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SMJTRUST

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  • Let's Face It, Facebook's Growth Is Decelerating [View article]
    I have to I am like gregphil22, in that I have 5K shares or so that I bought PRE-IPO ("Investment") through an auction that I had planned to hold for at least a year AFTER the lock-up expiration (November 14, 2012). I also had bought FB stock to "Trade" with which I bought for an average of about $18.25 per share, with plans to add to those shares when the price dips below $18.75 and sell some when the price gets above $22.00. I had plan to be out of the "Trading" position completely before November 14, which except for less than 1,000 shares I am.

    Once November 14 comes, and I see the volume and movement on FB, I will then pick an entry point to buy long, and then add 15% to 20% to that price to start my selling again. This way, every quarter for as long as FB has SA authors BASHING it every chance they get, I can see myself doing this quarter after quarter after quarter.

    I know I can do the same thing with calls and puts, but those have EXPIRATION dates, and if your wrong on the position, your time is limited, whereas if it is a stock position, you can just hold your long position into a longer term gain. I am still a believer that FB will not just go away ...
    Oct 29 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Facebook Regain On Mobile Ads Momentum? [View article]
    Like I said before (without being specific on how many shares) 50% of what I own in FB is for a long term hold position, with only 5K shares in my IRA (which is even longer). The other 50% of the shares I own, were bought for trading purposes. I separate my account into a Long Term Investment stock ownership, and a Trading Short Term account. That 50% short term trading account is were I produce enough Capital to invest in my long term account (by the way at least 25% of that is in Dividend paying stock only - which generates cash too), and enough to pay my Federal and State estimated Tax liability, and my Real Estate Property Taxes for the year (which I pay both half's before the end of the year.

    So with that being said, the 5K I am holding for the long term account (which I bought prior to FB going public through an auction bid at I must admit was high $34 per share), which also come off lock-up in November 2012 -I do not plan to sell for at least 1 and maybe 5 years down the road.

    The other 50% that I "play with" in my short term trading account I bought in the low $18 range (around an average of $18.25 to $18.30 per share). Just like when I buy these shares, I sell at different levels when the stock goes above $20, and then when it got above $22, sold a little more aggressively. My plan is to have zero FB shares by the end of October or the first week in November (which I have a few more shares to sell).

    Then, when the expiration of the lock-up in November comes and when I see the stock drop and then stabilizes a little (by the way that is when I will get the 5K shares of my "Long Term" investment transferred to my regular account from the company that sold the pre-IPO shares to me), I will pick a new price of FB stock to buy at, and start this short term trading on FB all over again!

    I try not to be too greedy, so when I start making 15% return, I start to sell some shares, and by the time it gets to 20% return, I start to look at selling the rest. Then I watch the movement of the stock and try to pick a low and then a wait for the 15% to 20% gain (in that way, some short term trades do sometimes become a longer term trade). If the stock has too much bad news (I am talking about earnings or lack thereof and not perceived TSUNAMI news of "lock-up" expirations - yeah I know the stock will go down some for FB and I agree it will - but don't agree it will go down to $5 a share like some people on SA continue to preach it will [and I guess pray it will for their short positions]) I just get out of it completely.

    I do this with about 20 up to about 30 or so stocks. I don't like to play with puts and calls (even though there is more leverage with these and the fact that you can limit your losses too). I have done that game, and in the long run, I broke even or had a slight gain.

    This way if I am wrong, (which I admit I was wrong in buying FB Pre-IPO in August 2011 for $34 per share), I still have the stock and it is only a "PAPER LOSS" and not a "REAL LOSS" until I sell, and that is why the 5K shares will be in my "LONG TERM" trading account and not in my "SHORT TERM" trading account come November expiration.

    I know this is long and wordy, but I just find it amusing that when FB stock is going up or down, all these SA "Authors" come out an say FB will be at "$5 in a year and won't even exists in 5 years" because of this MASSIVE TSUNAMI of a +1 B share lock-up expiration! I still say I would rather see a 6% - 10% growth in Net Income from a company with $5 in cash for every share, and billions of shares outstanding, and over $4 billion in revenue, than a company without that cash, making 25% - 30% growth in Net Income, and just started breaking $100 M in revenue! Don't look at the percentages look at the $$$$$$'s!
    Oct 28 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Facebook Regain On Mobile Ads Momentum? [View article]
    tkcwu

    Go back and check you figures! Last year mobile users 240m?????
    Oct 25 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Still Too Early To Go Long Facebook [View article]
    heliskiier:

    "Reopened" your short position? I new you had a short position, but you don't talk about what you just lost $$ the other day. Yes, a short term short position would be good right after an 18% gain! But for sanity, you should get out of that position during the Novemebr lock-up pressure on the stock! After that, it will be earnings call after earning call that drives this stock down or UP!

    Be careful, don't be too greedy - as with this move, there might not be as many sellers as you think with the +1 billion shares - maybe just maybe they are willing to hold onto their stocks a little longer(?).
    Oct 25 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Still Too Early To Go Long Facebook [View article]
    Whitehawk:

    Do your research! Out of the 1 Billion (no dollar sign), how many does Mark have ... Find the answer to that question, then you will see a NEW number that you can take about (let's say for arguement sake) 50% will want to sell. Now what is your number? You see, just because +1 billion share come off lock-up, doesn't mean they all hit the market!
    Oct 25 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Facebook Down To $5: A Story Of Slashed EPS Estimates And Diminishing Visibility [View article]
    Tom:

    When will you say you were wrong on the $5.00 target for FB?

    Although the FB earnings report in my opinion was not good enough for the +20% move in the stock, I do believe that in upcoming reports that the Income and Earnings will support a higher value than it is today. And I do agree that the November lock-up expiration will have a negative influence on the stock price, but once the dust settles - long term investors (people that hold onto stock longer than when you should write another $5.00 target price of FB article) WILL get rewarded for buying the stock between $18 and $20 rather than selling the stock and waiting until it gets to $5.00.
    Oct 24 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Still Too Early To Go Long Facebook [View article]
    I love it when the SA Authors come out and BASH a stock like FB, then turn around and say another stock is "BETTER." Heck, I need to push another stock other than FB (besides I have LOVED FB and buy when it is close to $18 and sell when it is close to $22 - these number will change obviously)! Can I become an author for SA?

    To tell you the truth, I was wondering who else is NOT going to admit that they were "wrong" in their estimates about FB, and to tell (a one sided "scoop") how once again the "stock-armageddon" is just around the corner when the major lock-up ends around November 14th.

    Congratulations, you are the first! By the way do you even know what GAAP stands for, and why earning are reported NON-GAAP and GAAP? Maybe you should try to figure that out BEFORE you start trying to sell everybody what you just did - a one sided all in all lie!

    Gets some guts to admit that FB is further along monetizing mobile than you ever expected, that would have been a better start. By the way I do agree that when the November lock-up expiration comes that because of the SUPPLY and DEMAND issues, the stock will come down, but once those have been sold - you and other SA authors will have nothing but earning (GAAP or Non-GAAP) to support or attack!
    Oct 24 01:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook A Value Buy? Stock May Not Have Hit Bottom Yet [View article]
    Regal53

    What are you SHORT FB? What you say makes little or no sense! Half (at least half) of the companies in the world "PRODUCE" nothing, they are "SERVICE" companies!

    Your comments don't even require a response.

    I on the other hand was trying to get a point across to the author about REVENEUS versus NET INCOME - there is a difference.

    This is a company that was felt to be a "growth" company, but it has not produced the growth it was hyped up to do. So naturally the price will decline. And yes, I have also agreed with everybody who has pointed to the lock-up expirations (remarkably spelled out in the S-1 filing - oh that's right you don't read or understand - and MUST keep reminding yourself about them) and the price decline they will cause. We don't need a crystal ball to predict that (do we).

    Oct 18 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook A Value Buy? Stock May Not Have Hit Bottom Yet [View article]
    You should learn the difference between REVENUE and NET INCOME, before you write an article that mixes the two up!

    Your numbers need to be looked out before you scare people off from an INVESTMENT (in future earnings). Law suits, name me one large or medium size business that doesn't have a law suit!

    Now that FB is trading above $20 a share, I guess it's time for SA writers to start the UNQUALIFIED writings to scare any novice investor away.

    By the way the 2nd quarter BEAT expectations in Revenue, but fell short on the GROWTH side of expectations (FB not growing as fast as "some" investors would like). Earning fell short but they were earnings.

    Try to get your facts straight when FB reports 3 quarter!
    Oct 17 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
    I would LOVE ALL MY "BROKEN" companies to have profits like FB. Just because the FLIPPERs of IPO's didn't get their 30% return for holding onto FB stock for an hour or two ...

    And IM: What I basically said is IF YOU READ THE S-1 and the Amended S-1's, you would have ALREADY known when and how many shares come off lock-up each month. You would also have some idea of the MAJORITY STAKEHOLDERS of these shares. AND if you watch the SEC filings, you would know WHICH ones are selling!

    I am not saying that FB will not fluctuate in price (in fact I buy as close to $18 as I can, and sell when it gets above $20 to $22). So right now my trading portfolio has some long term FB stock (50% of the total FB stock I own at close to $18), and some "trading" shares of FB that I sell pieces of all the way to $22 (the other 50%).

    At each expiration, I hope to have zero left of the trading shares, then the day of the expiration (sometime during that day) I hope to be a buyer of FB stock to "trade" with. Then I do the same thing over again, until the next expiration. This month is a little different because FB is also expected to release the quarterly results - so that will also move the stock as well as the expiration of a few million shares. November is the BIG one, but almost half of those are owned (which you purposely AVOID saying) are owned by Mark Z. whom said he is not selling for at least a year!

    I am just wondering what you will have to write about FB after all the expirations of the lock-ups? Maybe you can give lessons to your readers about "How to read S-1 filings 101!"

    Nothing you have said in your article has not already be disclosed in the S-1 (and the amendments to the original S-1)!

    That was all I was trying to say. And no, I haven't lost a dime on FB stock. I have only profits by using articles by SA writers to BUY on the dips and sell on the upside! I have done this 4 times (on the last one before the November plan to be at 0 trading shares). As far as my long term 50%, with the profits I am pocketing, the average price is going down...
    Oct 17 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
    lot2

    You better go back to school and learn a little about stocks and MATH!
    674 million times roughly $19.50 is not $45 billion. The market prices in ALL shares lock-up or not! Just like earning per share is based on TOTAL stock not just FLOAT!

    Float is going up so instead of the speculation and growth (or lower growth [but still growth mind you]) FB will have a challenge of the law of supply and demand.
    Oct 17 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
    Boy, another SA author looking into his crystal ball to come up with these statistics, and then saying "The stock will go down as these expiration come." Get a life! This is NOT news, and you keep saying this (why?)! What you leave out (conveniently by the way) is that Mark has over 600 Million of these shares coming off restriction, which he states he is not going to sell for at least a year. That leaves a little over half left - for the employees to decide if and how many they are going to sell.

    Please also note: that if the holders of these stocks do not trade them, they will have the Class "B" shares that are worth 10 votes for each share. This may be one reason they do not sell! Although there will be some that sell to buy that house, car, or boat they wanted.

    I agree with you, that the stock price will go down, but it will also go back up once these stocks have been traded (supply and demand) and after this quarter and maybe next quarter releases. I do not agree with the "other" SA author (and I say that term kindly) that states it will be below $5 (which is about what they have in cash), but I also feel it will not be near the IPO price either ($38).

    It is a broken stock, not a broken company! It is looking for ways to generate revenues and thus income, and I would be careful to count them over and out (at least for now).
    Oct 16 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Flings Spaghetti As Lock-Up Expirations Approach [View article]
    MZ has over 600 Million of the over 1 Billion that are coming off lock-up in the next few months. Sure, some will sell to get some money to buy that over priced house in Menlo Park, but let just say that for argument sake, the other 600 Million (let's also round this off) sell, then those shorts will be hanging out there trying to BUY those shares to cover those shorts.

    No wonder every time the stock takes a breather SA writer get busy patting themselves on the back for being so brilliant and being the FIRST to tell everybody to watch out for the expiration of the lock-up stock and that will in and of itself drive down the stock to $14 or lower! Wow, I cannot wait until the big November 2012 lock-up expiration has passed just to see these guys eat crow!

    Yes everybody know thanks to these SA writers that more stock is being "UNLOCKED" - thanks for that news (the idiots that bought the stock without READING the S-1 filings didn't know that). My guess is the retail investor who bought the stock shortly after the IPO, thinking that it would take off and he/she could reap $$'s if not thousands of $$'s - yes the FLIPPERS that got BURNED and are crying to their lawyers - "it's not fair" - are the ones that didn't read the S-1, and these expiration of lock-ups are NEWS to them!

    So thanks SA, keep these articles coming - what will you write about after the last of the large lock-up expires? Maybe by then you will see that FB has taken stride to Increase the TOP line and BOTTOM line (Revenues and Net Profit for those that don't understand), and maybe (just maybe mind you) FB will turn around the trend of declining increases of both.

    Where were you hiding when FB went from $15 and change to $22 and change? Oh, your pen ran out of ink?
    Oct 5 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn: The Honeymoon Is Coming To An End [View article]
    Yeah. I am long FB at $18 and sell a few shares at around $22.50. Thise are my "trading" shares. I have Investment shares (Investment = holding for more than 1 year) at between $18.00 and $19.25 per share. Like I said holding onto those. I laugh when other SA writers say that FB will be at or below $5! They just don't understand the market AT ALL!

    LNKD should not be above the $100 per share mark, and like you said, it is a great SHORT above that mark. The only question is when will that growth s-l-o-o-o-o-w?

    GREAT ARTICLE. SA should seek out more of your articles!
    Oct 4 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Facebook Down To $5: A Story Of Slashed EPS Estimates And Diminishing Visibility [View article]
    raviunnam: First off, you keep bashing FB, why do you feel a company goes IPO for? Is it for the "FLIPPER" (somebody who buys the stock on the IPO just to sell it when it "pops"), or to raise CAPITAL so that it can pay off liabilities and operating capital, and to give LONG term investor an investment (more than a few hours) future gains? Why do you think FB "should have left money on the table for these "FLIPPERS."

    Secondly, you say "The true cost of building and running FB has to include the billions of shares ( due to successive rounds of dilutions and funding ) outstanding." I have news for you, the expiration(s) of lock-ups DOES NOT DILUTE, it only adds to the float! So then the law of supply and demand kicks in, more sellers than buyers - the stock price goes down, more buyers than sellers the stock price goes up.

    I don't say the stock price won't go down at each lock-up expiration, but as soon as those share (only the ones that are going to sell - and MZ said he isn't going to sell the 600 million he will have after lock-up) gets absorbed in the market place. Then earning per share (which includes float and lock-up shares) will drive the stock up and down.
    Oct 3 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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