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jimmach123

jimmach123
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  • Expect The Unexpected [View article]
    FB reports in the PM on the 23rd, not the AM
    Apr 20 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Fizzling Soda Sales May Affect Coca-Cola [View article]
    The other issue with estimize...it only looks at the current Q. If you really want a useful tool, then add an extra piece to it - make people judge on a likert scale of 1-7 if guidance will be way down to way up with 4 being flat. Price after reporting rarely moves on rev + eps; it is normally the guidance.

    As far as my guess, I see KO at .47 and moving up on some decent (not great, but ok) guidance - probably hits 40. However, the 38.50 straddle was going for only about .40 today, so market is not pricing in much.
    Apr 14 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Fizzling Soda Sales May Affect Coca-Cola [View article]
    I love the fact checking...just remember the author is the founder of estimize and thus pumps it through his articles. If you look at his own personal estimize track record, you find he ranks in the top 5 with "points" but that he is only about as accurate as a coin flip. I find his articles generally to be full of incorrect facts and playing on his site to determine where the stock will go.
    Apr 14 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Bubble: Spotlight On Zillow And Trulia [View article]
    First off, I love people who post with an anonymous email address and can't even add a somewhat real profile. Secondly, you obviously have a reading comprehension issue...it was not addressed to readers but to the author and editors. Also, I am not writing an article on these stocks or getting paid to do so, but if I am going to click on the site and endure the ads, I expect something of some substance with a solid argument that follows the thesis. SA has simply gone down the drain the last several years with the desire to just throw spaghetti against the wall and hope something sticks (ie publish everything).

    You want a solution or option for this, simple: buy the stock and sell in the money covered calls. The risk of these moving down due to extreme volatility due to their valuations can be offset with some simple options risk mitigation as I did last week with selling the 90s for 2.70 after buying the shares at just under 91. Would I hold any of these long term...no, because there is no telling where they will be (or even exist) in 10 years. These are all trading stocks, not investing stocks.
    Apr 7 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Bubble: Spotlight On Zillow And Trulia [View article]
    To you and your editors: Let's look at your thesis: "But considering the damage was done in large part by snowstorms that will surely end soon, perhaps it's time to take a look at these shares. Does one of these falling chart lines depict a nice buying opportunity?"

    You look at the shares, but don't answer the question...no conclusion. You basically just provided blanket information with no conclusion or analysis...is one of these a better buy? Your conclusion...wait for acquisition? Seriously? A simple conclusion could be that Z looks overpriced or the Trulia looks underpriced depending on your perspective. Simply put you wasted 5 minutes of my time reading this and 3 minutes to post this response in the hopes that future articles will actually provide insight.
    Apr 4 08:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be A Strong Year For Lululemon [View article]
    Looks like this will work out just how I wanted it to...short term trade for a conservative 3% gain. 2 more mortgage payments in the bank...
    Mar 27 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Will Be A Strong Year For Lululemon [View article]
    I have gone long on a shorter term with protection - ITM covered calls at the 46.50 strike. If it does fall tomorrow, best low estimate is to about 44 unless atrocious earnings, but really not expecting the floor to fall out. And if so, then covered calls on a weekly basis should regain me any losses.
    Mar 26 10:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deckers: How Shares Go To $100 [View article]
    Let's see...97 before earnings was one of your Yahoo posts, 110+ or 115+ after ER another.

    To quote you below: "The warm weather years ago was not the issue. Clearly winter and cold weather would come back again(which it proceeded to due now for 2 consecutive winters)."

    Keep telling yourself that...the warm weather shutdown their sales in 2011 and they went out of style for the winter - the riding boot exploded on the scene and caught them with lower margins and an overabundance of inventories. Too many better stocks out there - if they do blow out the next ER, the I have lost complete faith in management as they are either flat out liars or incompetent as they had 2 of the 3 months of earnings on the books.
    Mar 9 10:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    wow, thank you for the amazing insight. before reading your response i had zero idea that guidance mattered after 12 years of trading! i guess i should have included that guidance will be increased thursday as well without a doubt. I am as sure about this as I have been about the last two KORS post X-Mas reports.

    but then again, you provide nothing in the form of real stock movement over one direction or another, just alerts on options IV moves which any simpleton using yahoo finance and a morningstar earnings search could do but will pay for your service out of laziness.
    Feb 23 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Profiting From Good Fortune Or Bad [View article]
    sell the puts on DECK. No way they even come close to estimates - stock is going to 95+ after this week's ER. Estimates are under $3/share and that is a KORS-like lowball.
    Feb 22 10:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.M. Smucker's Hidden Source Of Value [View article]
    Strangle of 90P and 95C would have worked if you had a bit of patience on Friday and exited the puts under 88.

    After my initial post, I found coffee prices have shot up 20% in the last 6 weeks - had a bad feeling about the report after reading that bit of news...SJM has some issues to resolve, but still a solid buy and hold and I will add to my position at anything under 90.
    Feb 16 12:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J. M. Smucker: An Undervalued Dividend-Growth Champ Worth Considering [View article]
    90 seems possible...although I can see a bit of a rebound now back to 97-98 pre-earnings.
    Feb 8 10:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bowl Of Trouble: Beware The Campbell Soup Story [View article]
    Simple answer...straddle or strangle for next ER. Puts & calls at 40-41 strikes are all cheap with movement to 37 or 43 likely.
    Feb 7 07:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.M. Smucker's Hidden Source Of Value [View article]
    Down to 93 is a very solid buy point. It appears they have set a low bar for earnings and anything decent should rebound this back to the 98-100 range. Addition of its own line of coffee might help as well. Seems to be on sale here and a solid strangle play for next week's earnings.
    Feb 7 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • J.M. Smucker's Hidden Source Of Value [View article]
    Smuckers was never a part of pg. They bought foldgers in 2008. They have always been a separate company started in 1897. Perhaps the commenter is confused with facts versus assumptions.
    Feb 7 06:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
255 Comments
119 Likes