Seeking Alpha

SMJTRUST

SMJTRUST
Send Message
View SMJTRUST's Comments BY TICKER:
  • The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
    lot2

    You better go back to school and learn a little about stocks and MATH!
    674 million times roughly $19.50 is not $45 billion. The market prices in ALL shares lock-up or not! Just like earning per share is based on TOTAL stock not just FLOAT!

    Float is going up so instead of the speculation and growth (or lower growth [but still growth mind you]) FB will have a challenge of the law of supply and demand.
    Oct 17, 2012. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Flood Of Facebook Shares Is Coming - Grab Your Ark [View article]
    Boy, another SA author looking into his crystal ball to come up with these statistics, and then saying "The stock will go down as these expiration come." Get a life! This is NOT news, and you keep saying this (why?)! What you leave out (conveniently by the way) is that Mark has over 600 Million of these shares coming off restriction, which he states he is not going to sell for at least a year. That leaves a little over half left - for the employees to decide if and how many they are going to sell.

    Please also note: that if the holders of these stocks do not trade them, they will have the Class "B" shares that are worth 10 votes for each share. This may be one reason they do not sell! Although there will be some that sell to buy that house, car, or boat they wanted.

    I agree with you, that the stock price will go down, but it will also go back up once these stocks have been traded (supply and demand) and after this quarter and maybe next quarter releases. I do not agree with the "other" SA author (and I say that term kindly) that states it will be below $5 (which is about what they have in cash), but I also feel it will not be near the IPO price either ($38).

    It is a broken stock, not a broken company! It is looking for ways to generate revenues and thus income, and I would be careful to count them over and out (at least for now).
    Oct 16, 2012. 06:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Flings Spaghetti As Lock-Up Expirations Approach [View article]
    MZ has over 600 Million of the over 1 Billion that are coming off lock-up in the next few months. Sure, some will sell to get some money to buy that over priced house in Menlo Park, but let just say that for argument sake, the other 600 Million (let's also round this off) sell, then those shorts will be hanging out there trying to BUY those shares to cover those shorts.

    No wonder every time the stock takes a breather SA writer get busy patting themselves on the back for being so brilliant and being the FIRST to tell everybody to watch out for the expiration of the lock-up stock and that will in and of itself drive down the stock to $14 or lower! Wow, I cannot wait until the big November 2012 lock-up expiration has passed just to see these guys eat crow!

    Yes everybody know thanks to these SA writers that more stock is being "UNLOCKED" - thanks for that news (the idiots that bought the stock without READING the S-1 filings didn't know that). My guess is the retail investor who bought the stock shortly after the IPO, thinking that it would take off and he/she could reap $$'s if not thousands of $$'s - yes the FLIPPERS that got BURNED and are crying to their lawyers - "it's not fair" - are the ones that didn't read the S-1, and these expiration of lock-ups are NEWS to them!

    So thanks SA, keep these articles coming - what will you write about after the last of the large lock-up expires? Maybe by then you will see that FB has taken stride to Increase the TOP line and BOTTOM line (Revenues and Net Profit for those that don't understand), and maybe (just maybe mind you) FB will turn around the trend of declining increases of both.

    Where were you hiding when FB went from $15 and change to $22 and change? Oh, your pen ran out of ink?
    Oct 5, 2012. 09:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Facebook Down To $5: A Story Of Slashed EPS Estimates And Diminishing Visibility [View article]
    raviunnam: First off, you keep bashing FB, why do you feel a company goes IPO for? Is it for the "FLIPPER" (somebody who buys the stock on the IPO just to sell it when it "pops"), or to raise CAPITAL so that it can pay off liabilities and operating capital, and to give LONG term investor an investment (more than a few hours) future gains? Why do you think FB "should have left money on the table for these "FLIPPERS."

    Secondly, you say "The true cost of building and running FB has to include the billions of shares ( due to successive rounds of dilutions and funding ) outstanding." I have news for you, the expiration(s) of lock-ups DOES NOT DILUTE, it only adds to the float! So then the law of supply and demand kicks in, more sellers than buyers - the stock price goes down, more buyers than sellers the stock price goes up.

    I don't say the stock price won't go down at each lock-up expiration, but as soon as those share (only the ones that are going to sell - and MZ said he isn't going to sell the 600 million he will have after lock-up) gets absorbed in the market place. Then earning per share (which includes float and lock-up shares) will drive the stock up and down.
    Oct 3, 2012. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Faces Tough Challenges Ahead [View article]
    heliskiier: First off, I did (and don't) report you or anybody. Second, you are really smart! FB is not "iisuing" a billion (or more) shares at $20.00 after they selling the same at $38-$45. GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT BEFORE (YES BEFORE) you put your foot in your mouth!

    FB sold shares at $38.00 at the IPO (along with a lot of early investors) not $38-$45, the retail clients once it went IPO bought and sold shares after all the shares offered at $38.00 were sold! In fact, shares were sold all the way down to the low around $17.55.

    They are not issuing MORE shares, these shares you are talking about come off "restriction" and can be held (as class B shares - 10 votes per share) or converted to class A shares (one share - one vote) and sold. I don't thinkanybody who hold will convert to class A until they are ready to sell. These shares are already "sold" on paper to early investors and employees (options), and are ALREADY calculated in the Revenue and Earning per share calculations.

    All I am saying is that just becuase FB earnings and revenue growth is declining, DOOM SAYERS are not giving FB thebenefit of the doubt, that management can or will want to reverse that trend. I am not saying that the stock should be at $20 - $45, or $5. What I say is until early next year (or at least until after the major expiration in November and tax selling in December 2012) saying it will go to $5 a share without ANY DATA (earning - losses), is like saying it will be $100 - just as good - MEANINGLESS.

    Good luck with your shorts! I get LONG at $18 or so, and when it gets to $22.50 I will start selling a few shares. Buy low sell HIGH, and don't be greedy! That is my advise. I will keep a lot of the stock I bought at $18 as a LONG TERM INVESTMENT, but trade a few thousand shares (buying at $18 and selling above $22) a 25% gain (before taxes).

    I think that strategy is better than selling short at $21, then finding out they are mastering monitizing mobile, or the people are giving them credit card information, and trying to wait to see the stock hit $15.75 to get that same 25% return!
    Oct 1, 2012. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Facebook Down To $5: A Story Of Slashed EPS Estimates And Diminishing Visibility [View article]
    You are so full of yourself! I noticed you (and the other FB bashers) get your article published whenever the stock has some positive upward movement. By now EVERYBODY knows of the over 1 billion shares coming off of lock up in November. NOT EVERY ONE OF THOSE SHARES IS GOING TO HIT THE MARKET AS SELLS! Yes, there will be a number that want or need to sell, and that will lower the stock price. But you are "GUESSING" and making BIG ASSUMTIONS that FB revenue growth will be DECLINING and continue to decline! Wow, can I look into your crystal ball!

    Why not wait a few more weeks to see what the revenue will be?

    Oh, I get it, you want the stock to decline, so that the shorts can profit - oops - this article is probably what is causing FB to be up 7.85% to +1.59 to $21.91!

    I am not saying that at $22.00 a share is a reasonable price based on revenue and earnings, but the scare tactics you and the other Seeking Alpha ought to get together and get your crystal balls checked out!

    FB will never go to $5.00 a share, and follow the footsteps of other social media firms that have gone away ...

    I cannot believe that you actually make a living from SA! Why the heck would somebody (SA) pay for an article like this? Like I said at the beginning of this: You are so full of yourself!
    Sep 28, 2012. 12:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Faces Tough Challenges Ahead [View article]
    You are so full of yourself! I noticed you (and the other FB bashers) get your article published whenever the stock has some positive upward movement. By now EVERYBODY knows of the over 1 billion shares coming off of lock up in November. NOT EVERY ONE OF THOSE SHARES IS GOING TO HIT THE MARKET AS SELLS! Yes, there will be a number that want or need to sell, and that will lower the stock price. But you are "GUESSING" and making BIG ASSUMTIONS that FB revnue growth will be DECLINING and continue to decline! Wow, can I look into your crystal ball!

    Why not wait a few more weeks to see what the revenue will be?

    Oh, I get it, you want the stock to decline, so that the shorts can profit - oops - this article is probably what is causing FB to be up 7.85% to +1.59 to $21.91!

    I am not saying that at $22.00 a share is a reasonable price based on revenue and earnings, but the scare tactics you and the other Seeking Alpha ought to get together and get your crystal balls checked out!

    FB will never go to $5.00 a share, and follow the footsteps of other social media firms that have gone away (My Space) ...
    Sep 28, 2012. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does Facebook Compare To Its Competitors? [View article]
    I just have one comment, would you rather have 32% growth of $4+ billion income (and profit margin of 13+%) or 80% of $0.724 billion income (and only 1.8% profit margin)? Boy is this article terrible! By the way when Linkedin start making 4 billion in revenue I doubt that it will be still growing at 80%! Get real and start using some MEANINGFUL comparison.
    Sep 12, 2012. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Search Engine: The Death Of Google? [View article]
    There is always room for competition. It is just another way FB can earn some more revenue! More revenue, less some expenses, equal net income! What a concept. Let's keep knocking Mark Z, because now he concerned about the stock price and stock holders of the company and not so much interested in getting more users (what he is now interested in Revenue/Expenses/Profits? What have we do? We've turned him into being a business man/ a CEO). To me he is (and will be) a Bill Gates and /or Steve Jobs, but let's hope he learned from all his and their mistakes!
    Sep 12, 2012. 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Come Off The Sugar High: Go Against The Grain On Facebook [View article]
    Merik:

    I think you have to see the interview again. Look, a CEo cannot show you his hand, but Mark did talk about what FB is doing, and what direction it is g(r)o(w)ing!

    Get real! Lets see how they do after they report earning (a few more quarters will do), and after the last of the expiration of lock-ups (which even I think the stock will go down - but eventually will recover).

    Good luck on your prediction. But sooner then later even you MUST look at numbers (not just PE)! Is LNKD in OVERPRICE just because the have a PE over 1,000(!)? I think so, but it is still trading over $117 per share?
    Sep 12, 2012. 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mark Zuckerberg To Investors: Give Facebook 3 To 5 Years [View article]
    Kyle:

    So why is it that you and your followers always cry (like a baby when not satisfied)? Everybody know (if you read) that the PC applications are dwindling and the mobile applications are GROWING. FB has been a PC based application and derives most of its Revenue and Net Income from it, but has slowly been motorizing the mobility side. Yes it is not growing as much as you and your followers want, but that is good for the INVESTORS of FB (not your followers that need to be INSTANTLY gratified when you buy a stock and EXPECT it to DOUBLE in a day or hours). Like I said before, it is easy to predict that FB stock will decline in value at each expiration of lock-ups (law of supply and demand), but once all these lock-ups are done, and quarter after quarter of Revenue and Net Income increases are reported, then and only then can you make a statement like you do! In fact because of writers like you, many people are ":shorting" FB shares, and "expect" disappointing earnings at the quarter ends - thanks, it makes the analyst job a lot easier to predict a higher price for FB (and investors like me who decided to get in at between $17.75 and $18.00 a share and plan to hold onto to it for 2 - 3 years a hefty profit). Hey doesn't this sound just like the EARLY investors of FB who had to wait longer than 3 years to reap their profits (Oh by the way they still own a LARGE position in FB)!

    So people that are selling short, keep up the good work! The Investors that have sat on the side lines, that now want to get in (and stay in for the next 2-3 years) LOVE you!

    By the way, FB was a bust NOT for FB the Company, but for the FLIPPERS and the not too smart investor that buy on emotions! One of the reasons a company goes IPO is to raise CAPITAL, why should they price a stock low when the demand is there for it and it pops? Do you think LNKD (Linkedin) would have been better off today if they had priced their IPO at $80 instead of around $40 (I forget the exact IPO price). I know they would have raised twice the capital (which is one of the reason they went IPO)! Instead the flippers got that capital!

    Enough said ...
    Sep 12, 2012. 12:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Shares Highly Susceptible To Reaching $10 [View article]
    Samuel:

    Two grossly misleading pieces of information and one piece of information totally wrong! First the wrong piece of information, Companies go IPO to RAISE capital, not to make the people who buy the stock at the IPO rich (when all they want to do is turn over the stock - commonly known as FLIPPERS). FB went public for a number of reasons, to raise money (which it did VERY well) and two MZ had a $1 Billion tax bill he needed to pay.

    The two pieces of misleading information is you show the declining increase in USERS to 5% then you correlate that with earnings and say because the user base in not increasing at the fast rate as in prior years advertisers will spend less? Where do you get that?

    The second misleading piece of information is when you became the Judge and Jury about the "allegations" that the underwriters disseminated information to some investor and not others about the revenue and income growth projections being lower - well I hate to be the one that give you the news but it is in the S-1 and S-1A's that came out, on top of which that is the way Wall Street NORMALLY does business!

    First off, the INVESTORS with the most invested in the company get the news, and then it trickles down to the investor that has 100 shares and less to lose. That does NOT "automatically violates Regulation Fair Disclosure."

    The stock may go down because of the lock-ups, but you should check your numbers again, as they have over $10 Billion in cash, and their ad revenue is coming in at over $1 Million a day!

    The growth will not be 30%, but who cares, they are profitable, and they are growing! Soon after the lock-up expirations you won't have anything to say, the law of supply and demand will settle the price (and a decent P/E ratio). Remember too, that earnings are based on the over 2 billion shares not just the float!
    Sep 6, 2012. 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Zuckerberg Not Selling For A Year - A Red Herring [View article]
    Tom:

    I think you should write about something you know about! First off 34 of 35 "Qualified" analysts look at the numbers - earnings, revenues, and number of shares! FB is a profitable company (OK it does have over 2 billion shares) but the earnings per share is based on the number of shares outstanding (NOT JUST THE FLOAT)! They also say it is a buy not because of the earnings today, but the earnings (or potential earnings) of a year or two away! They are saying buy now not for the person who wants to make a quick buck, but for the "INVESTOR" the person you know or care nothing about when you write an ignorant article!

    You don't like looking at the facts do you? You just like commenting to get feedback - I laugh at all the people the follow and drink the same Cool aide you drink. Of course the stock will have it's ups and down. Of course this was a MASTERFUL IPO for FB (they went IPO to raise the most money it could for the EARLY investors [payback is a B****] and FB itself). Mark has always said he was going to sell enough shares to pay his tax bill - he did - why should he sell more - just because you say it is going down to $5.00 a share?

    You are playing in the hands of the short sellers and the puts "players." Once the float is out, and the stock settles around $10 - $18 you will of course change your tune, because by then those that wanted to sell (for tax reasons or to buy a house for cash) would have sold, then the true investors will come in and start buying the stock, and guess what, they will buy the stock because the company is finding new ways to generate Revenues, and income, and soon all the courts will (and lawyers) will start to act on and throw out the law suits (that every large company has by the way).

    Then the price will be based on fundamentals and of course the law of supply and demand! The stock is broken not the company, you should start looking into the facts not just take a number out of your A**, try using your brain if you have one.

    I am glad you make money on the articles you write, because the more you encourage all your followers to sell until it gets down to your $5.00 target price, the more all your followers will blindly go, and if they borrow the shares to sell, I would love to see their faces and pocket books when all the float is finally available, and none of (us) want to sell ---!
    Sep 5, 2012. 10:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Analyst Downgrades: Do We Care? Are Any Analysts Now Credible? [View article]
    MARCAP - investors are not the ones selling at this time (after all if they invested any money after the IPO, they have lost). An investor is NOT one that reads scare tatics articles like what Tom writes with NO back up to his $5.00 price (which is really $3.00 right now because FB has $2.00 per share in CASH)!

    Investors hold onto a stock of a company, and wait for all the day traders to lose, all the shorts have to cover, and wait for the new IPO to show that it's business plan will indeed proove the "writers" (which after reading all of Tom's articles about FB, I have decided Tom is just a "Con"-trarian) wrong over the "LONG PERIOD" of time (more than 1 or 2 quarters)!

    I would love to see what Tom's price target is when FB reports its quarters in two years! If he would have written the same articles about YAHOO, he would have been eating his words (as Yahoo went down after its IPO then turned around and the rest is history at least up until Google came around).

    So I will look to read his articles about FB in 2 years and would LOVE to see him eat his words about a $5.00 FB stock price (with or without Mark Z)! Until then ...
    Sep 3, 2012. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook Target Price Is $5, But More If Zuckerberg Quits [View article]
    Tom:

    Read the last quarter release ... that is where you will see the Revenues increasing, and earnings increasing! A one time charge brought the earning to a loss, but overall they were both increases from prior quarters! Just because both didn't increase more than what you or others thought, the stock sold off. This at least I understand and at least I look at the numbers! To say FB will get to $5 a share when it already has $2.00 a share in cash shows that you are ignorant to say the least, and just want to say something just to cause panic, after all you get "published."

    It kinda causes me to wonder why you get published at all - and all except one analysts still has buy rating n FB with better than a $25 target price?

    All I am saying is you need to look at the revenue stream and earning stream of a company before you make a FOOL of yourself and everybody who thinks you are right. You may cause some people to short a stock and wait until it gets to $5.00 to cover, and you could and will be wrong, and they will lose a lot of money when they go to cover (after December 2012).
    Sep 3, 2012. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on FB by SMJTRUST
COMMENTS STATS
79 Comments
150 Likes