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Placebo Investment Advice

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  • Income Investing, Picking Stocks And Uncertainty [View article]
    "I take my "stock-picking hobby" (as you call it) every bit as seriously as I did my 30 year professional career in corporate finance."

    There are tens of thousands of very intelligent professional fund managers in the world who take stock picking as seriously than you, yet over the long run, only 2-20% match the appropriate benchmark.

    You might be saving $30,000 in fees, but might be losing far more than that per year in the long run in you trail a benchmark index by a tiny percentage. Hard work might be its own reward for those with a Protestant work effort. That doesn't mean that it is a smart financial decision.
    Jul 14, 2015. 02:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Income Investing, Picking Stocks And Uncertainty [View article]
    The greatest irony among many dividend bloggers here is the incessant citation of Buffett quotes. Yet almost none of the bloggers own Berkshire Hathaway stock because it pays no dividend. (Buffett has clearly explained that Berkshire does not pay a dividend because it is not in the best interest of shareholders.)

    The invoking of Buffett quotes seems to be a veiled form of self-flattery and sophomoric effort at establishing credibility. Authors who don't own Berkshire shares should be required to pay a royalty to Buffett's favorite charity each time they cite his aphorisms.
    Jul 14, 2015. 02:19 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Income Investing, Picking Stocks And Uncertainty [View article]
    No stock tips here? No caipirinha? No música?

    Just don't expect a second date.

    Seriously, this is a great article that should be required reading for newcomers to SA who are pondering whether to embark on a stock-picking hobby or unpaid retirement portfolio management career.
    Jul 14, 2015. 12:56 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends & Income Digest: Once Interest Rates Rise, What Happens To Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    giorgio: Here's my advice to you and other readers here:

    Don't look for advice from anonymous or unaudited people on the internet.

    As for "bond funds will be killed," that's mythology usually found among people who spend too much time looking at stock tips.

    "To incur a 20% loss on a bond fund with a duration of 5.6 years, interest rates would have to rise instantaneously by approximately 4%. Even a 10% loss would require an immediate—and historically unprecedented—jump in rates of roughly 2%."
    Jul 13, 2015. 11:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends & Income Digest: Once Interest Rates Rise, What Happens To Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    giorgio: I used Tesla as an example to show that a topic can be wildly popular without a cliquish support group in the comment section. Tesla comments are often hard knuckled brawls and microscopic technical discussions, yet those articles are as popular as any on SA.

    If it weren't for the current popularity of dividends, this section of SA would likely not be very popular. Enjoy it while it lasts. And hope that bond yields don't rise dramatically and stocks don't suffer a deep bear market. These events would end the fascination with stock dividends quickly (particularly from retired people who would rediscover the meaning of risk).
    Jul 13, 2015. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Total Return Is Like Trying To Add Apples And Bananas [View article]
    "The goals are about money, income and annual increases in income from the dividend growth portion of the portfolio."

    To quote the E-trade baby:

    "Whatever helps you understand, man."
    Jul 13, 2015. 09:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Total Return Is Like Trying To Add Apples And Bananas [View article]
    giorgio: I did, on 04/12/12. That's why I knew that BKS had killed the Aristocrats, and that the blustering dividend-promoting author in the linked article had stepped in his own bilge.
    Jul 13, 2015. 09:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends & Income Digest: Once Interest Rates Rise, What Happens To Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    giorgio: The popularity of DGI articles here is largely due to the trending popularity of dividends combined with a loyal group of regulars.

    The popularity of Tesla articles is off the charts. People love the car. People love or hate Elon, the stock, and the Tesla articles here. People love to talk about the company. It's not the quality of the comments. It's the cult-like fascination with Tesla--which admittedly has been a pretty big development in the automobile world. Without Tesla, electric cars would be off the radar of most Americans.
    Jul 13, 2015. 08:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends & Income Digest: Once Interest Rates Rise, What Happens To Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    DVK, I have a few friends who are former writers, editors, and a photographer for major printed publications. The availability of ubiquitous lower quality internet content has made it hard for them to make a good living. One of them said, "It's like I woke up one day and nobody valued my skills anymore."

    I don't where the money is going, but internet publishing is often a black hole where money goes to die. SA seems to be doing well in the toughest environment in history.
    Jul 13, 2015. 08:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Total Return Is Like Trying To Add Apples And Bananas [View article]
    The author of the linked article provided by Mr. Schwartz mocked the performance of Barnes & Noble soon after cutting its dividend. Since the date of that article, the S&P Dividend Aristocrats Index has underperformed Barnes & Noble by over 40%, and the Aristocrats underperformed the S&P 500 by about 10%.

    Seeking Alpha should sell t-shirts with the following slogan:

    "DGI: It's Not About Money. It's About Goals."
    Jul 13, 2015. 07:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Backtesting Articles Are For Entertainment Purposes Only [View instapost]
    WF: No ideas at this point, but I suspect your call for a 50% fall will occur at some point.

    It seems like lots of stuff relies on China, as the western world has chronic anemia from too much debt. If interest rates rise throughout the world, things will get very interesting, I suspect.
    Jul 13, 2015. 03:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends & Income Digest: Once Interest Rates Rise, What Happens To Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    After reigning in the trolls, the next improvement would be to reign in the chatty comments, unfunny inside jokes, attaboys, and other vacuous debris. While Tesla articles attract the most contentious and hostile comments (which are often entertaining), some of the dividend articles attract the most banal and dull comments.

    I wonder how many newcomers here read a dividend article, see 10 comments with attaboys and inane inside jokes, then go back to Cramerica or Motley Gruel?

    There should be a limit to the number of comments that are simply a "Thank You" or "Great Job!" comment. Those comments probably decrease user engagement. Private messages are best for such comments. The authors and their supporters enjoy such praise, but it's a scrolling speedbump to many others.
    Jul 13, 2015. 03:35 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends & Income Digest: Once Interest Rates Rise, What Happens To Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    emac: If you look at the public financial metrics of TheStreet.com, you will likely have more empathy for SA. This is a tough industry in which to make a profit. Hard to win, easy to lose. I expect that SA will have to beef up subscriptions as time goes on. Without massive scale, it's hard to profit from internet ads.
    Jul 13, 2015. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividends & Income Digest: Once Interest Rates Rise, What Happens To Dividend Growth Stocks? [View article]
    ParInvest: Most people do not know how hard it is to make a profit in providing an internet publishing website. SA has tons of expenses (servers, editors, office space, etc.)

    I hate to put it this way, but many of the recently successful newsletter providers here would be toiling in obscurity were it not for the hard work of SA. SA did the heavy lifting. They took the expensive risks and continue to do so. Don't they deserve the rewards as much or more than a blogger who works out of a Florida condo's guest room (with no expenses)?
    Jul 13, 2015. 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Backtesting Articles Are For Entertainment Purposes Only [View instapost]
    "my opinion is the market is more likely to double before it falls significantly."

    Woah! That would likely be the largest bull market gains (by percentage) in history.

    The fund companies always give the public what it wants. The best quants on the Street know that dividend-focused or DGI strategies are a low rent, second class quantitative strategy, but they've been shoveling Dividend (and Aristocrat) ETFs to the yield-starved mob anyway.

    In financial services, the customer is always right (until he's broke).
    Jul 13, 2015. 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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