Seeking Alpha

SMJTRUST

SMJTRUST
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View SMJTRUST's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • LinkedIn: The Honeymoon Is Coming To An End [View article]
    Yeah. I am long FB at $18 and sell a few shares at around $22.50. Thise are my "trading" shares. I have Investment shares (Investment = holding for more than 1 year) at between $18.00 and $19.25 per share. Like I said holding onto those. I laugh when other SA writers say that FB will be at or below $5! They just don't understand the market AT ALL!

    LNKD should not be above the $100 per share mark, and like you said, it is a great SHORT above that mark. The only question is when will that growth s-l-o-o-o-o-w?

    GREAT ARTICLE. SA should seek out more of your articles!
    Oct 4 02:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Facebook Down To $5: A Story Of Slashed EPS Estimates And Diminishing Visibility [View article]
    raviunnam: First off, you keep bashing FB, why do you feel a company goes IPO for? Is it for the "FLIPPER" (somebody who buys the stock on the IPO just to sell it when it "pops"), or to raise CAPITAL so that it can pay off liabilities and operating capital, and to give LONG term investor an investment (more than a few hours) future gains? Why do you think FB "should have left money on the table for these "FLIPPERS."

    Secondly, you say "The true cost of building and running FB has to include the billions of shares ( due to successive rounds of dilutions and funding ) outstanding." I have news for you, the expiration(s) of lock-ups DOES NOT DILUTE, it only adds to the float! So then the law of supply and demand kicks in, more sellers than buyers - the stock price goes down, more buyers than sellers the stock price goes up.

    I don't say the stock price won't go down at each lock-up expiration, but as soon as those share (only the ones that are going to sell - and MZ said he isn't going to sell the 600 million he will have after lock-up) gets absorbed in the market place. Then earning per share (which includes float and lock-up shares) will drive the stock up and down.
    Oct 3 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Faces Tough Challenges Ahead [View article]
    heliskiier: First off, I did (and don't) report you or anybody. Second, you are really smart! FB is not "iisuing" a billion (or more) shares at $20.00 after they selling the same at $38-$45. GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT BEFORE (YES BEFORE) you put your foot in your mouth!

    FB sold shares at $38.00 at the IPO (along with a lot of early investors) not $38-$45, the retail clients once it went IPO bought and sold shares after all the shares offered at $38.00 were sold! In fact, shares were sold all the way down to the low around $17.55.

    They are not issuing MORE shares, these shares you are talking about come off "restriction" and can be held (as class B shares - 10 votes per share) or converted to class A shares (one share - one vote) and sold. I don't thinkanybody who hold will convert to class A until they are ready to sell. These shares are already "sold" on paper to early investors and employees (options), and are ALREADY calculated in the Revenue and Earning per share calculations.

    All I am saying is that just becuase FB earnings and revenue growth is declining, DOOM SAYERS are not giving FB thebenefit of the doubt, that management can or will want to reverse that trend. I am not saying that the stock should be at $20 - $45, or $5. What I say is until early next year (or at least until after the major expiration in November and tax selling in December 2012) saying it will go to $5 a share without ANY DATA (earning - losses), is like saying it will be $100 - just as good - MEANINGLESS.

    Good luck with your shorts! I get LONG at $18 or so, and when it gets to $22.50 I will start selling a few shares. Buy low sell HIGH, and don't be greedy! That is my advise. I will keep a lot of the stock I bought at $18 as a LONG TERM INVESTMENT, but trade a few thousand shares (buying at $18 and selling above $22) a 25% gain (before taxes).

    I think that strategy is better than selling short at $21, then finding out they are mastering monitizing mobile, or the people are giving them credit card information, and trying to wait to see the stock hit $15.75 to get that same 25% return!
    Oct 1 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Faces Tough Challenges Ahead [View article]
    You are so full of yourself! I noticed you (and the other FB bashers) get your article published whenever the stock has some positive upward movement. By now EVERYBODY knows of the over 1 billion shares coming off of lock up in November. NOT EVERY ONE OF THOSE SHARES IS GOING TO HIT THE MARKET AS SELLS! Yes, there will be a number that want or need to sell, and that will lower the stock price. But you are "GUESSING" and making BIG ASSUMTIONS that FB revnue growth will be DECLINING and continue to decline! Wow, can I look into your crystal ball!

    Why not wait a few more weeks to see what the revenue will be?

    Oh, I get it, you want the stock to decline, so that the shorts can profit - oops - this article is probably what is causing FB to be up 7.85% to +1.59 to $21.91!

    I am not saying that at $22.00 a share is a reasonable price based on revenue and earnings, but the scare tactics you and the other Seeking Alpha ought to get together and get your crystal balls checked out!

    FB will never go to $5.00 a share, and follow the footsteps of other social media firms that have gone away (My Space) ...
    Sep 28 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does Facebook Compare To Its Competitors? [View article]
    I just have one comment, would you rather have 32% growth of $4+ billion income (and profit margin of 13+%) or 80% of $0.724 billion income (and only 1.8% profit margin)? Boy is this article terrible! By the way when Linkedin start making 4 billion in revenue I doubt that it will be still growing at 80%! Get real and start using some MEANINGFUL comparison.
    Sep 12 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Search Engine: The Death Of Google? [View article]
    There is always room for competition. It is just another way FB can earn some more revenue! More revenue, less some expenses, equal net income! What a concept. Let's keep knocking Mark Z, because now he concerned about the stock price and stock holders of the company and not so much interested in getting more users (what he is now interested in Revenue/Expenses/Profits? What have we do? We've turned him into being a business man/ a CEO). To me he is (and will be) a Bill Gates and /or Steve Jobs, but let's hope he learned from all his and their mistakes!
    Sep 12 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Come Off The Sugar High: Go Against The Grain On Facebook [View article]
    Merik:

    I think you have to see the interview again. Look, a CEo cannot show you his hand, but Mark did talk about what FB is doing, and what direction it is g(r)o(w)ing!

    Get real! Lets see how they do after they report earning (a few more quarters will do), and after the last of the expiration of lock-ups (which even I think the stock will go down - but eventually will recover).

    Good luck on your prediction. But sooner then later even you MUST look at numbers (not just PE)! Is LNKD in OVERPRICE just because the have a PE over 1,000(!)? I think so, but it is still trading over $117 per share?
    Sep 12 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Shares Highly Susceptible To Reaching $10 [View article]
    Samuel:

    Two grossly misleading pieces of information and one piece of information totally wrong! First the wrong piece of information, Companies go IPO to RAISE capital, not to make the people who buy the stock at the IPO rich (when all they want to do is turn over the stock - commonly known as FLIPPERS). FB went public for a number of reasons, to raise money (which it did VERY well) and two MZ had a $1 Billion tax bill he needed to pay.

    The two pieces of misleading information is you show the declining increase in USERS to 5% then you correlate that with earnings and say because the user base in not increasing at the fast rate as in prior years advertisers will spend less? Where do you get that?

    The second misleading piece of information is when you became the Judge and Jury about the "allegations" that the underwriters disseminated information to some investor and not others about the revenue and income growth projections being lower - well I hate to be the one that give you the news but it is in the S-1 and S-1A's that came out, on top of which that is the way Wall Street NORMALLY does business!

    First off, the INVESTORS with the most invested in the company get the news, and then it trickles down to the investor that has 100 shares and less to lose. That does NOT "automatically violates Regulation Fair Disclosure."

    The stock may go down because of the lock-ups, but you should check your numbers again, as they have over $10 Billion in cash, and their ad revenue is coming in at over $1 Million a day!

    The growth will not be 30%, but who cares, they are profitable, and they are growing! Soon after the lock-up expirations you won't have anything to say, the law of supply and demand will settle the price (and a decent P/E ratio). Remember too, that earnings are based on the over 2 billion shares not just the float!
    Sep 6 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Zuckerberg Not Selling For A Year - A Red Herring [View article]
    Tom:

    I think you should write about something you know about! First off 34 of 35 "Qualified" analysts look at the numbers - earnings, revenues, and number of shares! FB is a profitable company (OK it does have over 2 billion shares) but the earnings per share is based on the number of shares outstanding (NOT JUST THE FLOAT)! They also say it is a buy not because of the earnings today, but the earnings (or potential earnings) of a year or two away! They are saying buy now not for the person who wants to make a quick buck, but for the "INVESTOR" the person you know or care nothing about when you write an ignorant article!

    You don't like looking at the facts do you? You just like commenting to get feedback - I laugh at all the people the follow and drink the same Cool aide you drink. Of course the stock will have it's ups and down. Of course this was a MASTERFUL IPO for FB (they went IPO to raise the most money it could for the EARLY investors [payback is a B****] and FB itself). Mark has always said he was going to sell enough shares to pay his tax bill - he did - why should he sell more - just because you say it is going down to $5.00 a share?

    You are playing in the hands of the short sellers and the puts "players." Once the float is out, and the stock settles around $10 - $18 you will of course change your tune, because by then those that wanted to sell (for tax reasons or to buy a house for cash) would have sold, then the true investors will come in and start buying the stock, and guess what, they will buy the stock because the company is finding new ways to generate Revenues, and income, and soon all the courts will (and lawyers) will start to act on and throw out the law suits (that every large company has by the way).

    Then the price will be based on fundamentals and of course the law of supply and demand! The stock is broken not the company, you should start looking into the facts not just take a number out of your A**, try using your brain if you have one.

    I am glad you make money on the articles you write, because the more you encourage all your followers to sell until it gets down to your $5.00 target price, the more all your followers will blindly go, and if they borrow the shares to sell, I would love to see their faces and pocket books when all the float is finally available, and none of (us) want to sell ---!
    Sep 5 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Analyst Downgrades: Do We Care? Are Any Analysts Now Credible? [View article]
    MARCAP - investors are not the ones selling at this time (after all if they invested any money after the IPO, they have lost). An investor is NOT one that reads scare tatics articles like what Tom writes with NO back up to his $5.00 price (which is really $3.00 right now because FB has $2.00 per share in CASH)!

    Investors hold onto a stock of a company, and wait for all the day traders to lose, all the shorts have to cover, and wait for the new IPO to show that it's business plan will indeed proove the "writers" (which after reading all of Tom's articles about FB, I have decided Tom is just a "Con"-trarian) wrong over the "LONG PERIOD" of time (more than 1 or 2 quarters)!

    I would love to see what Tom's price target is when FB reports its quarters in two years! If he would have written the same articles about YAHOO, he would have been eating his words (as Yahoo went down after its IPO then turned around and the rest is history at least up until Google came around).

    So I will look to read his articles about FB in 2 years and would LOVE to see him eat his words about a $5.00 FB stock price (with or without Mark Z)! Until then ...
    Sep 3 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Target Price Is $5, But More If Zuckerberg Quits [View article]
    Tom:

    Read the last quarter release ... that is where you will see the Revenues increasing, and earnings increasing! A one time charge brought the earning to a loss, but overall they were both increases from prior quarters! Just because both didn't increase more than what you or others thought, the stock sold off. This at least I understand and at least I look at the numbers! To say FB will get to $5 a share when it already has $2.00 a share in cash shows that you are ignorant to say the least, and just want to say something just to cause panic, after all you get "published."

    It kinda causes me to wonder why you get published at all - and all except one analysts still has buy rating n FB with better than a $25 target price?

    All I am saying is you need to look at the revenue stream and earning stream of a company before you make a FOOL of yourself and everybody who thinks you are right. You may cause some people to short a stock and wait until it gets to $5.00 to cover, and you could and will be wrong, and they will lose a lot of money when they go to cover (after December 2012).
    Sep 3 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Target Price Is $5, But More If Zuckerberg Quits [View article]
    All of you forget one important thing, why most publicly traded firms go public! Most go to raise capital, grow, etc., not to pay taxes because of the gain in value for the insiders that have a piece of the pie! In this case (FB) went public, NOT to make money for the SPECULATORS, but for the INVESTORS. Most investors that sold at the IPO and the lock-up expiration in August (October, November, and ...) have had their shares for a number of years. FB went public at $38 and had raised it to that to make sure it (the company) got the extra $1 billion in their pocket rather than the speculators. The shorts loved the hype, and when the dust settled, and there are more sellers than buyers, WOW the stock went down to a reasonable forward looking PE. It's not at $5 or $7.50 is it. Soon the shorts will have to start covering (I expect sometime after the November lock-up expiration), and there will be more buyers than sellers - then where will the price go?

    All that said and done, Mark and FB did a great job getting the most out of the speculators (those that buy or sell a stock over a SHORT period of time). The investors (those that buy and hold onto stock for more than that short period of time) will be rewarded as FB gets more and more CASH, more and more REVENUE, and more and more PROFITS. Those that don't expect it overnight, will be rewarded when the BASHERS of FB realize that what they write and say about FB will NOT scare enough INVESTORS to bring the stock down to $7.50 or $5.00!

    Earnings per share is on the raise (remember too that the lock-up expirations do not effect these - just the float), and except for one time charges FB has had earnings, yes even through this bad economy! So my advise (from somebody who bought YAHOO on it's first day IPO and sold it about 15 months later for a small 18% gain after taxes - and would be a millionaire today if I had held onto it) is to buy at the dips, a little here and a little there, and hold onto it for an INVESTMENT - you won't see $5.00 nor $7.50 but you may see $40.00 when the economy turns, and when FB starts motorizing better as they mature!
    Aug 28 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 12 Reasons To Keep Ignoring Facebook's Friend Request (Part 1) [View article]
    Lou and Homer:

    What you both forget is that FB is PROFITABLE! These profit per share is based on TOTAL SHARES not just "FLOAT" shares. All these "investors" have been on board for YEARS not days. So, the real "INVESTORS" that want to make money, as FB matures and learns how to monetorize mobility markets, will pick a point and BUY for INVESTMENT (more than a day or two), and will reap better than the shorts and the SCARE tactics used by you and others about the expiration of lock-ups! NOT everybody will sell at these level when those lock-ups expire, and the stock will be available for all those who have borrowed for their short positions. Markets turn, and there are just as many reasons (12) to BUY the stock and hold onto as an INVESTMENT versus trying to PLAY the market!
    Aug 22 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Social Boom Busted But Facebook Looks Beyond [View article]
    This is without a doubt the BEST article I have read about FB and LNKD! However, I would just like to add one small detail, Yahoo. I bought 1,200 shares when it first went public (yes above the IPO price). Then I bought another 1,000 shares a month or two later when it was below the IPO price. I sold all shares about a year later with an after tax profit of 18%. If I had held onto the stock (split after split after split), I would have been a multi-millionaire. I agree with LNKD OVERVALUED, and FB, well this is a mature company that has gone public - if they use the resources they have to monetize the mobile market - FB holders will be richer. This will not be "instant" gratification, but it will be gratification in the end!

    Yes, I do own shares of FB, and plan to hold onto them for a long period of time!
    Jul 27 03:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook An Emperor Not Wearing Any Clothes? [View article]
    You and everybody else forget that 10% growth when you are talking about 1 billion and that would have to be 100% growth for 100,000,000!
    Jul 2 11:11 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
60 Comments
73 Likes