KenC

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132 Comments

    • Mon Jul 14th 01:24 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Did Apple Manufacture a First-Day iPhone Shortage?
      One, I imagine that Apple based delivery upon sales of the initial iPhone rollout.

      Two, it's quite possible that Apple wanted the AT&T store to have stock on its first two days, limiting sales on Day 1 in order to have some stock on Day 2. Perhaps, the store was scheduled for a new shipment on Day 3. That way the store has inventory every day.

      During the initial rollout, Apple was restocking Apple stores on a daily basis. But with AT&T's many smaller stores, it may be on a less frequent basis. Also, the phones may actually have to go thru an AT&T warehouse first, and then get distributed, requiring more time between shipments. Plenty of possible reasons for how things get distributed.
      View article »
    • Wed Jul 9th 13:33 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple's iPhone to Capture Chinese Internet Market
      EDGE is very good in China. As fast as many home DSL networks, as DSL stinks in China, because landline connections stink. That's why everyone is wireless!

      As far as people being able to afford the iPhone. I read that 1/4 of the cellphone market in China is for handsets averaging $500. Honestly, the first time I walked into a Chinese Mobile store, I was shocked at the prices. They're not subsidized.

      There was also a report by InStat-Asia, yesterday that stated there are already 1M unlocked iPhones in use in China.

      People will absolutely use the iPhone as an internet device, as most people do not have laptops or PCs in the home, but they all have cellphones.
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    • Tue Jul 8th 13:57 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      iPhone Can Replace Laptops for Majority of Computer Users
      In places like China, where wifi is not common and DSL is rather slow, and EDGE is very strong, the iPhone makes a good laptop substitute. My three nephews and nieces all have laptops, but honestly, the impression I got was that laptops are not at all ubiquitous; however, everyone has a cellphone. They do seem to use their cells more like how we use our laptops, so I can't see using my iPhone as a laptop replacement unless they come out with one with twice the screensize, but I can see countries like China and India, where they use their cells as their mobile hub, adopting the iPhone.
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    • Fri Jun 27th 21:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Nokia Is Taking on Google's Cell Phone Software Play
      It all sounds just wonderful, but are you so sure that Symbian is as capable a platform as OS X used by the iPhone or Android will be? Developers are attracted to open-source, but they want to sell Apps. Will there be an App Store to get their apps in front of eyeballs? And, even if Symbian is a majority of the smartphone market right now, it's fragmented over hundreds of handsets. Each app will have to be customized for each handset. For the iPhone one app fits all. This is part of the trouble Android is running into, leading to delays. Also, nothing stopped developers from creating apps previously, if it's such a stellar platform, why hasn't anyone talked up Symbian as a platform, when OS X and Android were being launched?

      Didn't Nokia move its N800 platform to Linux, and not Symbian, because Symbian wasn't powerful enough? How does this inspire confidence in Symbian as a platform to compete with OS X or Android?
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    • Fri Jun 27th 21:22 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Research In Motion's Dream Run Comes to an End
      Alot of people are coming to conclusions based upon ignorance. I just ignore those.

      Let me just say, that it's possible, that a rising tide raises all boats. Blackberry has had a boost from an increasing consumer awareness of the smartphone niche.


      As for Apple, I think the author is probably right, and that Apple will likely trade sideways or down at the next earnings call, as Apple has already stated that they will not take any income from iPhone sales from March until the SDK is released. Essentially, other than Deferred Revenues, there will be no new iPhone revs. That doesn't mean the iPhone revs won't be there, they just will be deferred into the next quarter. This should have a small but palpable effect on Revenues. Hopefully, the analysts who listened to the last conference call will adjust their expectations accordingly, but I don't think they will. I haven't seen any of them adjust their earnings since the last conference call, citing this downward accounting adjustment.

      I don't trade short-term, but invest long-term, so I won't sell my shares and try to time when to get back in, to take advantage of the huge 3G iphone sales. It's up to individual investors, but timing the market is a tricky business.
      View article »
    • Thu Jun 26th 13:32 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Apple TV a Viable Replacement?
      1) TV tuner/DVR-So you want a STB replacement. Well, unless you have a cablecard built into the ATV, it won't happen. And, given how problematic cablecards have been, I doubt it will happen, so the STB stays, and you'll just keep having to hit "video 2".

      As an alternative you could setup an EyeTV that records in HD, and has "streamer" software to stream your shows/movies. I think it also automates the process of getting your shows into the ATV.

      2) iPhone/Touch portability-Well, you are not going to be able to stream a show, without plugging it in. Why not just buy the $50 set of cables and connect it to your friend's TV? The only advantage to connecting an iPhone/Touch to the ATV is to get the HD content, but you can't move the HD content, so there's no advantage to connecting directly to the ATV. Connecting to your Mac, allows you to move all your non-HD content easily. I just moved the "Untouchables&quo... which I got for 99 cents from my Mac to my iPhone. I can now hook up the $50 set of cables and watch in on someone else's TV.

      3) All in due time.

      4) Apple would sooner include a DVD player than a BD. BD is still a niche product.

      5) Legal DVD Ripping? Studios will never allow it. Just let the in-the-know users do it.

      6) Remote - Expect one for the iPhone/Touch once the App Store is up and running.

      Other than integrating an EyeTV device, I'm not seeing too much here.
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    • Thu Jun 26th 13:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Apple Checks Show Big Upward iPhone Build Revisions; Positive for Chip Suppliers
      I thought NPD or Taiwan Economic News had already reported that Q3 iPhone orders were 10.2M, and that Q4 was for 12M, totaling 22.2M in 2008, not counting the old iPhones that shipped in Q1 and 2.
      View article »
    • Mon Jun 23rd 16:44 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      'Best of Breed' Business Model a Chink in Apple’s Armor?
      Seems like a very nice non-Apple laptop. A few things. One, a nice copy is always, just a nice copy. Two, I like the idea of a HDMI port instead of a mini-DVI. Same quality, but more common to find a HDMI dongle. Three, Apple Store pricing is uniform in the US. Four, I would have to test how well the dual Linux/Vista OS is integrated.

      And five, for someone who makes a special point about battery life, the Envy needs a removable battery since its battery seems to be especially small, 3-cells, and only rated for 3hr 45m. The MBA has a battery that is rated for far longer, and does actually seem to last comparably longer than other similar products. I mean if you need a removable battery, to get "amazing battery life", you can get an external battery that sits under your MBA. No big deal, but I'd rather have a superthin laptop with "amazing battery life" built-in.

      And, one more, I'd like to check to see if that battery adaptor isn't some gigantic beast, seeing as they moved some functionality over to it. If you have to carry it, it should count, and not be a cheat to a superlow weight spec.
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    • Sun Jun 22nd 12:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Hidden Financial Impact of Apple's iPhone
      Don't be surprised, I wrote an opinion piece over at MacDailyNews after the last conference call, that points out how analysts are befuddled by Apple's iPhone subscription revenues, just by the fact that they compare current quarter revenues to previous year's revenues, without mentioning that they are comparing apples to oranges. You can read my opinion piece with lots of links at:

      macdailynews.com/index.../

      I enjoyed the last couple posts you have made, Zaky, but I think you should try to extend your subscription analysis out for one more year. The reason being, is that this quarter's subscription revs add to the previous 4 quarters. We won't see eight quarters of subscription revs added together, until we get two years out from the iPhone launch.

      As for Munster's predictions. I think recent rumors that Q3 shipments are in the 10 to 12M range, and that Q4 shipments are to be 12M, may very well be true. Like iPods, I expect Q4 sales to be double that of Q3, but in this case Q3 is a bit special, with the global launch of the iPhone 3G.

      The bottom line is that the market and analysts are seriously underestimating the impact of the iPhone's true revenue because of Sarbanes-Oxley accounting. While this annoys me since I have Apple shares, I think time is our friend, and when the true revenue impact is revealed, as only time can do, then people will feel very, very foolish for not having invested in as sure a thing as you'll ever find in the marketplace.

      Amazingly, with the recent chess moves that Steve Jobs and his people have been putting in place, Apple is well positioned to add a few more legs to his stool. Imagine real enterprise sales. Imagine if Grand Central is a real breakthru in parallel processing, then there will be a huge speed advantage to multi-core Macs over PCs. Imagine, a bevy of post-PC devices running a multi-touch OS, with syncing to the cloud. These are all areas where MS could be eating some Apple dust in a couple years. Amazing times.
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    • Fri Jun 13th 00:28 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Are Glorious Days Ahead for Microsoft?
      You do make some interesting points about the numbers; however, when you talk about specific products, I start to shake my head. The Surface table is a solution looking for a problem. Multitouch for Windows 7, it's hard to see how that could apply to anything much larger than the niche tablet market. Voice recognition, Bill Gates has been touting that it would be the way, the majority of us would navigate our PCs in 5 years, and that was over 10 years ago. And, the Xbox? It's been the 4th best selling console in the US since January, after the PS2 and PS3 and Wii. They just announced May sales and yes, again they trail.

      Even if your numbers seem to point one way, perhaps the market is being influenced by the lack of excitement about products like the Surface, Multitouch, Zune, and Xbox360; not to mention the lack of leadership from Steve Ballmer and the decidedly poorly handled Yahoo! buyout. How can a buyout be a good idea to compete with Google, and then not be a good idea?
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 11th 15:05 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chinese Consumers Cite Pricing as Concern for Apple's iPhone
      Yes, every customer would prefer less expensive phones. Duh!

      Now, as for the China market, I saw a report back when there was a large telecoms conference on Hainan Island, in March, that said 25% of chinese cellphone owners spend $500 on their handsets, unsubsidized. That's more than enough to keep Apple happy, without having to drop prices any further.
      View article »
    • Wed Jun 4th 17:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      iPhone “By the Numbers”: Apple’s Sweeping Tide Across the Globe
      You said, "(Analyst's note: Total carrier numbers used without adjustment would be misleading. Some cell customers counted in total subscribers won’t fit as potential iPhone buyers due to their income and spending power. This is especially true in lower income and developing economies in countries like India."

      While this makes intuitive sense, it does not factor in that countries like India and China do not sell cellphones subsidized like in the US, which would make the addressable market larger, as people are less resistant to full-retail pricing. Also, a study in China showed that 25% of the market there, spends 500USD on average for their cellphones. That's a far larger percentage of the addressable market willing to spend $500, than in the US. So, while your analyst's note makes intuitive sense, it does not take into consideration the counterbalancing effects I noted above.
      View article »
    • Sun Jun 1st 15:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      In Light of Peak Oil, Financial Diversification Is a Bad Idea
      So, you're saying people need an energy hedge and a currency hedge, right, and that buying Brazilian or Russian should kill two birds with one stone?
      View article »
    • Wed May 21st 15:38 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Could iPhone Subsidies Be Apple’s Ticket to Mainstream USA?
      This rumor was started by Scott Moritz. He is a well-known fudster, who has tried to drive down Apple sales and its stock price before. His goal is to get people to delay purchases, you know, the Osborne effect, in order to drive down the stock. He uses his relationship with TheStreet.com and Jim Cramer to accomplish his goal. Recall that he was the one that made up the story that Apple's goal was to sell 1 million iPhones on its first weekend of sales. Of course, we all know that to be garbage as Apple never shipped 1 million iPhones for first weekend distribution. Nevertheless Scott Moritz never explained nor apologized for his FUD.
      View article »
    • Wed May 14th 20:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Will Apple Be Dragged Kicking and Screaming to the Business Market?
      You know what developers make money off Mac software? Why Microsoft developers of course. Didn't you just see the article that Mac Office 2008 sold 3x faster than Office 2004, and that it was the best selling Office Suite in 19 years?
      View article »
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