Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View turtleuofs' Comments BY TICKER:
  • 3 Signs That Apple's Next Breakout May Be Its Last [View article]
    @Esekia - thanks for sharing. We've had clients in Apple since under $100/share (pre-split) and the same 'gut feeling' that told me to double down on the dip in 2013 with long-dated calls is the same 'gut feeling' telling me that they're increasingly becoming a magician running out of tricks.

    The financials are solid, and they're obviously in no immediate danger of going out of business. The iphone 6 with the larger screen was long overdue and a lot of people have been waiting for a larger screen so they can upgrade. I think the numbers for this phone will continue to be great, giving the stock near-term strength. They will not stop selling lots of phones anytime soon.

    But longer term I truly worry that Apple is too far behind at this point. What used to be their strengths, and my thesis for investing in the stock - are slowly evaporating.
    1) Technological innovation - Not anymore. The Samsung Galaxy S5 is in many ways a superior phone to the iphone 6...and it came out much sooner. The watch? Nothing new.
    2) Seamless ecosystem/Ease of use - This was always the best part. If you owned all Apple products, everything worked together seamlessly. The user experience is all but gone IMO. Have you ever tried resetting your itunes password? Have you ever tried moving music from one itunes account to another? Have you ever tried figuring out how to manage pictures on your phone/the icloud? It's like a visit to the dentist. They make things needlessly complicated.
    3) "Cool" factor - Not as much any more. Most of the people who I know who have iPhones are girls or older (i.e. middle-aged) men.

    At the end of the day, they make an overpriced product that can charge a premium because of its status as the "Mercedes" of cell phones. But we all know consumer preferences can be fickle.

    I refuse to buy any phone where they don't let me use removable storage (I just got a 64GB memory stick for my Samsung for $37 - same thing Apple charges $100's for up front) or a removable/replaceable battery.

    Look forward to more articles in the future
    Nov 3, 2014. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
    Better to hold onto the premium market than to risk diluting the brand and their image. I'd rather they come out with an offshoot brand like Toyota/Nissan/Honda did if they were to try to enter a new segment (ie the middle market)

    Maybe Apple Lite? Apple Jr? Meh, that makes it sound like it's targeted to kids. You get the point. Keep the brand awareness but make it obvious it's a dumbed down version
    Mar 8, 2013. 02:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
    I'm familiar with the ipad, as well as its general inability to replace desktops due to lack of processing power, keyboard, storage capacity, hell pretty much anything that desktops can do which are required by people who are productive with their machine.

    Tablets are for consuming and P.C.'s are for producing.
    Mar 8, 2013. 02:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Apple's Margin Risks Overblown? [View article]
    I'm sorry but the tablet will never fully replace the desktop. It's merely taking away part of the market share that desktop had...namely people who only had a computer for media consumption (ie they only used it to check their email and kill time playing games)

    Turns out maybe that was a bigger portion of desktop users than we thought.

    If you think people are going to be coding the next big website or designing the architecture of a bridge, or creating excel spreadsheets to map portfolio volatility, or whatever it is you do to actually make money on a tablet, you're crazy!
    Mar 8, 2013. 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Exist 3 Years From Now? How Much Will It Be Worth? [View article]
    What's with all the negative comments? Why did everyone read this article as being unequivocally bearish on Apple? I thought it was more neutral than anything. Did you skip over the last sentence that said he will also be analyzing the tremendous potential reward to Apple shareholders as well?

    He's just pointing out the gorilla in the room - that products go in and out of style very quickly.

    I, for one, have been picking up Apple shares for the past week or two. I think paying $155 per share as a call option on their ability to not completely screw up is a bargain. I'm also willing to bet they have at least one or two more decent products in the pipeline.
    Feb 22, 2013. 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple's Threat Real In The Living Room? [View article]
    Great article, thanks. I have about an identical entry point from last week. The same people who were boasting at the top that Apple could do no wrong are the same people now who hate the stock and think it's worthless.
    Feb 6, 2013. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Growth Story Is Over [View article]
    lol wow look at all these comments. I have to agree with you on Apple. It may very well be a good investment at these levels but people who think you can achieve the same growth going forward that it did during the period where they basically invented the smartphone, and then invented the tablet, are just crazy. These products opened up entirely new markets.

    There are only so many people in China and once they introduce the low-cost phone they have to be careful their brand image of the "best in class" doesn't deteriorate. It'd be like if Lamborghini came out with a $30k introductory model. At some point Lamborghinis just wouldn't have the same "Wow" factor.

    Anyway, good article, thanks. Apple obviously isn't going anywhere but they seem to be playing defense rather than offense. They used to be about coming out with the "first and the best" and executing with flawless design. Now this attitude is holding them back as Tim Cook doesn't want to be seen as reacting to the large cell phone display. Had Apple come out with the "phablet" first all you would hear on the call is him telling us why THAT was the best, not the 4".
    Jan 24, 2013. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Without Steve Jobs, Apple Is Without A Map [View article]
    God forbid you point out a flaw in one of Apple's products. You made the first mistake which is to critique the company at all, because as all Apple diehard fanboy "bronies" know Apple is the Savior and can do no wrong!

    If only the world was filled with everyone who thinks like this There would be no typographical errors, and I would back up the truck and allocate 100% of my account to AAPL long call options!
    Sep 24, 2012. 02:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Without Steve Jobs, Apple Is Without A Map [View article]
    What's interesting to me is that this is the first time in the media or popular opinion that it's been "cool" to hate on Apple. Apple always felt like the underdog before this release.

    Clearly this is a changing brand.
    Sep 24, 2012. 02:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Earnings Estimates For Q3-12 [View article]
    Very thought out analysis! Thanks. The only number I think you may be a bit bullish on is iphone sales. They will deep before a refresh for iphone 5 which is (unsurprisingly) all over the media.
    Jul 18, 2012. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • An Apple Story: Alpha, Algos And A Poorman [View article]
    Great read! A lot of times poor mans' algos such as this reek of backtesting results until you find one that sticks, often with no logical reason why. I like the fact that you went about it correctly - you took a logical assumption regarding the amount of calls being purchased, and used your knowledge to then test its effect on stock price. Thanks for sharing!
    Jun 6, 2012. 12:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Boring Might Be Just What You Need [View article]
    Maybe he's referring to the ipad mini? Although the link doesn't reference it.
    Jun 5, 2012. 09:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Apple Ever Get A 20+ PE Again? [View article]
    Actually institutions are under invested in AAPL. Yes, more instituations own it (about the 70% figure you quoted) but their portfolios on aggregate are under-weighted compared to the index, so the 70% figure is misleading.
    May 31, 2012. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Einhorn Still Thinks Apple Is Still Cheap, I Still Don't Want To Own It [View article]
    Saying that Apple will fail because they've just been too damn successful is ludicrous. From when I last checked they don't even hold the lead in smartphone market share.
    May 30, 2012. 02:31 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Obsession And The Facebook IPO [View article]
    Actually there is a law of large numbers because there are only so many people and so much money in the world. It's easier for a company that makes $2,000 a year to grow its revenue by 1,000% than it is for a company that makes $2 billion per year. Apparently size does matter ;o)
    May 17, 2012. 09:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by turtleuofs