TexasRadio

Deflation? What Deflation?

You are hopelessly ignorant.

Is Overindebtedness Pushing Us Into a Deflationary Spriral?

Hey flow5,

Instead of going on like Jude Wanniski, why don't you submit these article length comments as.....articles? I am sure Seeking Alpha would at least consider publishing them.

The Fed Cannot Resolve a Solvency Crisis

From everything I've read lately, the deflation genie is out of the bottle. That's fine with me, the sooner bad debt gets liquidated, the sooner a recovery can begin. I'd prefer not to see this mess extended by government ignorance for another 10-20 years. Not that an economic collapse is the worst that could happen: last time I checked, nuclear weapons were far more popular now than they were in 1945.

The Bear Turns Mildly Bullish

"Behind the financial storm tearing at the world economy is one of the biggest asset bubbles in history"

"The main risk to the world economy is a deflationary spiral in asset
prices"

Those headline quotes are from The Ecomomist's special report of August 2007. Unlike so many contemporary pundits, they do not view the period 1929-1945 as an anomaly. For good reason.

The Fear Is Palpable. Time To Buy.

The key phrase is Graham's "unjustified market declines". This is a justified market decline, and Ben Graham would undoubtedly be selling.

Cadmium Telluride Casts Shadow on First Solar

This is an interesting point. I have noticed the RoHS stickers on all of the Taiwanese mainboards used in my workplace. Why should Taiwanese semiconductors be required to meet RoHS but not Arizona semiconductors? Particularly when you consider that alternative products - which do not use restricted toxins - are both available and more than an effective substitute. The enviromental issues associated with the use of the CdTe panel could perhaps best be parodied in a re-work of a famous quote: "In order to save the environment, we had to destroy it." First Solar might adopt that as a company slogan.

Central Banks and Gold: Manipulation or Money Management?

Ironically, the Bank of England did not wise up until they discovered that among the bidders was a gold mining company. You see, it was cheaper for Gold Fields Ltd to buy gold from the British CB than it was for them to mine it.

CBs sell at the bottom and buy at the top...because that is what government employees do when given OPM to play with. They are the market's fool. Future CB buying will create a mania in gold bullion...economic conditions being what they are now and projected to be.

Gold Due to Correct: Sell Randgold Resources to $29?

John Hathaway has suggested that gold is non-correlated. In a sense, he is right. The correlation of the moment is only verifiable in hindsight, and by that time it is irrelevant. Currently, gold would appear to be benefiting from a deflation of mixed financial assets, to include both residential and commercial real estate, debt, and equity. Throw in a protracted war, energy price instability, an unfolding credit crisis, and it is difficult to see the catalyst for a gold price correction at this time. Sure, it is possible...but unlikely. The risk/reward ratio of such a speculative bet is insufficient as a result. What if a gold buying mania develops? The average Chang has not bought so much as a 1/10 oz. gold panda...yet.

Gold Due to Correct: Sell Randgold Resources to $29?

Barrick reportedly has one of the best reserve profiles of any comparable miner. In addition, they have been improving their operations for years. While I don't know anything about Dennis Gartman, I do know that no one can predict the future. That doesn't stop them from trying and the tool most employed is past chart action. Forget the charts and stick to the macro-economic picture. Gold is going up in a recessionary/deflation... environment that is not going to disappear next month. That's why the chartists are scared. Read closely, and you'll see the fear. I have call options on Barrick and I see no reason whatsoever to close the position.

Gold Due to Correct: Sell Randgold Resources to $29?

The so-called "smart money" (i.e. commercial traders) are supposed to be short gold at epic levels. Despite this, the spot price continues to climb. Why? Because the variables of the short equation did not account for the continued banking crisis, dollar deterioration, and South African mining shutdowns. It is likely that the recent spike in the spot price is due not only to the aforementioned issues but short covering as well. None of these issues will be solved before the end of the year. Thousand dollar gold is looking more credible with each passing day.

First Solar's Momentum Is Seemingly Gone

Plenty of people got burned shorting internet companies. They had no idea just how big the bubble could get. However, in the end, the bubble burst and so did most of the companies. Remember when Sun Microsystems was $100 a share? They are still around, but considerably cheaper. There is no reason to expect anything different from the solar power bubble.