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  • Procter & Gamble: Real Problems, Decent Value [View article]
    Someone read Simon Sinek's Ask Why book...and has a business background stronger than some of the PG execs. Good post and you only need to look at HOG's last ER to noted why price cutting will not happen for that iconic brand. They have loyalty and will not succumb to their competition.

    PG's biggest issue from my perspective is shaving. They have 70% of the market, own The Art of Shaving for the higher end, but continue to see very low growth due to a younger crowd that does not shave to the extent of prior generations, prices on razors that they have actually raised and cut costs but are being undercut by the monthly/weekly subscription companies, and a lack of any new "Gillette, the best a man can get" style slogan/loyalty building marketing. If you look at last year's report, the price raise was passed on but they acknowledged the competition is edging (no pun intended) into their shaving business (16-17% of profit, 10% revs).
    Jul 24, 2015. 06:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New capital raise for Dollar Shave Club [View news story]
    Intersting gimmich this past week for me - I am in Seoul on a US base and our PX had the Gillette Sensor 3 - a 4 pack for 6.99. This is my favorite razor as it does not tear up my face and is easy to control, but this one had an added bonus of a new mach3 with 1 blade. So 5 razors for $6.99 (no tax). I also use a DE safety blade from time to time, but it tears my neck up and takes me longer to shave. I tried Harry's - not impressed as the blades rusted after 3-4 uses;tried Dorco and you get what you pay for.

    The concern I have here is that PG is having to resort to gimmicks - they are losing a loyal customer base to cheaper prices. They need to buyout one of the upper-name brand razor companies (art of shaving comes to mind) to then broaden their base to upper-middle-lower class consumers. The gimmicks will only further degrade the margins.
    Jun 23, 2015. 11:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Procter & Gamble: Real Problems, Decent Value [View article]
    To sum up the article, they can't cut to profits. A lot of this is the shaving business, which has been losing loyalty with the new and FAR CHEAPER brands that keep hitting the market. Additionally, several companies have made shaving back into an art and a meaningful part of a man's day - a chance to "pamper" oneself in a masculine way. This has led to the double side safety blade's resurgence ($.25 max per blade) and higher end shaving cream which in the end is just as cheap as Gillette as you use so little with a proper brush.

    David Hoo had the best comments on this - loyalty will go to those who can make the product meaningful. So what does Proctor do - developing a product and trying to gain market share would be costly, so what about acquiring smaller shaving companies that provide these specialty products? Their advertising is focused on simply providing an experience, not a daily ritual. Starbucks managed to bust this issue - people don't go necessarily for the coffee, but for the experience.

    Buying out the Art of Shaving or a similar brand could provide them a new line to go for low/high end shaving markets and increase profitability (better distro, more loyalty). But its advertising is out of control and the lack of new products has it in a tight spot (you can only have so many blades per razor until it gets ridiculous).
    May 22, 2015. 02:11 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers: Stock Crushed - What Just Happened? [View article]
    The great thing about your hubris - you know nothing about me, but make assumptions. First, I shorted the hell out of this 3 years ago while teaching at a big 10 #1 paid off, #2 almost thanks to this stock's rebound. This leads me to my second point - I have played it over the past two years during its rebound mainly through covered calls and I hedge with puts. It has made me a fair amount of money, but I come into it knowing management sucks, hence why puts are essential.

    Third, and most importantly, you should work with the editors here at SA to improve your writing. Your title is not supported in your write-up. You cover one downgrade and play it off as the reason for the fall, but disregard the fall after the last ER from the 90s to 81, the rebound back to 99, the fall back to the upper-80s, and then the return to 94, and finally down to the 70s. The one downgrade dropped the stock from 82 to 78; it was already down on the day you mention about 5% with no news, but you focused only on this downgrade. Then the COO is announced. So improving this would be simple - explain the 99 to 78 drop in full - weather was warmer, analysts giving mixed reviews, maybe the midnight announcement of a new COO (who does that when good news is pending unless shareholders are demanding a replacement?) etc. The fact that the volume spiked nearly 3-fold on the day you mention is a bit of an omen, especially since it showed a strong dump.

    So, at this time, I am down heavily on 600 shares at 98.15, down on some March calls I also bought, but had puts to hedge. But I have made around $9 in covered calls in the last 4 months and will simply continue to sell them over the coming months. I hedged my position for today's disaster of a report with puts, so my loss is quite inconsequential over the long term.

    If you are still adamant about the stock, I would advise you read the PR and conference call, reassess, and write a new article - is the stock still something you recommend? Is this a normal move for DECK to have a rocky 1st Q and then rebound through the year (generally it works if the other summer brands gain traction)? Is retail in general going to continue to suffer? While oil prices put money in the consumers' hands short-term, it normally has LT consequences in the overall job market and labor force that most ignore (ie when shale companies begin failing if prices remain and it affects the entire work force as well as entails a LT return of higher gas prices).
    Jan 29, 2015. 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers: Stock Crushed - What Just Happened? [View article]
    Nice call...once again a crappy report. Glad I bought puts before this report. Will dump those tomorrow and swing them into LT calls, but not before this touches the 60s. Now mid to upper 60s is a buy point for LT growth.

    Even the press release is pathetic. If you can't give a bluf of your top/bottom lines at the open rather than gross margins then you know a bad report is coming. Again, I reiterate management stinks.
    Jan 29, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers: Stock Crushed - What Just Happened? [View article]
    Oh good, a sensitive writer an ego...forget the fact that we pointed out facts that in the short term have left the one year and 3 year returns negative; the two year is solid only because of the change in fashion, bad weather, and inability to hedge raw materials that sent this "pretty girl" tumbling to the 30s from well above 100.

    They buy back shares - great, more money in management's pocket as they reissue them in cheap options in the normal shell game; shareholders might get some return, but they also bought back shares in 2011 at outlandish prices and have done nothing as of late. How about a dividend? Maybe then some of the shorts would be a bit less hesitant to play, but then again mgmt seems to like the volatility.

    Sandbagging guidance has become their habit - it's simply ridiculous and unneeded as they continue to show incompetence. Management continues to NOT support the longer-term investor, just ask anyone who bought in 2011 thinking 3 years would be amazing.
    Jan 27, 2015. 04:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers: Stock Crushed - What Just Happened? [View article]
    So, anyone think it is a coincidence that the stock tanked over 8% on a day that they then announced a COO change at midnight? I know the COO was set to retire as of April, but it just smelled rank. I have been holding this for a while and it drives me nuts how much this moves based on shady deals - it is a good gainer if you know when to buy/sell and use the dips, but the last 2 weeks have just been ridiculous and smell of collusion.
    Jan 26, 2015. 02:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Day The Trend Changed... Or Not [View article]
    This is like one of those voluntary seminars that promises to be huge and then delivers like Ackman for HLF. The funny thing really is that as the seminar is voluntary, I don't have to ever attend another one...which in the case, I won't. SA has literally become laughable as 15 years ago you could not get enough info; now you have every clown sharing their opinion and writing for clicks. It has become a trader's paradise and an investor's nightmare.

    As far as use, the article lacked it.
    Aug 2, 2014. 12:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Pair Trade: Long Pepsi, Short Coca-Cola [View article]
    I hate articles where the first thing the author says is that he/she would never do the recommended strategy...uggghhh...put your money where your mouth is. Way to kill credibility on the entire article with the first line in the article...
    May 13, 2014. 07:22 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    FB reports in the PM on the 23rd, not the AM
    Apr 20, 2014. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Fizzling Soda Sales May Affect Coca-Cola [View article]
    The other issue with only looks at the current Q. If you really want a useful tool, then add an extra piece to it - make people judge on a likert scale of 1-7 if guidance will be way down to way up with 4 being flat. Price after reporting rarely moves on rev + eps; it is normally the guidance.

    As far as my guess, I see KO at .47 and moving up on some decent (not great, but ok) guidance - probably hits 40. However, the 38.50 straddle was going for only about .40 today, so market is not pricing in much.
    Apr 14, 2014. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Fizzling Soda Sales May Affect Coca-Cola [View article]
    I love the fact checking...just remember the author is the founder of estimize and thus pumps it through his articles. If you look at his own personal estimize track record, you find he ranks in the top 5 with "points" but that he is only about as accurate as a coin flip. I find his articles generally to be full of incorrect facts and playing on his site to determine where the stock will go.
    Apr 14, 2014. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Bubble: Spotlight On Zillow And Trulia [View article]
    First off, I love people who post with an anonymous email address and can't even add a somewhat real profile. Secondly, you obviously have a reading comprehension was not addressed to readers but to the author and editors. Also, I am not writing an article on these stocks or getting paid to do so, but if I am going to click on the site and endure the ads, I expect something of some substance with a solid argument that follows the thesis. SA has simply gone down the drain the last several years with the desire to just throw spaghetti against the wall and hope something sticks (ie publish everything).

    You want a solution or option for this, simple: buy the stock and sell in the money covered calls. The risk of these moving down due to extreme volatility due to their valuations can be offset with some simple options risk mitigation as I did last week with selling the 90s for 2.70 after buying the shares at just under 91. Would I hold any of these long, because there is no telling where they will be (or even exist) in 10 years. These are all trading stocks, not investing stocks.
    Apr 7, 2014. 07:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Bubble: Spotlight On Zillow And Trulia [View article]
    To you and your editors: Let's look at your thesis: "But considering the damage was done in large part by snowstorms that will surely end soon, perhaps it's time to take a look at these shares. Does one of these falling chart lines depict a nice buying opportunity?"

    You look at the shares, but don't answer the conclusion. You basically just provided blanket information with no conclusion or one of these a better buy? Your conclusion...wait for acquisition? Seriously? A simple conclusion could be that Z looks overpriced or the Trulia looks underpriced depending on your perspective. Simply put you wasted 5 minutes of my time reading this and 3 minutes to post this response in the hopes that future articles will actually provide insight.
    Apr 4, 2014. 08:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be A Strong Year For Lululemon [View article]
    Looks like this will work out just how I wanted it to...short term trade for a conservative 3% gain. 2 more mortgage payments in the bank...
    Mar 27, 2014. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment