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randallo123

randallo123
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  • Stocks For 2014: Something For Everyone: Part 1 [View article]
    Chuck,
    I like your optimism and writing style, indeed in the long run it is the optimists that will take part in the growth and progress of mankind...

    I went back to an article you wrote 2 years ago (http://seekingalpha.co...), and became curious how your stock selection has performed in the two years since the article. These are the stocks you were long on Jan 5, 2012, performance until Jan 10, 2014 (all adjusted for dividends):

    ABT 53.6%
    AFL 53.3%
    AVP 1.4%
    BBY 71.5%
    CVX 18.4%
    ENDP 104.6%
    EZPW -57.6%
    FISV 98.7%
    GME 91.7%
    HPQ 10.1%
    INTC 8.1%
    IR 150.6%
    ITW 78.8%
    JNJ 54.8%
    KSS 29.4%
    LLL 66.4%
    MDT 63.1%
    SYK 57.7%
    TEVA 1.3%
    WAG 94.5%

    The average is 52.5%. In the same time SPY has gained 50.0%.

    I guess there are two ways to interpret this:
    1. Your optimism has yielded results, you have full participated in the rally of the last two years.
    2. Even a seasoned investor like you, with decades of experience in analyzing companies, can not significantly outperform the index...

    Best wishes!
    Jan 11, 2014. 09:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America‚Äôs Best Companies are Cheap - So Merry Christmas and a Prosperous New Year [View instapost]
    Chuck,
    I like your optimism and writing style, indeed in the long run it is the optimists that will take part in the growth and progress of mankind... That said, I became curious how your stock selection has performed in the two years since the article. These are the stocks you were long on Jan 5, 2012, performance until Jan 10, 2014 (all adjusted for dividends):

    ABT 53.6%
    AFL 53.3%
    AVP 1.4%
    BBY 71.5%
    CVX 18.4%
    ENDP 104.6%
    EZPW -57.6%
    FISV 98.7%
    GME 91.7%
    HPQ 10.1%
    INTC 8.1%
    IR 150.6%
    ITW 78.8%
    JNJ 54.8%
    KSS 29.4%
    LLL 66.4%
    MDT 63.1%
    SYK 57.7%
    TEVA 1.3%
    WAG 94.5%

    The average is 52.5%. In the same time SPY has gained 50.0%.

    I guess there are two ways to interpret this:
    1. Your optimism has yielded results, you have full participated in the rally of the last two years.
    2. Even a seasoned investor like you, with decades of experience in analyzing companies, can not significantly outperform the index...

    Best wishes!
    Jan 11, 2014. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Longs, Keep Your Heads Cool: Q2 Forecast [View article]
    In the last two years worldwide overall smartphone sales grew between Q1 and Q2:
    6.5% last year and 6.8% the year before. So this year it should be 6-7% too. (ok maybe not 7-10% like I said before).
    Apr 24, 2013. 04:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Longs, Keep Your Heads Cool: Q2 Forecast [View article]
    Agree with the previous comment. I was very long NOK until last week after the earnings call. Now, the fear is always to sell at the exact bottom ... if NOK goes up and succeeds from here, so be it.
    In my opinion it does not look that good, though, and Q1 earnings were a wake up call:
    - NOK is losing mind share in the markets - apparently consumer loyalty to the brand is not as strong as previously thought. S40 phones are a dead end when cheap Android phones can offer an ecosystem with a gazillion apps, and for those loyal to Nokia the cheapest Windows phones will be more attractive than the highest Asha phone.
    - WP7 and 8 have been out long enough to expect results, and the market share is pathetic after 1.5 years, considering that it is backed by Microsoft, which is installed on 80% (?) of all computers.
    Time to be realistic: People are just not that much into the WP design and ecosystem. Knowing Microsoft, maybe they will get it right with WP9, but that's more than a year from now.
    - More than 27% growth in Lumia next quarter sounds impressive, but is it really? 7-10% are from overall worldwide smartphone growth and don't mean an increase in market share. Another 5-7% are replacing Symbian sales. In fact up to now Lumia growth has never translated into an increase in overall smartphone market share, Symbian has always declined even faster.
    Q2 may be the first month with a slight increase in smartphone market share, from a very low level, but how much of that will be Lumia 520 replacing Asha full touch sales in India and other emerging markets? Overall Nokia may still be losing market and mind share. Moreover Asha phones were profitable, while Lumia phones sales incur a high fee to Microsoft. Those quarterly platform payments that saved Nokias cash last year were not free money after all.
    Lastly, nobody paid attention to Elop's introducing words at the conference call which hinted at the highest risk for Nokia: Some new mobile OS, some flavor of Android or maybe Mozilla, may come along, become cool and fashionable, and leave WP, which has not grown fast enough, in the dust in the race for third ecosystem.
    Apr 24, 2013. 12:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Blackberry's 3 Million Subscriber Loss May Actually Be Good News [View article]
    Ridiculous logic! BB is losing subscribers because consumers in developing markets are slowly getting rid of their cheap BB Curves and change them for the low to mid range Android, Lumia or Asha. Nobody there is waiting for BB10.
    Apr 1, 2013. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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