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dieuwer

dieuwer
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  • Is a Plunging Euro Bullish or Bearish for Gold? [View article]
    You had your answer yesterday
    Apr 28 08:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Implementing the Tactical Short Bond Position [View article]
    An alternative to bonds is a high dividend yield stock with collar strategy.
    Apr 27 09:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Buy Property? [View article]
    People tend to forget there is more to a house than just the mortgage. Suppose you buy a house now, what are you going to do when confronted with soaring property taxes? What are you going to do when confronted with soaring repair costs? Insurance? Utility bills? PMI?
    Apr 26 04:19 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Farrell's Rule #8: The Bear Market's 3 Stages [View article]
    Cyclical bull market, but more like 1975 - 1982 or 1937 - 1942.
    Apr 26 03:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Bond Yields at 12-Year High, Contagion Increasing [View article]
    If I was Merkel, I would already have been in secret talks with the dutch to see if they would go along with a new "Rhineland-Mark".
    And as a true politician, I would do ANYTHING in my power to make sure I won the next election...lol

    Therefore, NO BAILOUT. Screw Club Med.
    Apr 26 03:33 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Bonds Sink as Contagion Fears Gain Steam [View article]
    "Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain will all require EU-led financing measures once the bond market grows bored with Greece. The end result will be the degeneration of the eurozone's status to that of a junk bond until the trading bloc ultimately breaks up or breaks down."

    Agreed.

    Therefore, Germany MUST NOT agree to a bailout but leave the euro zone NOW.
    Apr 26 03:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greek Bond Yields at 12-Year High, Contagion Increasing [View article]
    Bailout or not bailout, the end result is the same:

    If bailout, the balance sheet of Germany will be impaired. Banks are saved, but the euro will go down much more leading to severe inflation. Also, the sovereign credit rating of Germany will go down the drain.

    No bailout: the PIIGS default. German banks must be rescued again by the state. Thus, the balance sheet of Germany will be impaired. Credit rating also down the drain.

    The best solution would be for German banks to quickly dump Greek bonds, and subsequently for Germany to quit the euro. Then, German euro debt can be redominated in the stronger "Rhineland-Mark" thereby effectively inflating away the euro-debt. For the PIIGS all that is left is a hyperinflationary depression.
    Apr 26 03:22 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Labor Shortage Could Mean Inflation and Trade Deficits for China [View article]
    Looks like China no longer need to artificially depress their currency in order to gain export advantage to alleviate labor supply.
    If labor is tight and inflation is heating up, why not let the Yuan appreciate? It would solve several problems at once: 1) inflation would moderate, 2) imported goods would become cheaper, and 3) purchasing power of the workers would improve making them more happy.
    Apr 26 11:31 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Labor Shortage Could Mean Inflation and Trade Deficits for China [View article]
    I thought China has a labor surplus.
    Apr 26 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Bailout Has Me Thinking About Creditanstalt [View article]
    Sure, for now the euro acts on Greece as some sort of gold standard. But we also know how 1932 ended: debt will be inflated away.

    We probably discussing two different things again. Edward is talking about what is happening NOW, while I am looking at what will happen in the FUTURE.
    Apr 25 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Bailout Has Me Thinking About Creditanstalt [View article]
    True, but the ECB can print zillion euros and hand them to Greece. They cannot print gold.
    Apr 25 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 21st Century Competitive Currency Devaluations [View article]
    There is another scenario (3): Germany and Holland leave the euro!
    In this case, the Club Med euro will most likely depreciate and restore competitiveness among Club Med countries. Germany and Holland will use the new "Rhineland-Mark" and keep running current account surpluses. A win-win situation.

    Also, the US cannot cry bloody murder because only Club Med would become competitive. Germany and Holland would most likely have a neutral balance with the US.
    Apr 25 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece Bailout Has Me Thinking About Creditanstalt [View article]
    The comparison with 1929-1933 is somewhat misguided. During those years, the world was on a gold standard that did not allow for large liquidity injections, expansion of the money supply, nor QE.
    Only when Roosevelt devalued the dollar ended the depression.
    Of course, the oversupply of labor compared to capital goods was not yet rectified, only later when WW-II was started.

    Today, we do not have a gold standard. The FED, ECB and BOJ can print UNLIMITED quantities of paper money and take the impaired assets from the balance sheets of the governments onto their own. Therefore, there will not be so much as a 'deflation of assets,' as well as a 'deflation of the currency' and purchasing power.
    Apr 25 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Recovery Nowhere in Sight [View article]
    It is called "Strategic Default": consumers are refusing to make mortgage payments and instead using that money to go on a spending spree. THAT is the reason consumer discretionary stocks have been on a tear.
    Apr 25 03:20 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro Strength Remains, Despite Greek Uncertainty [View article]
    Yesterday I saw a news item about California on European TV. The topic was: California is more broke than Greece! LOL.
    Apr 23 02:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,188 Comments
2,694 Likes