Is the short thesis on Herbalife (HLF +4.8%) really "in tatters," as D.A. Davidson's Tim Ramey suggests (I, II)? The analyst debates the point head-to-head with Herb Greenberg on CNBC. Greenberg notes that the YTD rally in the shares in not evidence of anything other than the stock going up, suggesting that the move has little to do with underlying claims about the company's business model. Ramey counters by reminding Greenberg that analysts get paid to make calls on where stocks are going and so far this year, HLF is up 48%. [View news story]
There is no short thesis. There only is a "let's spread lies and make a buck when the stock drops" thesis.
Why Is Gold Draining Out Of COMEX Warehouses? [View article]
The thing with the COMEX is that they do not have to deliver physical gold. They can declare force majeur and settle in cash, or just default.
I never understood why anyone wants to do business with the COMEX. Retail investors should buy GLD if they want a paper vehicle, or go to the local (online) coin shop to buy bullion. Large and institutional investors can buy GLD if they want a paper vehicle, or contact a bullion bank to have physical delivered to their own vault.
Why Is Gold Draining Out Of COMEX Warehouses? [View article]
SUPPOSEDLY, China has been buying 1200 tonnes of gold. Delivered you say? Did you see in fact a line of trucks delivering physical gold, a.k.a. bullion to Shanghai warehouses? I think you didn't.
As long as "buying" means "placing an order and getting a receipt" they are merely shuffling book entries.
Japan's 'Reflation' Policy - Upsetting Global Market Balance? [View article]
"The second thing worth pointing out is that the last time the yen suffered a bout of extended weakness, namely after its 1995 spike high, it very likely helped to trigger the Asian crisis (incidentally, China also devalued the yuan sharply in 1994). A number of Asian countries had pegged their currencies to the US dollar, and so the Greenspan boom was replicated in them. However, as the yen weakened and their currencies remained firm, their current account and trade deficits widened ever further, requiring more and more inflows of money from abroad. When foreign investors became suspicious of the sustainability of the boom, they fled and the Asian crisis was the result.
Something along similar lines may well happen again, and note that this time it is China stands out as the country with one of the strongest currencies in Asia."
Many Asian countries do not have current account and trade deficits today. However, South Africa and some of the BRIC countries do. Thus, I would expect a South Africa or Brazil crises before one from Asia. In fact, the Rand looks like it is going to plunge through 10 and could trade as low as 14 to the dollar this year.
Annaly: Waiting To Buy Still The Best Course [View article]
"This steepening of the yield curve in a rising rate environment (a so-called"bear-steepener) hurts mortgage backed securities (MBS) and hence mREITs given the interest rate risk in their portfolios. "
It does not hurt floating-rate MBS. If mREITs are pro-active and switch their portfolios from fixed-rate to floating rate, a rising rate environment should not be a problem.
Armour Residentail (ARR +4.8%) surges after holding its monthly distribution steady at $0.07/share. Capstead Mortgage (CMO +2%) gains as well after maintaining its quarterly payout at $0.31. The mREIT sector (REM +1.5%). Some other names moving: Invesco (IVR +2.1%), Two Harbors (TWO +1%), Hatteras (HTS +1.6%), Anworth (ANH +1.8%), Western Asset (WMC +3.4%), PennyMac (PMT +2.1%). [View news story]
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Problem with the Rand is the very weak South African economy, their deficits, and the possibility of a wage-price spiral in local currency leading to severe inflation and perhaps hyperinflation.
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http://bit.ly/121hrgX
Is the short thesis on Herbalife (HLF +4.8%) really "in tatters," as D.A. Davidson's Tim Ramey suggests (I, II)? The analyst debates the point head-to-head with Herb Greenberg on CNBC. Greenberg notes that the YTD rally in the shares in not evidence of anything other than the stock going up, suggesting that the move has little to do with underlying claims about the company's business model. Ramey counters by reminding Greenberg that analysts get paid to make calls on where stocks are going and so far this year, HLF is up 48%. [View news story]
Why Is Gold Draining Out Of COMEX Warehouses? [View article]
I never understood why anyone wants to do business with the COMEX. Retail investors should buy GLD if they want a paper vehicle, or go to the local (online) coin shop to buy bullion.
Large and institutional investors can buy GLD if they want a paper vehicle, or contact a bullion bank to have physical delivered to their own vault.
Why Is Gold Draining Out Of COMEX Warehouses? [View article]
I think you didn't.
As long as "buying" means "placing an order and getting a receipt" they are merely shuffling book entries.
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Japan's 'Reflation' Policy - Upsetting Global Market Balance? [View article]
Something along similar lines may well happen again, and note that this time it is China stands out as the country with one of the strongest currencies in Asia."
Many Asian countries do not have current account and trade deficits today.
However, South Africa and some of the BRIC countries do.
Thus, I would expect a South Africa or Brazil crises before one from Asia. In fact, the Rand looks like it is going to plunge through 10 and could trade as low as 14 to the dollar this year.
Annaly: Waiting To Buy Still The Best Course [View article]
It does not hurt floating-rate MBS.
If mREITs are pro-active and switch their portfolios from fixed-rate to floating rate, a rising rate environment should not be a problem.
Armour Residentail (ARR +4.8%) surges after holding its monthly distribution steady at $0.07/share. Capstead Mortgage (CMO +2%) gains as well after maintaining its quarterly payout at $0.31. The mREIT sector (REM +1.5%). Some other names moving: Invesco (IVR +2.1%), Two Harbors (TWO +1%), Hatteras (HTS +1.6%), Anworth (ANH +1.8%), Western Asset (WMC +3.4%), PennyMac (PMT +2.1%). [View news story]
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