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SMJTRUST

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  • Analyzing Apple's Expected Cash Dividend Increase In April [View article]
    How did you arrive at your 5% drop?
    Mar 26, 2015. 04:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Debunking The Recent Cowen Survey [View article]
    Mr Blair: Funny you should take offense to the way Cowen presented its findings ...Cowen remind me of how YOU write your articles to "PROOVE" your "BIAS" opinion of Apple. You see, you and Cowen did "LIE" out right in your articles, but you both used "MEANINGLESS" percentages to twist the so called fact that you are pointing out.

    Needless to say "ALMOST NOBODY" reads your articles and agrees with your points, but it does make us realize that as soon as Apples "FAIR VALUE" is hit, the "Trading" game is over. Like Jim Crammer says, stop "Trading" Apple, but he does say you should own this "Great" company!

    I am an investor - long term, you are (on the other hand) a "trader" or short sighted, trying hard to make your prayers heard. Your idea that MSFT will out-perform Apple is one of the prayers, while being long BBRY and short AAPL is another prayer you have be holding onto.

    Someday you too will learn that maybe it is not important for a company to have the highest market share, but more important to have top and bottom line that will almost guarantee the future of a company (I will take Apples over ANY "Android" company). Please keep making us rich... Oh and Thank you for the last two years you have lined my pockets.
    Mar 25, 2015. 07:18 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fault In Apple's Star [View article]
    I remember reading that the iPhone 6 and 6+ will cost the consumer MORE not less than the iPhone 5's...

    Right now with that increase, Apple is GAINING market share (Cowen's report today)!

    So, is it necessary for Apple to concentrate it's efforts on iAd? NO! Will that non-effort from Apple hurt iPhone sales, not yet!

    Will iPhone sales start to level off or decline ... maybe ... but not now. Let's all ride Apple stock for as long as we can, I am very long Apple, and thanks to articles from SA like this one, and MB's I have made lot's of $$$ enough that I have to pay Uncle Sam and the great State of California together almost $25k :(
    and I consider myself very lucky to do that and still have plenty of Apple left for this year (I have January 2016 calls and January 2017 calls).

    I can just picture the loss carry forward MB has ...

    But I am looking for a price level of 175 this year and only 220 next to get out. I converted 5 calls (500 shares at $70) this past January, and plan to call 5 contracts more in January 2016 (at 95.71 - split price), and 5 more in Janaury 2017 (at $105).

    By then I will have 1500 shares of Apple for an "investment" not trade account! I buy enough of the calls that when I sell all but 5, I have enough cash to pay for the ones I call and the tax.

    Yes, there will come a day that Apple will be "Fairly" valued, and a day when it will not be a volatile that it has been (the trick is to sell at the highs and buy back when it drop close to that "magic" 10% drop). When that day comes, I hope my call positions will be closed out, and my investment will be left at built in profits!

    Apple is a Great Company (overall), a Good investment (value is more than the trading price of today), and yes ONE DAY, we can all look back and say "the SA articles like this one and the many (too) many Michael Blair writes were right - the stock should come down and did!" But that day is a LONG way away from where the stock is trading today.

    Thank you SA, MB, and more importantly Apple and All of Apple employees for making it happen!

    PS. I own two iPads (Air models the first and 2nd) and Apple TV that's it! So I have only been an Apple owner for two Christmas and a little, but an Apple Options trader for almost 3 GREAT years!
    Mar 23, 2015. 07:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Dirty Little Rare Earth Secret [View article]
    The author quotes "Investors interested in this issue and China's REE industry more generally are encouraged to read Cindy Hurst's 2010 China's Rare Earth Elements Industry: What Can The West Learn?" I would believe that there have bee advancements since "Cindy Hurst's 2010 article." But yes, let's "blame" Apple for all of it's suppliers legal or illegal activities, it makes things so much easier than to go after them...

    I guess TRER is not moving fast enough for the author.
    Feb 19, 2015. 06:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Pride Comes Before A Fall [View article]
    THis is the same SA writer that said Microsoft will out perform Apple. This is the same person that is LONG Blackberry. This is the same person who has lined my poket with his money (and others I am sure - depending how long he has been shorting Apple). For me, I still have 15 calls @ 95.71 and 20 calls @ 100 for January 2016, and 10 calls at 105 for January 2017! I did call my 5 calls @ 70 for January 2015 (paid for in full from my profits in the past playing with the Apple calls - MB money)!

    I must say, almost every time you write an article the stock gets higher and higher. I notice though, you are hedging a little, you use to say wait until next quarter. Now your going out two quarter to a year ...

    Yes, eventually the stock will come down, but you won't see it much below these levels for a long long long time. By the way MB, why do you invest in companies (such as Blackberry) that show loss after loss after loss quarter after quarter, when you can invest (hold longer than a few months)...

    Thanks for the money Mr. Blair!
    Feb 13, 2015. 07:59 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: More Data On The iOS/Android Struggle [View article]
    Paulo:

    I love how you try to make the statistics (using percents) for Google Play (2.5 times or growth at 250%) versus iTunes (35% growth). However in three years (assuming the same growth for both) iTunes will still be over 3 billion dollars ahead of Google Play! You and MB and others that use these percent growth and compare just on percent need to look at the numbers themselves (Top line and Bottom line) ... we investors are not as DUMB as you and MB think we are.

    By always saying there is an end to this great ride we are on with Apple, you need to re-think and look at what Apple is doing for "Future" growth when the slow down you predict actually takes hold - why do you think Apple didn't come out with the iWatch or iPay - and why it is Apple Watch and Apple Pay? Because the "i" producrts are slowly going away and the Apple Everything is coming! Apple is as aware to a "Future" slowing of the "i" products - and the "Future" growth of the "Apple" pruducts!

    Wow, I am glad I am long (with call options at 95.71, 100 for January 2016, and 105 for January 2017). I am taking MB money and running! Thank you MB, please stay short Apple and Long BBRY - I will leave some food on the table in late 2016 for you to come by and tell me how right you were but it's just going to be a little long....
    Jan 31, 2015. 05:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Bet Is That Microsoft Will Outperform Apple In 2015 [View article]
    My bet is that APPL shareholders will out perform MB just like the last two years!

    I did!
    Jan 7, 2015. 04:49 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Analysis: Free Versus Levered Free Cash Flow [View article]
    They bought stock and then had a 7 for 1 split...

    Also most analysts I talk with will go back and restat earning per share as if the stock purchased was done in the year you are comparing results...

    Also, if past performance is "relevant" to future performance then there would be no real skill in picking stocks with future growth...

    I would much rather buy stock in a company that the future is more important to than the past (learn from past mistakes) ... Then a company who always points to how well they did in the past...

    But who am I to say? I am just one little old "investor" in Apple, that because of Apple alone (and my timing on buying LEAPs and selling them too), I have been the number 1 gainer in my local MS office for two years in a row. I have 2016 calls, and 2017 calls to make it 3 years in a row, and in January of 2015 will call 5 $70 call contracts before they expire, and before ex-dividend, so I will have Apple stock along with my other stock holdings!
    Dec 21, 2014. 12:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Eat Your Apple Pie [View article]
    Mr. Blair:

    Two things, one is when an analyst has to stoop to using percentages to get his point across you know that it is not worth the paper (or internet) it is written on.

    Second is where you and investors differ is Investors have made profits and you have only losses on APPL, (and losses on BBRY).

    What you need to do is realize that Apple Management realizes that it cannot depend on the "i" products to drive revenues and profits, and thus they are introducing the "Apple" Products (Pay and Watches, etc.) to help drive future revenues and profits.

    But thanks for the vote of confidence for this quarters results. I cannot wait for the next couple of quarters results to come and here you say "again" - "Apple beat your expectations but what next" - or as it was put in a story once "the sky is falling - the sky is falling."

    Thanks for making me one of the biggest gainers in my brokerage office for the second year in a row (mostly AAPL)!

    Keep staying short AAPL, and do let us know when you change your position so we can know where the top is!
    Dec 15, 2014. 03:29 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The iPhone 6 May Have A Longer Upgrade Cycle - If So, Expect Unit Sales To Fall [View article]
    Mr Blair:

    Thank you for the "Article of meaningless garbage!" No company (except your beloved Blackberry, stands still in this market. Why do you (except for the reason you are short the stock and losing your shirt - and much more), would you write an article completely ignoring the new markets Apple is getting itself into (the Apple Watch and Apple Pay just being two of them). Why do you think Apple is calling these two new venture "Apple" rather than "i"? Why do you think Apple can afford to buy back stock, increase spending in R&D ... Do you think that Apple doesn't see that the "Better they make the i-Phone" the longer people will wait to upgrade to the next model? You didn't even do any research to find out that even though the smart phone market is declining, that Apple share is now growing! Keep your LONG position in BBRY and stay SHORT AAPL - that will make the rest of us rich!

    I love your articles when the point out all the things Apple is doing "right" and then you spoil it by saying - it won't last forever ... but is your short position five or ten years out?

    The investors of Apple thank you for putting all your money on the wrong side, we gladly take your money (for the next 5-10 years)! :)
    Dec 3, 2014. 11:44 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record iPhone Shipments May Not Mean Market Share Gains [View article]
    Michael, for a minute I was worried, as I didn't see an article from you pointing out Apples strong points and turning them around with your negative twist. Maybe you didn't read the following from a news article on Samsung:

    "Samsung reported its worst
    quarterly operating profit in more than three years. Earnings
    from its handset division slumped 73.9 percent from a year
    earlier."

    Even though I don't think Samsung is in the same league as Apple, I would much rather invest in a company that Net Income is growing (I guess you feel the opposite)!

    I won't even discuss the "Long" position you have with BBRY!

    I had suggested that you get out of your BBRY while you had a chance and switch your position with AAPL! You didn't and now I am sitting pretty with 5 Jan 15 calls at 70, 20 Jan 16 calls at 95.71, and 20 Jan 16 calls at 100!

    I will join you on the short side when Apple reaches $200, unless they keep the momentum in revenues and earnings going!

    For every "winner" on Wall Street, there is a "loser".
    Oct 31, 2014. 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Additional Upside Isn't Obvious [View article]
    This article is from somebody who is LONG BBRY :)

    I suppose we should listen to him - as he ride BBRY from the high to the low ...

    I stopped reading the articles and enjoyed the conversation after the article ...

    I would much rather be LONG AAPL then LONG BBRY this earning season (I would much rather own the stock of a profitable company than a copmany that will have a loss).

    But then again, maybe I should be long BBRY, after all it's less than $10 a share...but my broker says the closer a stock is to $0.00 the sooner it will get there!

    I think Mr. Blair and you have the right idea but the wrong stock!
    Oct 9, 2014. 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Leaving Everything To Be Desired [View article]
    Thank Anelemma (aka Mrs. Blair). You can keep enjoying be short Apple with Mr. Blair who has lost over $1 million! I advised Mr. Blair and you collect on days like the other day when Apple went down 4%, because the closer we get to reporting this quarter and Quarter 4, the closer Apple will be to $120 versus below $100!

    By the way, even though I do not have an iPhone, I do think Apple Pay will generate top line growth and almost all of it will flow down to the bottom line, after all my credit has been compromised twice in 3 years (not costing me anything but getting a new card).

    When my Samsung Galaxy 5 reaches the end, Apple Pay just might make me buy the Apple iPhone 6 Plus! This is from somebody who has stuck by Motorola for years and now has a Samsung (both phone I had [and have] problems hearing others and others hearing me)!

    When Mr. Blair and you look at your Cartier watches to see what your pulse is, or to figure out how many calories you burned, or get an important message from a loved one and realized - you should have had an Apple Watch (taken fro I should have had a V-8) well you get my drift.

    Please keep doing what you are doing in the market, BUY Blackberry and sell Apple, that way us Long Apple can take more of your money.
    Sep 26, 2014. 05:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Will Post A Strong Finish To 2014 - The Real Test Will Be Fiscal Q1 [View article]
    I may be stupid, but you use statistics in a way to "benefit" your argument. Comparing Apples 10 Million sold over a weekend to 60,000 sold in 5.2 seconds! Well, take the total hours that customers could actually buy the iPhone 6 and divide that into the 10 million, then compare Mr. Blair! On every dip like this, I buy more of the calls for 2016 and will be taking my profits to the bank. How long will it take you to get even from the over $1 million of losses you have had with Apple. Hint, you better make your money fast on Blackberry (and get out), before you ride that down to bankruptcy! Also, short term memory - when Apple fixes the IOS problem and report earnings, you better be out of your short position(s), then you can get back in at a higher strike price! That is the way the game is played.
    Sep 25, 2014. 10:24 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Demand Explained By Thorstein Veblen [View article]
    Mr. Blair, OMG, I am going to have to lower my sales estimates for the iPhone 6, and the Apple Watch, by one! So I am thinking I may go short Apple - yeah, when it gets to $175.00 a share or a PE ratio of 25! Also, you are right, you will be the ONLY person on earth that will not use Apple Pay - because by the time you decide that you have be WRONG on Apple, you will have lost all your investment money, and won't be able to qualify for credit!

    Please keep going short Apple, but do us all a favor, let us know when you change your mind, and want to go long!

    You say you are short but never give specifics...

    I am long, 20 Calls for 95.71,20 Calls for100 for Jan 2016,and 5 Calls (left) for 70.00 Jan 2015!

    I can and don't believe anybody can be so Stupid and Stubborn and keep being short Apple! I think you have made a little (because of the volatility of Apple) lately, but I do believe you have lost a lot of money using your own advice.

    Thanks for Your money. I will use it to buy Apple products!
    Sep 16, 2014. 12:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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