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  • Will Facebook Regain On Mobile Ads Momentum? [View article]
    heliskiier:

    So much for "houses money!" I suppose you had the $20 puts (or in some blogs you write $21?), and if you didn't sell ... did you look at FB stock this morning? What is happened? This even shocked me and I am long (for a long time to come).
    Nov 14 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Face It, Facebook's Growth Is Decelerating [View article]
    What happen to the first lock-up expiration that idkmybffjill said "insiders/VC's will be selling shares at numbers with a couple more 0's than (mine) yours:)"? Over 200 M shares were NOT traded the other day when over 200 M shares had the lock-up restriction expire. In fact the volume was around 100 M! In fact the 3 months average volume is around 52.5 M. So let see, over 200 M shares (and I am rounding so we can all do the math) come off lock-up, and the volume goes from 50 M to 100 M, and the stock goes down less than $1.00, what will that equate to when the (rounded [up] again) 800 M shares lock-up expires on November 14? What is 25% of 800 M, oh yes, that is 200 M.

    Yes all of you are right! FB stock will go down, yes more than a $1, so your Dec. 12 puts, out of the money or not, will look good! I have never debated that FACT.

    What I am saying is that SA Author Tim, who says within a year FB will be at $5, and in the same article he states that he doesn't even consider FB financial's (almost $5 per share when he wrote the article) or that it will be around ... is pure BS!

    When this "TSUNAMI" of lock-up expirations is finally over, and then you and the others have to look at the financial's of FB, and then place your "BETS" on the short side again, what happens when those flat earnings take off (when they get "better" - as last quarter was the first signs of life with mobility - to monetize the mobile market)? What new story (which by the way was not new - the expirations of lock-up with the number of shares was in the S-1 and amendments) will you come up with.

    I agree the after earnings move was based on emotions, and even shocked me (and I am long [long term long - which means more than a year for me anyway]), because I see the progress that FB has made as a "mature" new company, and I am on the opposite side from you and lock at the positives for "long - term" - !

    Even if they only take 1/8th of GOOG (which I own too) mobility market share, that would be $1 Billion - and that market is GROWING!

    Hey if my little 5K share mentality is like that, do you think the employees/VC's are going to take their 800 M shares to the market now?

    That is all I am saying. It's not going to be 800 M shares all in one or two days, it will be a lot, but just maybe they see a "future" growth of mobility and think FB can monetize and capture "some" of that market - just maybe. I made that bet, and I am a long term holder. My time value of money is pretty low (with interest rates being so low), I feel in that long run, I will reap more benefits rather than having cash. Did I buy too high - yes! But hind sight is 100% better.

    All I have said, is after these lock-ups to short (with options that expire) might not be a good idea to preach (unless the volatility remain)?
    Nov 1 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Face It, Facebook's Growth Is Decelerating [View article]
    If you "sold" your NOV for profits, I don't believe you! First of as the third week of NOV gets closer the "time" value built in the PUT starts to go down. Second the stock had a run - that means you only sol them when the stock drops (like today's expiration). If you bought "out of the money" and it is still "out of the money" you lost in time and gained a few cents on these declines?

    Secondly, 15 times earnings? where did you come up with that figure? What will you do after November 14? Yes I agree with you that FB will go down, my guess is that it will go down at least twice as much as the decline today (right now just under $1). So $21 - $2 is $19 in my math book. Only 42 M have traded, what and where is the other 200 M you are saying is the first TSUNAMI?

    So I don't get hurt (except paper losses on my FB) unless I sell. Meanwhile if you don't do anything and the market turn (like when they released earning) you have a paper loss until you sell or they EXPIRE!

    By the way you never buy an IPO - it's "gambling" what are you doing in the market? The market is a gamble.

    Right now, thanks to all the SA authors and the "heard of followers" (like you) I am able to "Trade" a portion of my portfolio in FB stock (and buy below $19 and sell above $21) and made enough money doing that to get my average price down to $22.35 (roughly). I figure with the "TSUNAMI" coming, I will stay out, until I see roughly 500 M shares trade. That way I am pretty confident that those who want to sell after the 11-14-12 expiration, have sold, and the market in FB will once again turn from supply demand pressures, to FB growth (or lack of), and when they get added to lets say NASDAQ 100 (if that happens), and ...

    I think I can do this once or twice more, then I will hold my long term investment, and FB will no longer be the "volatile" stock and won't have these swings. You remind me of Crammer! He loves a stock, all his followers buy (driving the stock price higher), then he hates the stock and his followers sells (driving the stock price down). In some case holding is better than buying, then selling, then buying back (or vice-a-versa). Take Goog (which I bought for around an average price of $82.50 when they went IPO, do you think I was hurt when it fell below $80 at time during my holding period, or do you think I was a little bit happy selling at $500+ (most of my shares)? The whole market is a gamble!

    You are just betting on a sure thing right now, FB is going to go down around 11-14-12 but to what level? By the way you have the Dec 12's at what strike price? What did you pay for them? Last question - after you sell them back - you can tell me at what price?

    You may have more leverage, but my stock never expires!
    Oct 31 10:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Face It, Facebook's Growth Is Decelerating [View article]
    You're wrong about IPO's. I have made ton's of money on IPO's, This is the first time I bought a PRE IPO. Lucky for me I was only a couple hundred thousand, which got me +5K shares of FB at $34.00 plus costs per share. So this PRE IPO is a gamble. I have also bought at IPO issue price FSLR (sold almost all in the $90.00 range GREAT RETURN), F, GM (not so good), LNKD (sold all at +$65 a share profit - that is right per share) and too many others to just spell out here. I bought the FB PRE IPO for my IRA, which I hold 25% dividend paying stocks, 50% in stable companies (large and small that move + or - less than 10% in a year), and some speculative stocks such as FB.

    So NEVER buy an IPO? I say buy an IPO, but make sure that the price you pay isn't all the premium that can be taken by the company you are buying (like FB). I did my research, and if you were in the PRE IPO market, you would have know that it went as high as +$44.10 per share (PRE IPO which went out at $38)!

    So, the crybabies that bought the IPO price or more to just turn and sell (like I did with LNKD even though I held onto it until it got over $100 per share) the what is commonly know as "FLIPPERS" and not Investors, got hurt by FB get the $$'s the Flippers usually get with a stock. Everybody "Blames" FB (oh and the NASDAQ) for the hype, but they should look at the Broker Dealers and "Analysts" that didn't discourage their clients from buying. FB looked bad because they got premium $$'s (sitting in cash and securities now on their balance sheet), while the Flippers, and the day traders got hurt.

    To me a paper loss of about $65+K, is just that, a paper loss. I still think FB within my time frame will hit $42.50 a share or a +25% return on my $34 WELL BEFORE it will hit $5! I think the market and the people who got in at the high's thought it was a "Growth" company, but it has shown that it is a Matured company but willing and able to drop non-profitable portions (or declining in revenues and profit portions) of its business plans to concentrate on areas it neglected before (Mobile).

    Mobile is growing, so while one area of the company is declining, another area is opening and growing (which will take some of the business away from GOOGLE - which is another IPO that I still own a smaller position in, and YAHOO which I own none now but bought at IPO - had a losing position for over a year, then split after split after split on 2,200 initial shares made my millions - yes millions in 5 years).

    So keep bashing FB like I said before, I really don't mind, but I hate when the SA authors act like it is their big secret that the stock will go down when each of these lock-ups expire. I just don't like to see somebody read that information, call their broker, sell short, and then wait too long to cover!

    Because once the sellers that want to sell these stock sell them, the selling and buying will be more stable (unless there is Bad or Good news that is leaked). This is when I will stop my "Trading" portion of FB, and hold onto the Investments 5+K shares for the 3 or 4 years (notice not as long as YAHOO) to make my millions!

    So, puts (because you like playing the down side, and have time constraints) go ahead an play. But my suggestion when the last lock-up expiration passes, cover yourself with calls too (I don't know how to spell it because I have never done it - strattles or strattels).

    Never buy an IPO, never get lucky like I was with YAHOO! But I made my millions off them, I can afford a paper loss or for that matter, if I decide to sell when November 14 comes (they are offering me 5 free trades per month if I decide to sell them) - but I'm not. So there are at least 5+K you can count out of the 777 Million on November 14 that will not be traded!

    Smile ...
    Oct 29 07:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hurricane Sandy And Nasdaq Closure Interferes With Post-IPO Facebook Stock Lockup [View article]
    With the market closure, we have to get at least 2 to a dozen or more articles about how FB stock WILL fall to $XX.XX or like Tim states in his article $5.00 a share because of the expirations of lock-ups are coming!

    I think INVESTORS already know this! When will these articles stop the regurgitation about the fact that there are share lock-up expirations? EVERYBODY knows that there will be a slight decline or a large decline in FB stock price BECAUSE of them! We don't need a crystal ball to say that.

    The best question is "How LONG will it take and at WHAT price will it be at for market absorption?" When will there be enough buyers, rather than too many sellers? Or maybe with all these articles, along with the perceived better than expected results of FB, have made those would have been sellers into "holders" of the shares (after all, if they think the others are going to jump off and sell right away - they may want to hold on a little longer for the better price - not to mention that the shares they currently have now have 10 votes for each share versus the 1 vote per share that the traded shares have)! ANYBODY want to write about that advantage? Why do you think Mark Z. is holding onto his 10 votes per shares stock and NOT selling them?

    Thank you SA for all your articles (especially you Tim $5.00), I want you to write another article and give me your latest estimate of FB stock price (I am hoping it will be lower than $5.00). I do want FB stock to go down in the short run. I would love to buy more at $18.00 or lower. That way, when the final lock-up expiration is past, we will see SA switch to actually talking about earnings and revenues. But one must be careful there too, because if you compare two companies (which SA is famous for doing) by PERCENTAGES only, that can be misleading.

    Would you want to buy a company with 10% growth or 20% growth in net earnings? You see I left off the amount of earnings - if the 10% is from a base of $500,000 and the 20% is from a base of $50,000 that would change most of your readers answers! So please when you run out of the scary information you present about the lock-up expirations (that were all printed in the S-1and amendments by the way), and start to talk about revenues and earnings, make sure you don't just talk about percentages.

    One last food for thought, if Google is getting $8 Billion from mobility, and FB just started to report earnings from mobile, do you think the growth rate for GOOGLE or FB has a better chance to have double digit (or triple digit) growth?

    Just some food for thought. I know you SA authors (like Tim) thought that FB would not be around to monetize mobility ...
    Oct 29 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Face It, Facebook's Growth Is Decelerating [View article]
    I have to I am like gregphil22, in that I have 5K shares or so that I bought PRE-IPO ("Investment") through an auction that I had planned to hold for at least a year AFTER the lock-up expiration (November 14, 2012). I also had bought FB stock to "Trade" with which I bought for an average of about $18.25 per share, with plans to add to those shares when the price dips below $18.75 and sell some when the price gets above $22.00. I had plan to be out of the "Trading" position completely before November 14, which except for less than 1,000 shares I am.

    Once November 14 comes, and I see the volume and movement on FB, I will then pick an entry point to buy long, and then add 15% to 20% to that price to start my selling again. This way, every quarter for as long as FB has SA authors BASHING it every chance they get, I can see myself doing this quarter after quarter after quarter.

    I know I can do the same thing with calls and puts, but those have EXPIRATION dates, and if your wrong on the position, your time is limited, whereas if it is a stock position, you can just hold your long position into a longer term gain. I am still a believer that FB will not just go away ...
    Oct 29 04:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Facebook Regain On Mobile Ads Momentum? [View article]
    Like I said before (without being specific on how many shares) 50% of what I own in FB is for a long term hold position, with only 5K shares in my IRA (which is even longer). The other 50% of the shares I own, were bought for trading purposes. I separate my account into a Long Term Investment stock ownership, and a Trading Short Term account. That 50% short term trading account is were I produce enough Capital to invest in my long term account (by the way at least 25% of that is in Dividend paying stock only - which generates cash too), and enough to pay my Federal and State estimated Tax liability, and my Real Estate Property Taxes for the year (which I pay both half's before the end of the year.

    So with that being said, the 5K I am holding for the long term account (which I bought prior to FB going public through an auction bid at I must admit was high $34 per share), which also come off lock-up in November 2012 -I do not plan to sell for at least 1 and maybe 5 years down the road.

    The other 50% that I "play with" in my short term trading account I bought in the low $18 range (around an average of $18.25 to $18.30 per share). Just like when I buy these shares, I sell at different levels when the stock goes above $20, and then when it got above $22, sold a little more aggressively. My plan is to have zero FB shares by the end of October or the first week in November (which I have a few more shares to sell).

    Then, when the expiration of the lock-up in November comes and when I see the stock drop and then stabilizes a little (by the way that is when I will get the 5K shares of my "Long Term" investment transferred to my regular account from the company that sold the pre-IPO shares to me), I will pick a new price of FB stock to buy at, and start this short term trading on FB all over again!

    I try not to be too greedy, so when I start making 15% return, I start to sell some shares, and by the time it gets to 20% return, I start to look at selling the rest. Then I watch the movement of the stock and try to pick a low and then a wait for the 15% to 20% gain (in that way, some short term trades do sometimes become a longer term trade). If the stock has too much bad news (I am talking about earnings or lack thereof and not perceived TSUNAMI news of "lock-up" expirations - yeah I know the stock will go down some for FB and I agree it will - but don't agree it will go down to $5 a share like some people on SA continue to preach it will [and I guess pray it will for their short positions]) I just get out of it completely.

    I do this with about 20 up to about 30 or so stocks. I don't like to play with puts and calls (even though there is more leverage with these and the fact that you can limit your losses too). I have done that game, and in the long run, I broke even or had a slight gain.

    This way if I am wrong, (which I admit I was wrong in buying FB Pre-IPO in August 2011 for $34 per share), I still have the stock and it is only a "PAPER LOSS" and not a "REAL LOSS" until I sell, and that is why the 5K shares will be in my "LONG TERM" trading account and not in my "SHORT TERM" trading account come November expiration.

    I know this is long and wordy, but I just find it amusing that when FB stock is going up or down, all these SA "Authors" come out an say FB will be at "$5 in a year and won't even exists in 5 years" because of this MASSIVE TSUNAMI of a +1 B share lock-up expiration! I still say I would rather see a 6% - 10% growth in Net Income from a company with $5 in cash for every share, and billions of shares outstanding, and over $4 billion in revenue, than a company without that cash, making 25% - 30% growth in Net Income, and just started breaking $100 M in revenue! Don't look at the percentages look at the $$$$$$'s!
    Oct 28 12:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Facebook Regain On Mobile Ads Momentum? [View article]
    tkcwu

    Go back and check you figures! Last year mobile users 240m?????
    Oct 25 10:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Still Too Early To Go Long Facebook [View article]
    heliskiier:

    "Reopened" your short position? I new you had a short position, but you don't talk about what you just lost $$ the other day. Yes, a short term short position would be good right after an 18% gain! But for sanity, you should get out of that position during the Novemebr lock-up pressure on the stock! After that, it will be earnings call after earning call that drives this stock down or UP!

    Be careful, don't be too greedy - as with this move, there might not be as many sellers as you think with the +1 billion shares - maybe just maybe they are willing to hold onto their stocks a little longer(?).
    Oct 25 10:10 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Still Too Early To Go Long Facebook [View article]
    Whitehawk:

    Do your research! Out of the 1 Billion (no dollar sign), how many does Mark have ... Find the answer to that question, then you will see a NEW number that you can take about (let's say for arguement sake) 50% will want to sell. Now what is your number? You see, just because +1 billion share come off lock-up, doesn't mean they all hit the market!
    Oct 25 10:01 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Facebook Down To $5: A Story Of Slashed EPS Estimates And Diminishing Visibility [View article]
    Tom:

    When will you say you were wrong on the $5.00 target for FB?

    Although the FB earnings report in my opinion was not good enough for the +20% move in the stock, I do believe that in upcoming reports that the Income and Earnings will support a higher value than it is today. And I do agree that the November lock-up expiration will have a negative influence on the stock price, but once the dust settles - long term investors (people that hold onto stock longer than when you should write another $5.00 target price of FB article) WILL get rewarded for buying the stock between $18 and $20 rather than selling the stock and waiting until it gets to $5.00.
    Oct 24 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It Is Still Too Early To Go Long Facebook [View article]
    I love it when the SA Authors come out and BASH a stock like FB, then turn around and say another stock is "BETTER." Heck, I need to push another stock other than FB (besides I have LOVED FB and buy when it is close to $18 and sell when it is close to $22 - these number will change obviously)! Can I become an author for SA?

    To tell you the truth, I was wondering who else is NOT going to admit that they were "wrong" in their estimates about FB, and to tell (a one sided "scoop") how once again the "stock-armageddon" is just around the corner when the major lock-up ends around November 14th.

    Congratulations, you are the first! By the way do you even know what GAAP stands for, and why earning are reported NON-GAAP and GAAP? Maybe you should try to figure that out BEFORE you start trying to sell everybody what you just did - a one sided all in all lie!

    Gets some guts to admit that FB is further along monetizing mobile than you ever expected, that would have been a better start. By the way I do agree that when the November lock-up expiration comes that because of the SUPPLY and DEMAND issues, the stock will come down, but once those have been sold - you and other SA authors will have nothing but earning (GAAP or Non-GAAP) to support or attack!
    Oct 24 01:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook A Value Buy? Stock May Not Have Hit Bottom Yet [View article]
    Regal53

    What are you SHORT FB? What you say makes little or no sense! Half (at least half) of the companies in the world "PRODUCE" nothing, they are "SERVICE" companies!

    Your comments don't even require a response.

    I on the other hand was trying to get a point across to the author about REVENEUS versus NET INCOME - there is a difference.

    This is a company that was felt to be a "growth" company, but it has not produced the growth it was hyped up to do. So naturally the price will decline. And yes, I have also agreed with everybody who has pointed to the lock-up expirations (remarkably spelled out in the S-1 filing - oh that's right you don't read or understand - and MUST keep reminding yourself about them) and the price decline they will cause. We don't need a crystal ball to predict that (do we).

    Oct 18 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook A Value Buy? Stock May Not Have Hit Bottom Yet [View article]
    You should learn the difference between REVENUE and NET INCOME, before you write an article that mixes the two up!

    Your numbers need to be looked out before you scare people off from an INVESTMENT (in future earnings). Law suits, name me one large or medium size business that doesn't have a law suit!

    Now that FB is trading above $20 a share, I guess it's time for SA writers to start the UNQUALIFIED writings to scare any novice investor away.

    By the way the 2nd quarter BEAT expectations in Revenue, but fell short on the GROWTH side of expectations (FB not growing as fast as "some" investors would like). Earning fell short but they were earnings.

    Try to get your facts straight when FB reports 3 quarter!
    Oct 17 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
    I would LOVE ALL MY "BROKEN" companies to have profits like FB. Just because the FLIPPERs of IPO's didn't get their 30% return for holding onto FB stock for an hour or two ...

    And IM: What I basically said is IF YOU READ THE S-1 and the Amended S-1's, you would have ALREADY known when and how many shares come off lock-up each month. You would also have some idea of the MAJORITY STAKEHOLDERS of these shares. AND if you watch the SEC filings, you would know WHICH ones are selling!

    I am not saying that FB will not fluctuate in price (in fact I buy as close to $18 as I can, and sell when it gets above $20 to $22). So right now my trading portfolio has some long term FB stock (50% of the total FB stock I own at close to $18), and some "trading" shares of FB that I sell pieces of all the way to $22 (the other 50%).

    At each expiration, I hope to have zero left of the trading shares, then the day of the expiration (sometime during that day) I hope to be a buyer of FB stock to "trade" with. Then I do the same thing over again, until the next expiration. This month is a little different because FB is also expected to release the quarterly results - so that will also move the stock as well as the expiration of a few million shares. November is the BIG one, but almost half of those are owned (which you purposely AVOID saying) are owned by Mark Z. whom said he is not selling for at least a year!

    I am just wondering what you will have to write about FB after all the expirations of the lock-ups? Maybe you can give lessons to your readers about "How to read S-1 filings 101!"

    Nothing you have said in your article has not already be disclosed in the S-1 (and the amendments to the original S-1)!

    That was all I was trying to say. And no, I haven't lost a dime on FB stock. I have only profits by using articles by SA writers to BUY on the dips and sell on the upside! I have done this 4 times (on the last one before the November plan to be at 0 trading shares). As far as my long term 50%, with the profits I am pocketing, the average price is going down...
    Oct 17 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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