KenC

Total Rating:
+3 / 0

132 Comments

    • Fri Aug 22nd 16:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Microsoft's New $300 Million Makeover
      MS has always spent tons on advertising, meaningless messages, like where do you want to go today, or Wow. Just wasted money.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 22nd 16:16 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nokia Gets No Respect Against Apple, RIM
      Good analysis, but I'm not so sure about your conclusion.

      You said, "My hunch is that Apple has at least another year or two before Nokia gets its software act together. (And if Nokia doesn’t, then Microsoft, RIM, LG or Samsung will.) So, as when it faced Windows 95, Apple better have something up its sleeve to further advance innovations when competitors catch up to its first mobile phone act."

      These companies have all had years and even decades to develop the best software they could, and they haven't. Where are they going to get the software chops now? Alot of it is structural. Can they build a great UI on top of the Mobile OSes they are currently using? That's a technical question, and as far as I've read, Symbian isn't going to work, why else did Nokia turn to Linux for its internet devices like the N800? WinMobile has been around for a decade and they're playing catchup. They can't shoehorn XP or Vista into a cellphone, so they've had to write a Mobile OS from scratch. How do they catch up to OS X which is the basis for Apple's computer, TV, iPod and iPhone OSes? Apple's OS structure allows them to develop faster, and more efficiently at lower cost, as they can share the costs over a variety of products. Look at Sony, Steve Jobs said a decade ago, that their weakness was software. It still is. The problem facing these companies isn't new, and yet, they've never addressed it. Look at Palm. They've had to scrap their OS and build another based upon Linux.

      We know that Apple is not going to rest on its laurels. They are pushing PA Semi to come up with their own ARM design. They are pushing OS X into new areas with Open CL. They are rewriting Leopard for greater efficiency in Snow Leopard. They aren't standing still, just like the iPod, the greater conclusion is that the other companies will only get further behind, as Apple's software will optimize for its hardware, differentiating it even more. The fear for the other cellphone companies is if Apple is able to bring its great functionality to cheaper phones, like it did with iPods. Right now, Apple plays at the upper end of the smartphone market, sort of like Apple's first iPod was at the premium end of the harddrive-based MP3 players. Eventually they moved down to flash-based iPods and cheap shuffles, taking over 70% of the market. No one things Apple will take over 70% of the cell market, but if it takes a majority of the profitable segment, then the other cell companies are in trouble. They'll end up in the commodity segment, like Dell in PCs.
      View article »
    • Mon Aug 18th 21:13 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple: Great Company with Lofty Valuation - Due for Pullback
      What an incredibly superficial analysis! Are you new to Apple? I mean, what motivates an analyst to play along with Apple guidance? Wouldn't they be better off advising their clients to their true understanding of Apple's earnings?

      Did you back out cash before applying P/E ratios? Did you think to make any comment on how deferred revs and earnings do not seem to have been factored into analysts' predictions?

      Have you considered that Apple has done quite well in the current macroeconomic climate, contrary to naysayers like yourself? Have you paid any attention to Steve's health issues? And, even if the dollar has strengthened slightly, have you done any analysis on pricing of Apple products in foreign countries to figure out what the potential impact could be? No, none of the above? Well, without that disclosure, I think anyone would take your comments with a huge grain of salt.
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 15th 15:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      How Apple Stock Should Be Valued: P/FCF
      Good post, Andy. You are right, the market should be using a FCF valuation method, as opposed to the archaic PE valuation; but people are so used to PE valuations, you just can't get away from it. I mean, if you try to change the way people do valuations, they'll just look at you, and say, isn't that what happened that led to the dotcom bubble?
      View article »
    • Fri Aug 8th 11:03 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple Can Disable iPhone Apps, but Should They?
      Of course everyone knows that one of the business security features that everyone was asking for was a Remote Wipe capability. Why is it so surprising that with Remote Wipe capability that there also isn't Remote Disable? This is an Enterprise Security FEATURE.
      View article »
    • Thu Aug 7th 13:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      5 Reasons Not to Upgrade to the New iPhone 3G
      AT&T did give you an upgrade path for old iPhone owners. Owning an old iPhone with an AT&T plan, QUALIFIED you to get the subsidized price of $199 or $299 for the new iPhone 3G. If you didn't qualify, ie own an old iPhone, you'd have to pay $200 more. Got it?

      Also, it's nice that the Apple Store didn't honor your $100 credit, but everyone else seems to have gotten to use theirs. Did they recognize that yours was fake? Also, if you had been really smart, you'd have used an AMEX Gold card or other credit card with price protection. I did, and got $100 back from AMEX too. So, I paid $300 for my iPhone.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 5th 21:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      iPhone Production Rumors Swirl
      Uhm, Sekar, how do YOU know that Steve Jobs didn't know that the iPhone would get cheaper over time, or that 3G was coming, when he made his 10M iPhone prediction?

      Did you listen to his original presentation at the WWDC07? He specifically states that 3G is coming. And, the iPhone isn't cheaper, Apple gets even more now than before. It may appear to be cheaper, but Apple is getting anywhere from $400 to $600 per phone depending upon who you ask.
      View article »
    • Tue Aug 5th 15:41 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      iPhone Production Rumors Swirl
      Let me point out that the rumor of 800k iPhone 3Gs a week started, oh, way back in mid-to-early June. There was a report in Barrons picked up by Henry Blodget.

      If you recall, there was a "negative" report spun that said production of the iPhone had been "slashed", 16% from the original 3rdQ order of 12M, which results in 10.2M. Of course, if you do the math, that's about 800k phones a week. If you add a runrate of 12M for the 4thQ, that's 22.2M iPhone 3Gs ordered for 2008. Add in the 2M EDGE iPhones and that's about 24M iPhones in 2008. Of course, they won't all be sold this year, but still, that's over double the oft-quoted target of Steve Jobs for 10M in 2008.
      View article »
    • Fri Jul 25th 08:09 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple: Unlocking iPhone Profits
      I wrote an article on this topic at macdailynews' Opinion page, 3 months ago, after the FYQ2 conference call.

      macdailynews.com/index.../
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 24th 00:25 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple F3Q08 (Qtr End 6/28/08) Earnings Call Transcript
      And, don't forget, Oppenheimer does not say EPS guidance is exactly "$1", he says it's "ABOUT one dollar". In science, we say that significant figures would indicate that the level of precision in "ABOUT one dollar" means anywhere from 51 cents to $1.49. In other words, Oppenheimer is being deliberately vague, and not necessarily conservative. I mean, how can one get revs up to $7.8B and give the exact same EPS guidance of "about one dollar" as when Apple did $7.5B in sales in the two quarters prior. I know Gross Margins are guided down, but the EPS guidance of "ABOUT one dollar" was given for revenue guidance of $7B in the 2ndQ, for $7.2B in the 3rdQ and now $7.8 in the 4thQ. It doesn't make any sense unless Oppenheimer is being deliberately vague. The analysts should have picked up on this, and pointed out that word, "ABOUT" has preceded EPS guidance the last three quarters.

      I also noticed as did the first comment that Oppenheimer stressed, for the FIRST time, that revs would be FAR higher if they recognized revenue as it was booked and not deferred. I estimated that the Xmas quarter did $10.5B in sales and not the $9.6B reported; and about $8.0B in sales in the March quarter not the $7.5B reported. You'd think the analysts would know this, without being told.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 16:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple Is Biting Off More Than It Can Chew
      I think it is incredibly wrong to imply that there is something definitely wrong with Steve. You are NOT an oncologist.

      The rule of thumb is that 5 years post-op, cancer is cured. Steve is well past 4 years post-op. As time goes by, the chance of recurrence is increasingly unlikely to the point, 5 years out, that the cancer is declared to have been cured. Steve is almost there. Rumoring around now, is incredibly irresponsible.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 16:31 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple vs. Bank of America: When "Whisper Numbers" Come Home to Roost
      Your comment on Apple makes no sense. It would be one thing to lowball and give guidance below reasonable expectations, but Apple gave guidance typically 25% above the previous year's sales. The analysts can wink all they want, but they are free to come up with their own estimates. Apple beats those estimates too.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 16:26 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time to Stand Up for Steve Jobs
      Given where Apple is today, it's clear that Apple plans 5 years ahead. Otherwise, its digital hub vision would not be where it is. Look at all the pieces that had to be in place, from the hardware to the software, to the media apps to the media itself. All of these things had to be built for the next step to be taken. This took long range planning.

      With Snow Leopard and OpenCL, Apple is putting in place a couple more tools to take Apple another 5 to 10 years forward. People, particularly analysts just don't see it. With or without Steve, Apple is the best positioned tech company for the foreseeable future.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 23rd 16:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's Jobs Says He Is Cancer-Free - NYT
      5 years post-op is considered the benchmark for being cancer-free. Steve is very close to the 5 year benchmark, and the risk of recurrence is increasingly unlikely the further one gets out. So, I'd say the rumors of recurrence from folks like Blodgett and the NYPost were irresponsible.
      View article »
    • Thu Jul 17th 16:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Why I'm Shorting Apple Ahead of Earnings
      I think the stock will trade sideways on FYQ2 results, but be ready for a huge upside as FYQ3 news keeps coming. Given that, a short position is risky and requires too much attention and timing. I'm long and intend to stay long, as I don't have the time to watch the stock constantly.
      View article »
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»