a B.A degree in Statistics and Actuary and a MBA. I'm a dividend growth investor that is looking to execute a sound retirement plan.I constantly learn about it from multiple sources and can say that I am a true fan of SA and many of the writers in this forum.
Contributors: Scott Tzu, Parke Shall, Thom Lachenmann
(contributors write under pen names for anonymity purposes)
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Donald R. van Deventer founded the Kamakura Corporation in April, 1990 and is currently Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Dr. van Deventer's emphasis at Kamakura Corporation is enterprise wide risk management and modern credit risk technology. The second edition of his newest book, Advanced Financial Risk Management (with Kenji Imai and Mark Mesler) was published in 2013 by John Wiley & Sons. In 2003 Dr. van Deventer co-authored Credit Risk Models and the Basel Accords with Kenji Imai. His second book, also with Kenji Imai, is Financial Risk Analytics: A Term Structure Model Approach for Banking, Insurance, and Investment Management published by Irwin in 1996. Dr. van Deventer's first book Financial Risk Management in Banking (with Dr. Dennis Uyemura, Probus Publishing, 1993) is one of the best known books in its field. He has served on the editorial board of the Journal of Credit Risk since 2005. Dr. van Deventer's primary financial consulting and research interests involve the practical application of leading edge financial theory to solve critical financial risk management problems. Dr. van Deventer has been involved in financial advisory assignments including both risk management and mergers and acquisitions. He has worked on assignments for the municipalities affected in the Orange County bankruptcy, in a major derivatives dispute between JPMorgan and a Korean securities firm, for Bank Negara Malaysia, the Department of the Treasury of the United States, governments of three of the OECD countries and many of the world’s largest financial institutions. Prior to founding Kamakura Corporation, Dr. van Deventer was senior vice president in the investment banking department of Lehman Brothers (then Shearson Lehman Hutton) from 1987 to 1990. During that time, he was responsible for 27 major client relationships including Sony, Canon, Fujitsu, NTT, Tokyo Electric Power Co., and most of Japan's leading banks. Dr. van Deventer completed three of the first four mergers and acquisitions assignments for a Japanese client by Lehman Brothers and the first domestic Japanese corporate straight bond underwriting by the firm. From 1982 to 1987, Dr. van Deventer was the treasurer for First Interstate Bancorp in Los Angeles. In this capacity he was responsible for all bond financing requirements, the company’s commercial paper program, and a multi-billion dollar derivatives hedging program for the company. During this time, First Interstate became the first issuer of medium term notes in the Euro market and first issuer of bank medium term notes. Dr. van Deventer also served as senior planning officer for acquisitions, new ventures and corporate strategy, participating in the 1986 attempted take-over of BankAmerica Corporation. Dr. van Deventer was a Vice President in the risk management department of Security Pacific National Bank from 1977 to 1982, where he initiated the duration-based futures hedging program for the bank. Dr. van Deventer holds a Ph.D. in Business Economics, a joint degree of the Harvard University Department of Economics and the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. He was appointed to the Harvard University Graduate School Alumni Association Council in 1999 and has now completed more than a decade of service on the Council. Dr. van Deventer served as Chairman of the Council for four years from 2012 to 2016. From 2005 through 2009, he served as one of two appointed directors of the Harvard Alumni Association representing the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. Dr. van Deventer was named to the CFA Hawaii Advisory Board in 2010. Dr. van Deventer was also named to the Advisory Board of the Pacific Asian Center for Entrepreneurship and E-Business at the University of Hawaii Shidler College of Business in 2012. He served as a director of the Hawaii Bicycling League from 2005 to 2014. Dr. van Deventer also holds a degree in mathematics and economics from Occidental College, where he graduated second in his class, summa cum laude, and Phi Beta Kappa. Dr. van Deventer speaks Japanese and English.
Principal En-lightener - Purveyor of Darkness.
And Now - The Gift...
Stupid is as stupid does - Forrest Gump;
You can't fix stupid, no pill for it, it's fo'ever - Ron White ;
There are idiots, look around - Larry Summers ;
To avoid the pernicious global plague of stupidity, drink the Kool-Aid and become one of the innoculati. The Kool-Aid is available at [VIRUS REMOVED BY ECHELON UNDER ORDER OF PATRIOT ACT II ... transmission terminated]
Author of Quantitative Investing. Designer of the Global Household Index and the systemic risk score MTS10 (click here to learn more). PhD in computer science, Software Engineer, Civil Engineer, 20+ years working in various sectors and countries. Investor focused on market-neutral and low risk portfolios, looking for profitable combinations of value and quality factors. Also interested in short volatility trading and excess returns in closed-end-funds.
Andy Hecht is the chief market strategist for Carden Capital and Carden Futures. Andy is a sought-after commodity and futures trader, an options expert and analyst. He spent nearly 35 years on Wall Street, including two decades on the trading desk of Phillip Brothers, which became Salomon Brothers and ultimately part of Citigroup.
Over the past two decades, he has researched, structured and executed some of the largest trades ever made, involving huge quantities of precious metals and bulk commodities.
Andy understands the market in a way many traders can’t imagine. He’s booked vessels, armored cars and trains to transport and store a wide range of commodities. And he’s worked directly with The United Nations and the legendary trading group Phibro.
Today, Andy remains in close contact with sources around the world and his network of traders.
“I have a vast Rolodex of information in my head… so many bull and bear markets. When something happens, I don’t have to think. I just react. History does tend to repeat itself over and over.”
His friends and mentors include highly regarded energy and precious metals traders, supply line specialists and international shipping companies that give him vast insight into the market.
Andy’s writing and analysis can be found on a number of market based websites including CQG. Andy lectures at colleges and Universities. He also contributes to Traders Magazine. He consults for companies involved in producing and consuming commodities. Andy's biweekly radio show, The Commodities Hour with Andy Hecht, can be heard on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 5-6 PM EST on www.tfnn.com. Andy’s first book How to Make Money with Commodities, published by McGraw Hill was released in 2013 and has received excellent reviews. He is currently working on his second book, Luster. Andy held a Series 3 and Series 30 license from the National Futures Association and is associated as a collaborator and strategist with hedge funds. Andy is the commodity-expert for the website about.com and blogs on his own site technomentals.com.
Jake V. is a hedge fund manager in Georgia. He attended Princeton University during undergrad, and now works for a $4B AUM long/short global equity fund. His expertise include understanding the global economic environment, and positioning a portfolio to withstand the various cycles.
I'm trying to achieve financial independence, primarily via a dividend income and reinvestment strategy, but leaving some space for high-conviction value plays that can feed new dividend positions, and even allowing for the occasional short-term trade to spice things up.
I have worked extensively in trade and investment promotion, and as a public policy analyst, and this has provided a lot of contextual knowledge that is useful for personal portfolio management.
I'm managing editor for SA PRO. I work primarily on our PRO product, though also in support of our marketplace product and in a few other areas on the site. I'm always happy to hear from readers and contributors, whether to help with questions, hear your feedback, or learn how you're using the site. I've been working at SA since September 2012.
I've been investing for 6 years. I used to write articles for Seeking Alpha before becoming an editor (while I'm proud of the work I did, it probably would not have been up to our PRO standards, which is a good thing). I am probably one of SA's most frequent users, and have learned an immense amount from contributors, readers, and SA employees.
Beyond the market, I like reading, travel, writing, playing/writing/listening to music, and learning languages. Probably most relevant to ask me about SA, but you're welcome to get in touch on anything else as well.
Portfolio Management 101 is led by CFA Charterholders with combined investment experience of over 25 years. The articles written by PM101 are intended to be informative and may contain opinions on the soundness of particular investments but should not be considered a recommendation for any particular investor. For this reason, we attempt to not only outline the reasons why we think an investment looks attractive but also highlight the risks that the investment entails. Investors should consider their own investment objectives and profile before using any of PM101 articles as the basis for investment.
WideMoat Capital is a consulting firm in Guadalajara, Mexico focused on supporting small and medium-sized companies with their capital raising needs, finding strategic partners, developing and improving their business models, and evaluating investment opportunities.
I'm a founder of finbox.io which offers a suite of fundamental investing tools that makes it easy to find undervalued stocks. Finbox.io has been featured in Barron’s Magazine on multiple occasions which can be viewed here: https://blog.finbox.io/barrons-features-finbox-io/. My goal is to help investors of all sizes make fundamentally sound investment decisions in the stock market. I previously worked as an investment banking associate advising business owners, boards of directors and management teams on a broad range of transactions.
Twitter: @IbexInvestor; (https://twitter.com/IbexInvestor)
Value investing partnership/hedge fund with a focus on value investing and special situations. The portfolio is very focused, and I typically hold between 20-25 individual long positions in common stocks.
I received my MBA in analytic finance and economics from the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business in March of 2013, where I learned a significant amount about investing. Over the course of my life I've learned immeasurably more from a class that occurs one Saturday every year in Omaha, Nebraska. The class is virtually free of charge, and taught by two elderly men named Warren and Charlie. They teach me more about investing, business and life in 8 hours every year than a lifetime of MBA classes could, and I'm eternally grateful to them. I am also a licensed certified public accountant (CPA) in the state of Illinois.
INDEPENDENT Financial Advisor / Professional Investor- with over 30 years of navigating the Stock market's "fear and greed" cycles that challenge the average investor. Investment strategies that combine Theory, Practice and Experience to produce Portfolios focused on achieving positive returns over a period of time. Providing advice in helping to avoid the pitfalls and traps that wreak havoc on your portfolio with a focus on Income and Capital Preservation.
I manage the capital of only a handful of families and I see it as my number one job to protect their financial security. They don’t pay me to sell them investment products, beat an index, abandon true investing for mindless diversification or follow the Wall Street lemmings down the primrose path. I manage their money exactly as I manage my own so I don’t take any risk at all unless I strongly believe it is worth taking.
Blogging here on SA is part of my research. I write to find out what I think.
I invite you to join the family of satisfied clients send an e-mail :firstname.lastname@example.org
Frank Holmes is CEO and chief investment officer of U.S. Global Investors, Inc., a boutique investment advisory firm based in San Antonio that manages domestic and offshore funds specializing in the natural resources and emerging markets sectors. The company’s no-load mutual funds include the Global Resources Fund (PSPFX), the World Precious Minerals Fund (UNWPX) and the Gold and Precious Metals Fund (USERX). For more insight and perspective from Mr. Holmes, please visit his investment blog, “Frank Talk” (http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/frank-talk/).
Seeking Alpha's transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage.
The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments.
SA Transcripts Team
Alasdair started his career as a stockbroker in 1970 on the London Stock Exchange. In those days, trainees learned everything: from making the tea, to corporate finance, to evaluating and dealing in equities and bonds. They learned rapidly through experience about things as diverse as mining shares and general economics. It was excellent training, and within nine years Alasdair had risen to become senior partner of his firm.
Subsequently, Alasdair held positions at director level in investment management, and worked as a mutual fund manager. He also worked at a bank in Guernsey as an executive director.
For most of his 40 years in the finance industry, Alasdair has been de-mystifying macro-economic events for his investing clients. The accumulation of this experience has convinced him that unsound monetary policies are the most destructive weapon governments use against the common man. Accordingly, his mission is to educate and inform the public in layman’s terms what governments do with money and how to protect themselves from the consequences.
Commodity broker 79-81 I discovered the Gospel In July 1979 (and re-discovered it again in April 2004 -after the G.6 release was dis-continued - actually created the RR time series in the late 1980's). Dr. Leland Pritchard "You have a predictive device nobody has hit on yet" - 9/8/81 My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%. AAA Corporate yields rose to 15.49%. I should receive the Nobel Prize. The data should be classified as "top secret" by the U.S. Gov't. I.e., I let Aladdin out of the Lamp. See: 1938 Member Bank Reserve Requirements - Analysis of Committee Proposal (transactions velocity) http://bit.ly/M0JB7X The outstanding volume of the FRB_NY "trading desk's" 'eligible collateral' fell during the Great Depression. Whereas 'eligible collateral' was multiplied thru colossal Federal deficit financing (where the Gov’t spends much more than it expects to receive), during the Great Recession (but Bernanke still chose to "push on a string"). As Greenspan pontificated in “The Map & the Territory”: “The laws of physics…once identified, rarely have to be revised”: Rates-of-change (roc’s) in monetary flows (our means-of-payment money times its transactions rate-of-turnover), equal roc’s in all transactions in Irving Fisher’s “equation of exchange”: (MVt = PT). Roc’s in nominal-gDp are a proxy for all economic transactions. The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e. the proxies for (1) real-growth, & for (2) inflation indices have been mathematical constants for the last 100 years. However, the FED's target (interest rates), is indirect, varies widely over time, & in magnitude. President Wilson signed “The Federal Reserve Act” into law on December 23, 1913. The Act, "Provided for the establishment of Federal Reserve Banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes". "It was anticipated that credit extended by the Federal Reserve Banks to commercial banks would rise and fall with seasonal and longer term variations in business activity" "Seasonality" (principally the holidays), is the result of the FOMC’s seasonal mal-adjustments (& has its roots in the fallacious "Real Bills Doctrine”). The FOMC, through its "open market power", has the capability of either adding or subtracting to the volume of money in circulation. But the non-bank public determines its mix (the volume of currency vs. bank deposits). This policy is reflected by changes in the Depository Financial Institution’s (DFI), required reserve balances. RRs are based on transaction type accounts 30 days prior. Reserve balances are driven by consumer's & business' payment & settlements. Thus RRs provide the seasonal factor map (economic time series’ cyclical trend). This is inviolate & sacrosanct. Some calls: (1) flow5 (2/26/07; 14:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 152672) Suckers Rally If gold doesn't fall, then there's a new paradigm (2) Reply #187 on Jul 21, 2011, 8:31pm » the stock market should be topping & in the process of a downtrend (3) flow5 Comments (3049) As it now stands, the market falls until Oct. Then expect a very strong rally. Everybody should double up in Nov. & Dec. (i.e., futures, options, margin, etc.) 5 Aug 2011, 09:04 (4) Written on Mar 30 11:31 am prior to the MAY 6th FLASH CRASH: "Contrary to economic theory, & Nobel laureate Dr. Milton Friedman, monetary lags are not "long & variable". The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e., the proxies for (1) real-growth, and for (2) inflation indices, are historically, always, fixed in length (mathematical constants). However the lag for nominal gdp (the FED's target??), varies widely." Assuming no quick countervailing stimulus: 2010 jan..... 0.54.... 0.25 top feb..... 0.50.... 0.10 mar.... 0.54.... 0.08 apr..... 0.46.... 0.09 top may.... 0.41.... 0.01 stocks fall Been saying this for the last 6 months. Should see shortly. Stock market makes a double top in Jan & Apr. Then the real-output of final goods & services falls/inverts from (9) to (1) from Apr to May. Recent history indicates that this will be a marked, short, one month drop, in rate-of-change for real-output (-8). So stocks follow the economy down (with yields moving sympathetically?)" (5) flow5 Message #10 - 05/03/10 07:30 PM The markets usually turn (pivot) on May 5th (+ or - 1 day). (6) POSTED: Dec 13 2007 06:55 PM | The Commerce Department said retail sales in Oct 2007 increased by 1.2% over Oct 2006, & up a huge 6.3% from Nov 2006. 10/1/2007,,,,,,,-0.47,,,,,,, -0.22 * temporary bottom 11/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.14,,,,,,, -0.18 12/1/2007,,,,,,, 0.44,,,,,,,-0.23 1/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.59,,,,,,, 0.06 2/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.45,,,,,,, 0.10 3/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.06,,,,,,, 0.04 4/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.04,,,,,,, 0.02 5/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.09,,,,,,, 0.04 6/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.20,,,,,,, 0.05 7/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.32,,,,,,, 0.10 8/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.15,,,,,,, 0.05 9/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.00,,,,,,, 0.13 10/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.20,,,,,,, 0.10 * possible recession 11/1/2008,,,,,,, -0.10,,,,,,, 0.00 * possible recession 12/1/2008,,,,,,, 0.10,,,,,,, -0.06 * possible recession Trajectory as predicted: (7) 12-16-12, 01:50 PM #1 flow5 "We’re close to seeing the real power of OMOs. R-gDp is likely to accelerate earlier & faster than anyone now expects. The roc in M*Vt before any new stimulus is already above average. With low inflation (given some deficit resolution), Jan-Apr could be a zinger" (8) June's reversal will end the bull market that began in the early 80's. And it will not be because Operation Twist ends (although its end will force yields higher). 20 May 2012, 03:04 PMReply (9) This propelled nominal gNp to 19.2% in the 1st qtr 1981, the FFR to 22%, & AAA Corporates to 15.49%. My prediction for AAA corporate yields for 1981 was 15.48%.
I Know First is a financial services firm that utilizes an advanced self-learning algorithm to analyze, model and predict the stock market.
Co-Founder Dr. Lipa Roitman, a scientist, with over 20 years of experience created the market prediction system. The algorithm is based on artificial intelligence, machine learning and incorporates elements of artificial neural networks as well as genetic algorithms to model and predict the flow of money between 2,000 markets from 3-days to a year: stocks, ETF's, world indices, gold, currencies, interest rates, and commodities.
The algorithm outputs a predicted trend as a number, which in turn, is used by traders to identify when to enter and exit the market. While forecasts can be used for intra-day trading, the predictability tends to become stronger over longer time-horizons such as the 1-month, 3-month and 1-year forecasts.
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