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  • Ultra Cheap Mobile Phones Will Upset The Industry Apple Cart [View article]
    STAY SHORT Michael! You lost money all last year, and this year so far. I LOVE IT. Yes you guess right I am LONG APPLE. One day you will be a believer...on that day I am out of my APPLE position! I have the January 15 calls ($70.00) that are deep in the money, January 16 calls ($95.71/split adjusted and $100/split adjusted). Rolling in the money thanks to you! Keep publishing these articles and some day the market will actually believe you and APPLE will fall. Until then, I will play with the "houses" (or is it your) money :)
    Aug 15, 2014. 12:08 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: A Reversal Of Fortune Seems Inevitable [View article]
    Michael:

    Maybe one day you will not use % growth to measure a company like APPLE! Just remember you can use statistics in percentages to prove your point, but the real fact of the matter is this: Would you rather have 12% growth (we are only talking about top line here) of $100 Billion with PROFITS, or 24% for a $10 Billion company with LOSSES?

    Hedging or not, you must have lost a lot on APPLE short position, because I have profited HUGE on APPLE calls! I still have JAN 15 70's, JAN 16 95.71, and JAN 16 100 left! Even though I still have 10 contract left of the 70's that investment has returned over 275% and the remaining 10 are basically at $0.00 cost, so you can do the math. We will see what the market has in store for APPLE, but to me Apple has a much better chance to go to $110 - $120 (a 17% - 26% increase in value) before January 2016 than $78 - $68 (a 17% -26% decrease in value)!

    All numbers obviously rounded numbers just to give you a look, and also after split!

    Mr. Blair, you talk a big talk, but one day, you should step up and state you were wrong about APPLE. Let me state this, I notice every time the stock has bumped up in price and then as a two or three day losing streak, one of your APPLE is Doomed articles comes out. It gets all the "Pro" APPLE side excided and they write back, but I am a LONG term investor, and hold stock that I feel are under-valued for at least two years (ie. FB which I have owned since 1 1/2 years before it went public, F, GM,[New], GE, and some REIT's stocks), and enjoy the ups and downs of a market (new entry points when down). However, when I started buying APPLE Calls, I've turned into a little different investor ... however I by at least 1 year out options.

    So thank you for being so negative with APPLE, and as long as I am playing with the houses money (by the way a total of over $160k in a year and 1/2) I will be a strong supporter of APPLE when it goes down 3-7% and buy LEAP's, and a seller when it gains the 3-7% ++ back.

    So keep losing you shorts ... and keep using your statistics, and I will keep taking your money to my MS account! Thanks.
    Aug 9, 2014. 12:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quantifying Apple's Strategic Errors [View article]
    Michael:

    My wife and I were taken to lunch by my MS Broker in December 2013, and told that we had the highest return in the whole MS Office. It was over $100k, and the fact of the matter is I buy the APPL Options and cashed in over $80k profits in 2013 for that alone.

    Every time Apple hits the road block, (like these past earnings), I buy far enough out and a little bit above the trading price after the big drop, then just wait. I sell about 30 days out. I keep repeating this.

    The only thing I have to say about the article and your stand is, you made some of your money back (and I hope you took advantage of the drop after earnings to lock that recovery), but I still think that Apple with the Revenues it produces and the Net Income it produces, does have to have a massive PERCENT increase to satisfy stock holders. I would much rather see a 10% increase in Apples top line (or bottom line), than a 50% increase in a stock like TWITTER!

    But thank for the read from the other side. If I have made that much money on my side (Long - Calls), somebody has lost that much on the Short side :) !
    Feb 13, 2014. 12:47 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: 5 Different Insiders Have Sold Shares This Year [View article]
    Get real! What about all the options these insiders purchased? Boy, I am panic by this article - NOT! Is this why UBS raised their price target to $72.00?

    You must admit (even though you are always looking at Insider Selling as only NEGATIVE) - that these sells were already known months before, the 6,210,899 shares sold (Nov - Jan) lost out on $46,395,000+ just on the share price increase today (assuming a $61.00 sales today), and gee maybe they have a bill or two to pay - but a second home for cash, buy a new car, pay property taxes, or even pay taxes. What a concept.

    Why would any of these persons buy stock in FB when all they have to do is exercise some options?

    Get a life ...
    Jan 30, 2014. 02:21 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook's Earnings Preview: What Investors Need To Know [View article]
    It is nice to see SA giving some interesting points of view on FB. In the past the bias has been on the negative side. As far as losing some teens, or for that matter any category, that is not a big deal - is it with the amount of users FB has compared to Twitter, LinkedIn, Google, or ...

    In fact my personal opinion is: if FB loses more teens and gains in the baby boomers or older generation that is a plus, as baby boomers and the older generation has the $$$ (or at least more than the teens that have to get money from parents or ...).

    Like I've said, I am a long term investor of certain stocks, and have own FB shares since October 2011 (yeah before the IPO)!

    My prediction is that FB will beat these next two quarter's but after that it is anybodies game.
    Jan 23, 2014. 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Good For Speculation, Not Investment [View article]
    I agree with "nun" - first off, the "insiders" must report to the SEC that they intend to sell their shares (or buy shares) well in "advance" of when you SA "writers" start telling your readers "Look at all the INSIDER SELLING!" It is NO surprise if you watch the SEC filings which should be a part of your homework when following a stock.

    Insiders sell for a number of reasons, to buy a house, pay taxes, give monetary gift, the list goes on, but let's include one more for argument sake - they may want to diversify their holdings as year over year they "exercise" the maturing options they get!

    You rationalize on thing when you bring up the point about insider selling - that is can only mean that the insider thinks the stock is going to go down (so you sensationalist try to help it go down),

    And as far as the stock going to $20 ... you got it from the same place the $100 got their price target! The stock price will keep rising as FB keeps reporting better earnings quarter after quarter, but be prepared to sell a little when the they miss...

    Enjoy the ride! Yes I am LONG FB.
    Dec 20, 2013. 12:40 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook, Zuckerburg, J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs And Morgan Stanley Must Face Lawsuit [View article]
    Everybody forgets about the rocky road YAHOO had when it went public. I (with a group of other investors) pooled money together and bought 1,200 shares (when it went public), and watched as we made money that morning, and then watched as we ended up losing that money and then some (on paper) by the end of trading. Six months or so later the 4 major holders in that group bought another 1,000 shares at a much lower price. We held onto the stock for 1 and 1/2 years and each made 12%-18% after taxes! If we had held onto our stock in Yahoo for 5 years, the four would be millionaires today. The only difference I see is that FB had over 2 BILLION shares (eventually) and so it won't have split after split after split like Yahoo.

    Except for one quarter, FB has been profitable!

    As far as Mark selling some shares, he has class "B" shares which he trades into class "A" shares one for one. Two more points I want to make here is, that class "B" shares have 10 votes for each share, while class "A" shares have only one. So when he converts, he is giving up some control of his company! He is young (still) and so I don't expect this to happen too many more time in the next 5 - 10 years. Secondly, he is a director and must file paperwork well in advance of selling - so there should be NO surprise that he is selling a SMALL portion of his holdings (tax reasons, donations, and/or to diversify just to name a few reasons - not to mention the stock has recovered nicely).

    It was a "Broken" stock, not a "Broken" company! Facebook should not be held accountable for MS, JPM, and GS (and NASDQ) miscues.

    I am a LONG TERM investor, and don't feel SORRY for the flipper of stocks! Flippers or Short Term investors don't always come out on top.

    Remember, the whole reason a company goes IPO is to raise capital for itself not those short term investors or flippers!

    The real problem the expert investors saw the 2 BILLION shares and backed off buying, which gave the "opportunity" to buy for the retail investors. How many retail investors got a chance to buy Twitter? I have over $600k in my MS account(s) - and I did not get 1 share of that IPO! This was the one stock I wanted to be a FLIPPER on, as I don't see any positive earning until 2015 - that is too far off and the price of the stock after IPO (and the release of 400k more shares after lock-up) means I wouldn't touch that stock until it got down below the IPO price (as far as long term investing goes).
    I still own my FB stock (I bough on Sharespost prior to the IPO) and I will be glad to hold on for the first 5 years of being public.
    Dec 20, 2013. 11:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Bears Throw In The Towel [View article]
    Twitter has not made a dime! In fact they don't expect to make any profit until 2015! So what has "made" money for the stock holders is the law of supply and demand, and antisipating what those earning will be in 2015 (if you hold on long enough). Let's see what happens when the 400,000 plus shares come off restriction :(!
    Dec 13, 2013. 04:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China Mobile Deal Will Be Big For Apple, But Not That Big [View article]
    I would like to know what stocks his and his family portfolio has (I would short those), and what other shorts he has (so I can buy long). Every analysis I have read states that at a minimum it would add $4.00 bottom line! Also, I LOVE SA, I start buying calls in February 2013, and have made 8 purchases with strike prices from $400 to $520 and I have netted $87,005.08 with 1 April $520 call and 5 April $470 calls left. I had hoped to sell them before the end of this year, but looks like I will wait until closer to the 1st QTR earnings report. Then I will sell, watch these SA "writers" write the worse is to come, watch their followers take the stock down, and then buy +6 months out calls again!

    What a life!
    Dec 10, 2013. 03:59 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Insiders Are Selling Apple [View article]
    I put Markus in the same boat as other SA "Authors" (Tim W. when he declared last September that Facebook would hit $0.00 before it ever reached $40 - - matter of fact he hasn't published anything since then about Facebook). BUt Apple is Apple - and the long term investor has always done well - especially around the corner from some "Product Releases."

    So hold on to your stock, until the product releases, and then see what you need to do.

    There was another article about how FB "Insiders" sold their stock (yes when it went public - and they had held on to it for numerous years)! That too was a most ridiculous article to write! It was spelled out in the S1 and all the amendments!
    Aug 5, 2013. 05:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whatever You Do, Don't Sell Facebook Now [View article]
    I still laugh at another SA writer (Tim W.) that proclaimed that FB would hit $0.00 before it hit $35. Where is he now? Investors (not flippers) must own this stock to make money, as this is just the first quarter of many quarters to come, that FB will prove - it takes money to make money! Their business plan was a little flawed at the beginning, as hey didn't think to monetize mobile, but watch out now!
    Jul 25, 2013. 08:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Apple Comeback Begins [View article]
    I agree with most of what was said in the comments, but if you take the cash out of the PE calculation, the PE would be a little above 6. So the $20 was no surprise to me, but it should have been more! Also not only the beat in the report and the large buy back, but the short covering as well.

    Even as the stock went up, the SA writers were trying to spin the better than expected results into a negative for Apple. So I am hoping all the shorts didn't cover, and the next little pop in Apple, (after the sane analyst start raising the price targets), will be forcing the shorts to cover more!

    A more realistic price for Apple is closer to $500 then $400. Get ready for the next move up!
    Jul 25, 2013. 07:38 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FQ3 iPad units would've been down only 3% Y/Y rather than 14% if not for channel inventory shifts, CFO Peter Oppenheimer states on Apple's (AAPL) CC. But that figure still implies share loss, given industry growth. iPad and iPhone channel inventories fell by 700K and 600K Q/Q. iPhone sales rose 51% Y/Y in the U.S., 66% in Japan, and 400%+ (off a low base) in India, even as they fell elsewhere. $106B of Apple's cash is offshore. $4B spent to repurchase 9M shares in FQ3, but more shares retired (hence the $16B repurchase figure). Share count lowered by 22M Q/Q. Greater China iPhone sell-through -4% Y/Y; Mainland China +5%, Hong Kong -20%. DRAM pricing is pressuring margins; NAND flash prices are stable, and LCD prices have fallen. App Store revenue was $2.4B. Shares +3.5% AH. (more on Apple) (live blogs: I, II[View news story]
    Eric:

    It's not that I "want" good news, but SA seems to publish the articles like yours that is doom and no gloom! Editors like you take good news a company has, and twist it to be bad news, and then publish it! Take away Apples cash, with Revenues, Margins, and Earnings - should Apple be trading just above 6 PE? Even with some bad news, it should not be trading at these levels - gee I guess the shorts got the market down enough to buy just before the earnings release! It is not all Doom!
    Jul 24, 2013. 10:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Translating Apple Inc.'s Guidance Into An EPS Number [View article]
    But at these levels of Revenue, Margins, and Income isn't a 10 PE ratio low? I still say Apple is undervalued as compared to the rest of the market. So, the rest of the market either needs to come down to Apple levels, or Apple must rise to the market level.
    Jul 23, 2013. 08:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FQ3 iPad units would've been down only 3% Y/Y rather than 14% if not for channel inventory shifts, CFO Peter Oppenheimer states on Apple's (AAPL) CC. But that figure still implies share loss, given industry growth. iPad and iPhone channel inventories fell by 700K and 600K Q/Q. iPhone sales rose 51% Y/Y in the U.S., 66% in Japan, and 400%+ (off a low base) in India, even as they fell elsewhere. $106B of Apple's cash is offshore. $4B spent to repurchase 9M shares in FQ3, but more shares retired (hence the $16B repurchase figure). Share count lowered by 22M Q/Q. Greater China iPhone sell-through -4% Y/Y; Mainland China +5%, Hong Kong -20%. DRAM pricing is pressuring margins; NAND flash prices are stable, and LCD prices have fallen. App Store revenue was $2.4B. Shares +3.5% AH. (more on Apple) (live blogs: I, II[View news story]
    Who wrote this? This is a typical example of SA writing, as they tend to put a negative spin on any positive news! This is writing is not only reserved for Apple, but other stocks like Facebook, etc. BUt I guess that is how they get readers, and people like me to comment at times - and that is what keeps them in business.
    Jul 23, 2013. 07:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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