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  • Apple Watch: Revenue Projections [View article]
    @aquila, I like your %ages, I've thought it possible that the Steel model could be the majority, given that that is where all the variety is. And while I used 3% for Edition watches, I am thinking it may be less.

    Having said that, I was wondering about your $651 ASP. What assumptions did you use to get that? When I put your %ages in my calculator, using my assumptions of $375 for the Sport, $750 for the Steel and $12000 for the Edition, I get an ASP of $810.
    Apr 1, 2015. 12:04 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: Revenue Projections [View article]
    Not very useful since they're talking about asset millionaires. Typically much of that wealth is tied up into property.
    Apr 1, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Watch: Revenue Projections [View article]
    Interesting, I did my own back-of-the-envelope calculation a while back, literally, it's on the back of an envelope.

    I also used revs/1M units, and used a conservative breakdown of 63.3% Sport, 33.3% Steel, and 3.3% Edition, with ASPs of $350, $750, and $12,000 for a total of $872M/ 1M units sold, and thus a total ASP of $872.

    I also came to the conclusion that the Edition even at my 3.3% estimate makes a huge contribution in sales, 46%, and an even greater contribution in profit.
    Mar 31, 2015. 07:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Could Go Down In The Class Struggle [View article]
    "class struggle" Who knew we'd get Marxist thought on SA?

    "The struggle between class and class is a political struggle. Or maybe it's a retail struggle." or maybe it's an imaginary struggle in the author's mind?

    "a lot is riding on its success. How much of the company's current $717 billion in market cap depends on the Watch isn't clear, given that the Price/Earnings multiple on the stock is still close to that of the market at 16.6, but it's clear volatility"
    Your own point shows that the Watch has minimal impact upon the share price, and it's not at all clear that it will have any impact upon volatility. How can you just say that without any proof?

    "the middle class ambience of its own stores" The ambiance is "middle class"?

    "By making some pigs more equal than others, in Orwell's words, Apple is breaking what had been a covenant with its customers.

    The blowback could prove fierce."
    When in doubt, hyperbole works. So, the "Pro" moniker on laptops and desktops and software didn't create a class distinction between Pros and non-Pros? How did Apple survive that apocalypse?

    "Many of Apple's traditional buyers are choking on a price tag of $350"
    What? The AppleWatch has the lowest entry price of any new product category that Apple has ever introduced! The original iPod cost more.

    "watch some airhead who never cared about Apple before going up to the front of the line and inside a special room to get what you spent hours on a line trying to see?"
    Why would you stand in line, for hours, if initial sales are by reservation? Why is the buyer an "airhead"? Did you grow up in the 70s?

    "It's now clear that Apple is serious about trying to turn its consumer electronics into bling"
    What you've written has not added any clarity to the situation.
    Mar 31, 2015. 07:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: What's A Proper Buyback? [View article]
    I can't see how any of your reasons would ever force Apple to repatriate foreign cash. Wouldn't they just issue more debt or roll existing debt?

    And yes, all investors should hope that Congress makes up its mind regarding the taxation of foreign income. The uncertainty is what is making companies wait.

    As for what Apple states, I think it's important to clarify what that means. Certainly that is what Apple states, but I think the word missing is "currently". Eventually, Apple intends to repatriate a majority of its foreign income, I estimate about 2/3rds. That's why they book US tax on that amount. If they didn't intent to repatriate that cash, someday, then they could book zero US tax on that amount. If they did that, their net effective tax rate would be about 12% and not 26.3%.
    Mar 31, 2015. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung S6 Will Keep Up Competition With Apple [View article]
    "borne fruit with Samsung surpassing Apple in customer satisfaction in a survey of 70,000 American smartphone users published recently"

    And the second time you used this outdated survey. It may have been "published recently", but it was done over a year ago. Ancient history.

    "A survey of 70,000 customers in the United States conducted by the American Consumer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) from September 2013 to March 2014 "
    Mar 17, 2015. 04:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung S6 Will Keep Up Competition With Apple [View article]
    "That estimate may prove conservative if a recent survey by Edelman Berland has any substance - it shows a sizeable population of iPhone users would switch to a Samsung device under certain circumstances with only 16% of iPhone users saying they would not switch under any circumstance."

    Another odd reference. The link goes to an ubergizmo article that cites a phonearena article, where the survey actually cited is by ecoATM. Where's the Edelman Berland survey?

    As for that "sizable population" of potential switchers, the cited article states: "24% said that they would only do it if it was a free swap, and 16% said that they would make the trade if the Samsung Galaxy S6 was offered at a lower price point."
    Mar 17, 2015. 04:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung S6 Will Keep Up Competition With Apple [View article]
    "Pre-orders reportedly stand at an estimated 20 million units.

    For those readers who do not recall the iPhone 6 launch, pre-orders for the very popular device were 4 million in the first 24 hours."

    And to add some context to the above which would be misleading otherwise, the rumored pre-orders of 20M is from global cell carriers. Actual timing of shipment and sales to end users to be determined.

    From the actual Korea Times article: ""Samsung received some 20 million pre-orders for the S6 and S6 Edge _ 15 million of S6 and five million of the S6 Edge from mobile carriers, worldwide. This is the record,""
    Mar 17, 2015. 04:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Apple Making A Gold Watch? [View article]
    I forgot to add:

    "the luxury goods market is full of companies whose most visible products are extremely expensive, but whose revenue really comes from makeup, perfume and accessories."

    It's probably apocryphal, but I've read several times that Ferrari makes more profit from their t-shirt and hat sales than from their cars.
    Mar 13, 2015. 09:53 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Apple Making A Gold Watch? [View article]
    I think you are using gross margins in calculating profit. To be fair, with so much uncertainty over sales mix, you should probably use the average profit margin of about 25%.
    Mar 13, 2015. 09:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Apple Making A Gold Watch? [View article]
    Exactly, it's a halo product. It makes all those $349 up to $1100 watches seem like better values.

    Plus, I think people will be shocked at how many Chinese will buy the gold Apple Watch. Seriously. It hits all those sweet spots the Chinese like. One, it's gold. No one likes gold more than the Chinese. Two, the numbers of Chinese rich is growing faster than anyone can imagine. Three, the Chinese love to flaunt their wealth. It's not considered gauche. To be rich and not to show it, would be an anathema to the Chinese. Four, there are lots of opportunities for the Chinese to give gold Apple Watches as gifts. Husband to wife, wedding gifts, gifts to employers, gifts to employees, etc., etc., etc. Five, Apple is as desirable a luxury brand in China that there is. Apple has been expert in entering the Chinese market properly, only choosing the best locations with the nicest properties.

    As your footnote, notes, I believe Apple will replace the internals as technology improves, i.e., they include a cell radio/gps. We know the battery is replaceable, and we know the SOC is modular. Why would you make the SOC modular if you weren't planning for the eventuality that you might want to replace it conveniently? Of course, they don't talk about it now, but only when it becomes a reality.
    Mar 13, 2015. 09:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Android Photography Is About To Take A Huge Quality Jump [View article]
    Please provide links to these articles. I do hope they are more than just anecdotes.
    Mar 7, 2015. 11:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Android Photography Is About To Take A Huge Quality Jump [View article]
    Hmmm...I didn't say "all" either.
    Mar 7, 2015. 11:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Android Photography Is About To Take A Huge Quality Jump [View article]
    "The WP phones don't have a chance because they run WP - the camera is not going to save them."

    But why can't one apply the same logic to Android? The Nokia phones reportedly have the best images, and yet not enough people put the primary decision on the camera to make choosing a Nokia worthwhile. Doesn't that put the lie to your contention that people buy a phone based upon the camera?
    Mar 6, 2015. 11:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Android Photography Is About To Take A Huge Quality Jump [View article]
    So you're saying that mid-range Android owners will post-process on their PCs?
    Mar 6, 2015. 11:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment