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WallStreetDebunker

WallStreetDebunker
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  • The #1 Stock In The World [View article]
    Has anyone noticed that another popular blogger on SA just popped out an article title that kind of steps on Mr. DeMuth's "Sifting the World for Misplaced Bets" theme? The article title starts with

    "Scanning The SA Family For Alpha..."

    Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery (depending on who does the flattery).

    If I were to create a subscription blog, I too would imitate Mr. DeMuth's theme, but with a twist:

    "Straining the Financial World For Credibility"
    Jun 27, 2015. 01:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The #1 Stock In The World [View article]
    The new profile photo is confusing me. I used to visualize Mr. DeMuth as a micro-brew beer-drinking, wood-chopping, hipster with a rare knowledge of clever, obscure money-making tricks. Now I'm visualizing him as a Wall Street dandy who spends lots of time at charity galas and wine-tasting events. I'm confused.

    Mr. DeMuth should consider using the following profile image of J. R. "Bob" Dobbs. It bears a reasonably close likeness to his face, yet brings back the hipster mystique that his old profile photo had:

    http://tinyurl.com/obe...
    Jun 27, 2015. 01:37 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Afford To Hold Cash [View article]
    "Cash gives us time to think, so we'll hold it as long as necessary."
    --Michael Price
    Jun 26, 2015. 11:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Game Publishers Will Go Digital, Making GameStop Waste Away While Gamers Rejoice [View article]
    Robbert: BKS seems expensive at this point. I don't own it anymore. When they spin off the college bookstores as a new company, the new company might be worth a look the next time retail stocks get taken to the wood shed in a big way.
    Jun 26, 2015. 04:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • You Can Afford To Hold Cash [View article]
    An interesting analysis. The overvaluation risk of US stocks is higher than at any point in history since the late 1990s. People don't have to hold a chunk of money in 0% cash. There are 5-year CDs available that pay 2.5% with a mild early withdrawal penalty of only 6-month's interest. Besides that, terrible market internals are starting to create some stock prices that offer tolerable risk/reward for long term holders.

    For example, suppose some retail investor has been sitting in cash since 2009 and he's feeling stock market envy. He could put a little of that cash into a hard-to-lose stock like Walmart or Berkshire Hathaway right now and burn off some of his bull market envy with very low long term risk. Not likely to create a homerun, but decent long term returns are probable.

    With that said, it's a probable slam dunk that there will be much better market values in the not too distant future. This is the 3rd longest bull market in 100 years, after all.
    Jun 26, 2015. 03:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quote Of The Afternoon – Friday, June 26, 2015 [View instapost]
    As long as you abide by the freedoms that he approves of, he's all for freedom. He's a typical neo-con who hijacks slogans from libertarians (who find him repugnant).
    Jun 26, 2015. 02:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Starts Unexpectedly Plunge 11.1% [View article]
    I'm not a big fan of the author, but the single family homebuilders have not significantly outperformed the Russell 2000 for about 3 years, and they're far more volatile. That's not exactly a triumph for the sector.

    Have any of the homebuilder permabulls made any money where the real housing recovery has been happening: construction and management of apartments and condos? Sam Zell has been suggesting for several years that this was by far the best sector to be investing in within the commercial real estate market. Alas, most people were too busy predicting an illusive single family housing construction recovery that STILL remains near recessionary construction levels.
    Jun 26, 2015. 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Ye Of Little Faith' What Has It Cost You? Part 1 [View article]
    grisly: I just checked your previous claim about SP 500 Aristocrat performance. The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats underperformed the S&P 500 from 1990 to 2001. Obviously you just read the propaganda in that article without looking at the chart. It's amazing how often DGI claims are factually, historically, or mathematically wrong. This is my last comment to you.
    Jun 26, 2015. 04:38 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Ye Of Little Faith' What Has It Cost You? Part 1 [View article]
    "On what shall I base my investment decisions?"

    The longer the historical period the better. At the very least, you should examine a period of rising interest rates as well as declining interest rates. Value investing has worked in BOTH interest rates scenarios. You would be better served by spending more time researching factor analysis by academics and professional quants (like Cliff Asness) rather than heeding the ill-informed (and unaudited) advice of amateurs and newsletter bloggers.
    Jun 25, 2015. 11:56 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Stock Overview: Realty Income Corporation [View article]
    "dividends are cash in my pocket"

    No they're not. They are cash in your brokerage account until you reinvest them. (You talk about doing this constantly.) This means that you are exactly as vulnerable to the risk of an economic and stock market meltdown as someone who owns only non-dividend paying stocks. You're repeating a fear-reducing cliche of DGI, but there is no truth to it unless you do not reinvest dividends constantly.
    Jun 25, 2015. 10:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Ye Of Little Faith' What Has It Cost You? Part 1 [View article]
    "Stick with dividend aristocrats (DA for short). They trounce the market."

    No, they outperformed the S&P 500 for a recent period of 20-something years. That's a small historical sample (from a unique period of regularly declining interest rates).

    Value strategies and other strategies have had outperformance for 80+ years. The Aristocrats index does not have a robust historical data set. You've studied Physics. You know better than to draw a conclusion from such a narrow data set, especially in "social studies" (which is what data mining stock performance is).
    Jun 25, 2015. 10:13 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Ye Of Little Faith' What Has It Cost You? Part 1 [View article]
    "In the market over the last five years, underperforming the index by a modest margin is still doing very well!"

    I'll bet you're the type of guy I'm going to meet in Hell who is whistling and smiling as he carries out his forced labor job of pushing the wheelbarrow of coals to the fire pit.
    Jun 25, 2015. 10:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Ye Of Little Faith' What Has It Cost You? Part 1 [View article]
    I pity those who never do a rigorous check to see whether all their efforts spent stock picking have even matched an appropriate benchmark. Even more, I pity people who pay money for stock-picking services from people who do not have an audited track record. I also pity people who waste money on nutritional supplement placebos.

    Maybe we should all have a pity party here in celebration of all the world's pitiful people.
    Jun 25, 2015. 09:54 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Game Publishers Will Go Digital, Making GameStop Waste Away While Gamers Rejoice [View article]
    Is Amazon doing well? Last year, Gamestop had triple the operating income of Amazon. If you were to visit some GME stores in America in the poor neighborhoods--where gaming is hugely popular--you would understand why GME has a pretty good business going.

    You are right that bookstores are declining (slowly). The college bookstores of Barnes & Noble are a pretty good business, believe it or not. They have a bit of a monopoly in those locations and they sell all kinds of items popular with students, not just books.
    Jun 25, 2015. 09:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Game Publishers Will Go Digital, Making GameStop Waste Away While Gamers Rejoice [View article]
    Great idea! GME will be boarding up its stores right after Barnes & Noble closes down and puts all those useless paper books in a pile for an obsolete technology book burning party. Wait, I just noticed that Barnes & Noble hit its 5-year high stock price. Never mind.
    Jun 25, 2015. 08:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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