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  • Predicting The Stock Market And Defeating The Efficient Market Hypothesis - Part I  [View article]
    "The chart from WSJ shows that when sell-side analysts issue Buy and Sell recommendations, the Sell recommendations frequently outperform those with Buy or Hold ratings. This is an embarrassment for Wall Street..."

    It is called the Big Short: trading opposite your advance to your clients. Tell them to sell, the Goldman Saches buy, and in the end the bank wins.
    Feb 9, 2016. 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Having Cash Is Not A Sin, It Is Smart!  [View article]
    And of course, there are other things to watch for.
    Back in 2009, the FED slashed interest rates. Politicians were making noises, the market was undervalued.
    I did not buy right at the bottom in March, but a couple months later.
    Feb 8, 2016. 08:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Having Cash Is Not A Sin, It Is Smart!  [View article]
    Be+Here+Now,

    I don't know when the exact peak is. That is why it is an indicator. It is not an absolute.
    I have a list of stocks that I watch with buy prices where I think they are undervalued. When they reach that price, I look at the indicator to see if we are just past peak. That may be several months after the real peaking event. Then I buy.
    However, it usually means I buy later, rather than earlier.
    Feb 8, 2016. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Having Cash Is Not A Sin, It Is Smart!  [View article]
    Believe what you want to believe, The_Mick.
    The only suggestion I can give you is to do your own research and not parrot the party line of "timing does not work".
    Feb 7, 2016. 09:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Having Cash Is Not A Sin, It Is Smart!  [View article]
    I am 30% cash right now. I will buy back when I see signs of capitulation and/or bottoming.
    A good ratio to follow is TLT/HYG (ratio of treasury bonds viz. high yield bonds). When it is rising (as today) stresses are building. It peaked in late 2008 and late 2011, right at the bottom of the stock market. When it peaks once again, it is time is to buy.
    We are getting closer, but are not yet there.
    Feb 6, 2016. 08:11 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capitalism Is Grinding To A Halt  [View article]
    Why did public debt decrease in the late 40's and 50's? Is this due to World War II? And if so, why did that war decrease debt?
    Ceteris paribus, we need a World War III to get rid of the debt once again?
    Feb 6, 2016. 06:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset Class Weekly: I'm TLT, I'm Dynamite  [View article]
    Love the pro stocks and pro bonds commentary from the equity AND bond lemmings. I prefer the sidelines in cash for now.
    Feb 6, 2016. 06:34 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Asset Class Weekly: I'm TLT, I'm Dynamite  [View article]
    Bond funds are good for trading only. You own them for perhaps a year, then sell.
    Currently, TLT and others are at all time highs and trade at sky high valuations. The only reason to buy now is if you expect a bigger calamity than 2008. Like nuclear Armageddon or something. Otherwise, you are too late and better wait on the sidelines.
    Feb 5, 2016. 06:11 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Great Bargain In MAXIMUS Shares  [View article]
    Just became an even bigger bargain.
    Feb 5, 2016. 06:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thoughts On MetLife And AIG  [View article]
    David, what do you think of UVE?
    Feb 5, 2016. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Fed Is Making Me Nervous  [View article]
    I disagree that bond-proxies like NLY will do well soon enough.
    If you look at bonds funds like TLT, it is trading close to all-time highs and you have to ask yourself how much higher it can get. Then why has NLY not followed? There must be something else horribly wrong with it.
    Feb 5, 2016. 11:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Half Of U.S. Income Is Over $125,000 Per Year  [View article]
    On an island far far away there are 10 people. Nine of them make $1 per day. One guy makes $1 million per day. Median salary: $1 per day. Normal person's conclusion: exteme poverty and extreme inequality. Jason's conclusion: half of islands income is over $100k per day. Wow! Such a wealthy islanders!
    Jan 30, 2016. 07:51 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Yield Curve Says No Recession  [View article]
    I am sure the FED can read charts too and look at the 2-10 Yield Spread curve. Then why does the FED never preempt yield curve flattening/inversion by slashing rates earlier?
    Jan 29, 2016. 10:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Half Of U.S. Income Is Over $125,000 Per Year  [View article]
    The 3rd column add zero relevance as it is a meaningless calculation.
    The only thing that matters is the median income, which is $50K, as half the population makes this number.

    So what half of all dollars of income are earned above the 13th percentile of people. That does not make it a "median" with respect to the number of people. The 13th percentile actually represent very few people.

    AGI should always be discussed in relation to the number of people. Not as a standalone number.
    Jan 29, 2016. 12:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mastercard Is At A Rare Buy Point  [View article]
    You think it (the lower revenue growth rate) mostly is a currency issue?
    Jan 29, 2016. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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