KenC

How Apple's Market Share Will Propel Stock to $500, Part 1

Alot of the revenue increase is due to the decline in the USD. I would love to see Apple become a $500 stock, and be worth double MS, but it's going to take alot of hard work on Apple's part. We all know enBallmer is an idiot.

Apple Income Statement Analysis for September 2009 Quarter

The only logical possibility of the two you cite is #2. #1 would indicate poor planning on Apple's part, and that is not the case. Cook mentioned in the conference call it was not a seasonal increase, ie rushing out holiday product, but that it was an atypical increase, that would indicate a new product.

Android, iPhone Ride Rising Tide

You wrote, "The US carriers will eventually run out of people who want to permanently increase their phone bills $600 a month"

Strangely, noone so far has commented upon your math. Presumably, above, you meant year, but even the, you are implying that data plans are $50 a month, which they are not. They are $20 to $30 a month.

I have an iPhone 3G, and my data plan is $20 a month. Why? I live in an EDGE area, with 3G 100 miles away. I pay the EDGE rate even though when I'm in 3G-land, I get 3G speeds.

So, data plans are not as outrageous as you seem to believe.

The End of Exclusive: How Apple Plans to Grow Market Share

So, Donald, you think allowing iPhone users to move to T-Mobile is somehow going to alleviate the burden on AT&T's network? Or, did you mean that iPhone users should be allowed to go to Verizon and Sprint which both use incompatible standards? Who is going to pay to get Apple to build a new iPhone for a networking standard that is being phased out?

You write as if AT&T were Ma Bell, pre-splitup! AT&T is actually changing quite quickly, and I doubt any wireless company could have dealt with the order of magnitude increase in data usage that the iPhone brought any better.

Microsoft vs. Apple - Which Is Worth More?

You're long MS and short Apple? Justice is served.

Customer Survey Notes Microsoft's Brand Revival

You wrote, "The Windows brand revival story is a pretty clear one". Hmmm...for $300M you'd think they'd have gotten more bang for their buck.

AT&T, Apple Can't Win Fight Against VoIP

Google Voice, aka Grandcentral, is NOT VoIP.

My New iPhone 3GS: Beyond Awesome

If you are going to carry two phones, you should carry your flip with bluetooth tethering, and an iPod touch. That way you can surf the net without wifi on the touch. Essentially a WWAN netbook.

Toshiba Is Going into Flash Overdrive: Is Apple Ramping Up?

Uhm, if you listened to the last conference call, Oppenheimer or Cook mentioned that they had pre-bought $500M of flash from Toshiba.

As for suppliers, Toshiba is just one of about 5 flash ram suppliers to Apple.

7 Clues Pointing to an Imminent iPhone China Launch

Nice insight, Dan, but what happened to the last 3 Clues, or did the copy editor not read your post?

Four Reasons to Avoid Apple

You said, "The iPod market is gone." but undermine yourself when you say, "if you want an iPod, you buy an iPhone" Either way, you buy an Apple product, how is that a reason to avoid Apple?

You said, "The iPhone market is terrible: crowded, very intense competition, profit margins squeezed. We do not believe Apple will be able to sustain profit margins in some European countries for so long" and you undermine that by saying, "we do not believe Apple's competitors will improve for some years to come since companies such as Research in Motion (RIMM), Nokia (NOK) or even HTC have done a lousy job of trying to follow up Apple". So, while the market is crowded, you don't think Apple's competitors will improve for years, so what is there to fear?

As for profit margins, do you KNOW what margins Apple has on the iPhone? Gross margins are about 70%! How are they going to be squeezed? They have more room to adjust prices down than any of their competition! Their competition will be bankrupt before Apple doesn't make a profit on the iPhone.

You said, "Mac sales: The company did actually very well in our opinion, but again we consider the price of those great products very high and there will be a profit margin squeeze going forward" Macs have always been expensive. Why are they going to be squeezed now, after so many decades? There's no rationale behind your suppositions.

You said, "Probably the most important matter to be considered mid to long term: we do not believe in companies without visionaries" So, other than Apple, what companies are you invested in that have comparable visionaries? Any? What do you know about Steve that we don't know?

Your four points are poorly supported, and in fact, have very little basis in fact.

Bye Bye Apple

Muddle is right:

You said "Steve Jobs' health is much worse". Dude, if anything, Apple's ability to execute while Steve was on leave, should reassure investors that Apple will continue to execute with Steve or without.

You said, "iPod market is not growing." Yes, because it is being cannibalized by the iPhone. When you add the iPhone back in, then the mobile music player market is still growing, as are iTunes downloads.

You said, "Computer market share is down" Of course it's down. The computer market is being diluted with netbooks. If you were to separate out this group, then Apple share is up. If you include netbooks amongst computers, why not include smartphones, seeing as they both are used primarily for email and surfing the net.

You said, "I still don't see serious attempts to get into enterprise computing." You do know that Apple is building in Exchange support into the core of the OS? Not even MS does that.

You said, "iPhone market share is growing fast, so far. But there is competition around. " Thank you for stating the obvious. You have added no insight whatsoever.

You said, "Another problem is size. Apple is just too big to grow as fast as it did the last 10 years. But P/E is still suggests fast growth. I don't see any new areas where Apple can introduce new products and make money." So, which is it? Apple is too big, or it suggest fast growth? Huh? And, do you really think you know where Apple will innovate next? Did you predict the iPod? Did you predict iTunes? Did you predict the iPhone? No? Why do you think you have the ability to predict or not, the next thing Apple does?

You said, "In short, Apple is not good enough as an investment." LOL, based upon your analysis or lack thereof, I think you should not consider investing as a means of employment. Perhaps, as a hobby.

10 Reasons Not to Buy Apple

You wrote: <<1. Highly competitive markets
The chart below shows Apple's (AAPL) revenue share according to product. All of Apple’s product lines are in highly competitive markets and subject to rapid technological change and aggressive pricing.>>

Yes, and what tech companies don't compete in highly competitive markets? Wouldn't it be better to say that Apple has ALWAYS competed in highly competitive markets and has carved out a successful niche in all of them? They are at the forefront of rapid technological change and have been driving aggressive pricing where they have pricing power, like in iPods and iPhones, iTunes and the AppStore.

You wrote: <<2. Lower margin
Business Week reported on June 19, 2009 that the cost of components for Apple’s iPhone 3G is $179.16, while its retail price starts at $199. >>

This illustrates that you don't even know that the iPhone is subsidized, and is Apple's highest margin product!

You wrote: <<3. iPhone relies on single carrier>>

Uhm, room for growth?

You wrote: <<4. No room to grow for wireless market
In the US, 90% of Americans eligible to use a cell phone already have an account. There is simply no meaningful growth in this market sector.>>

Yeah, and there was no room to grow when Apple entered this sector two years ago, and look at how they've grown! You need to stop overgeneralizing and look at specific sectors that Apple is targeting. They are targeting smartphones, not the general cellphone market.

You wrote: <<5. No room for iPod growth>>

Apple is evolving the market from pure music players to include game players and cameras and whatever else they can think of. There's plenty of room for growth if you look at what the iPod touch can do.

You wrote: <<6. Wrong market target>>
And, what is the right market target? The one Dell is in? Why is BB trying to expand into the consumer space? And, pc share stats are skewed by the proliferation of cheap netbooks. You need to segment the pc market to those areas Apple actually competes in to show that their market share is declining.

You wrote: <<7. Heavy investment needed for Mac stores>>
Yes, and Apple has about $30B in cash that they can spend. As an investor, would you rather they not have stores?

You wrote: <<8. Steve’s health
It’s the process, not the pocketbook, according to the management consultancy Booz Allen. Without Steve Jobs, no matter how much more money Apple spends in R&D, there are unlikely to be more many new, revolutionary products coming to market from Apple soon.>>

Of all the companies out there, Apple may have the strongest corporate culture of all. They have internalized "the process", so that all the top execs from Cook to Ives to Shiller know it. Why should any investor rely upon your unsubstantiated conclusion that there won't be any more new and revolutionary products?

You wrote:<<9. Unclear future strategy
The next big thing in consumer electronics seems to be in home digital entertainment. With iPhone, Apple is moving into communications. I doubt iPhone could be a central control for home entertainment systems.>>

Wow, you are clueless. The iPhone AND its descendents, are the most likely devices that will be the central control for home entertainment.

You wrote: <<10. SEC investigation
Apple’s past stock option practices and the restatement of financial statements may result in additional litigation against the company.>>

The SEC investigation of Apple's stock option grants is CLOSED.

I am thinking of writing an article on ONE REASON NOT TO READ HAO JIN's posts: 1. Total lack of clear thinking.

Smartphone Operating Systems: The Market Share, Usage Disconnect

Actually if you have been studying AdMob's stats over time, you'd realize they undermeasure the iPhone's net usage. It measures MOBILE web, ie, mobile website use. It does NOT measure if the iPhone goes to a normal website, which it does all the time.

Palm's Pre Launch Has Made RBC Bullish

10M units is optimistic, since this is not a world phone, and it's on Sprint for 6 months before being added to Verizon. I think 4 to 5M units would be far more realistic.