KenC

Android, iPhone Ride Rising Tide

You wrote, "The US carriers will eventually run out of people who want to permanently increase their phone bills $600 a month"

Strangely, noone so far has commented upon your math. Presumably, above, you meant year, but even the, you are implying that data plans are $50 a month, which they are not. They are $20 to $30 a month.

I have an iPhone 3G, and my data plan is $20 a month. Why? I live in an EDGE area, with 3G 100 miles away. I pay the EDGE rate even though when I'm in 3G-land, I get 3G speeds.

So, data plans are not as outrageous as you seem to believe.

Customer Survey Notes Microsoft's Brand Revival

You wrote, "The Windows brand revival story is a pretty clear one". Hmmm...for $300M you'd think they'd have gotten more bang for their buck.

AT&T, Apple Can't Win Fight Against VoIP

Google Voice, aka Grandcentral, is NOT VoIP.

10 Reasons Not to Buy Apple

You wrote: <<1. Highly competitive markets
The chart below shows Apple's (AAPL) revenue share according to product. All of Apple’s product lines are in highly competitive markets and subject to rapid technological change and aggressive pricing.>>

Yes, and what tech companies don't compete in highly competitive markets? Wouldn't it be better to say that Apple has ALWAYS competed in highly competitive markets and has carved out a successful niche in all of them? They are at the forefront of rapid technological change and have been driving aggressive pricing where they have pricing power, like in iPods and iPhones, iTunes and the AppStore.

You wrote: <<2. Lower margin
Business Week reported on June 19, 2009 that the cost of components for Apple’s iPhone 3G is $179.16, while its retail price starts at $199. >>

This illustrates that you don't even know that the iPhone is subsidized, and is Apple's highest margin product!

You wrote: <<3. iPhone relies on single carrier>>

Uhm, room for growth?

You wrote: <<4. No room to grow for wireless market
In the US, 90% of Americans eligible to use a cell phone already have an account. There is simply no meaningful growth in this market sector.>>

Yeah, and there was no room to grow when Apple entered this sector two years ago, and look at how they've grown! You need to stop overgeneralizing and look at specific sectors that Apple is targeting. They are targeting smartphones, not the general cellphone market.

You wrote: <<5. No room for iPod growth>>

Apple is evolving the market from pure music players to include game players and cameras and whatever else they can think of. There's plenty of room for growth if you look at what the iPod touch can do.

You wrote: <<6. Wrong market target>>
And, what is the right market target? The one Dell is in? Why is BB trying to expand into the consumer space? And, pc share stats are skewed by the proliferation of cheap netbooks. You need to segment the pc market to those areas Apple actually competes in to show that their market share is declining.

You wrote: <<7. Heavy investment needed for Mac stores>>
Yes, and Apple has about $30B in cash that they can spend. As an investor, would you rather they not have stores?

You wrote: <<8. Steve’s health
It’s the process, not the pocketbook, according to the management consultancy Booz Allen. Without Steve Jobs, no matter how much more money Apple spends in R&D, there are unlikely to be more many new, revolutionary products coming to market from Apple soon.>>

Of all the companies out there, Apple may have the strongest corporate culture of all. They have internalized "the process", so that all the top execs from Cook to Ives to Shiller know it. Why should any investor rely upon your unsubstantiated conclusion that there won't be any more new and revolutionary products?

You wrote:<<9. Unclear future strategy
The next big thing in consumer electronics seems to be in home digital entertainment. With iPhone, Apple is moving into communications. I doubt iPhone could be a central control for home entertainment systems.>>

Wow, you are clueless. The iPhone AND its descendents, are the most likely devices that will be the central control for home entertainment.

You wrote: <<10. SEC investigation
Apple’s past stock option practices and the restatement of financial statements may result in additional litigation against the company.>>

The SEC investigation of Apple's stock option grants is CLOSED.

I am thinking of writing an article on ONE REASON NOT TO READ HAO JIN's posts: 1. Total lack of clear thinking.

Palm's Pre Launch Has Made RBC Bullish

10M units is optimistic, since this is not a world phone, and it's on Sprint for 6 months before being added to Verizon. I think 4 to 5M units would be far more realistic.

How Stocks Perform After Being Added to the Dow

Hmmm...no mention of Cisco?

The Palm Pre's Coming Out Party

Web apps have their place, and dedicated apps have theirs. Pre putting all of their eggs in web apps is only giving the user half of the benefits. Remember how developers and analysts kicked and screamed when Apple only offered web apps initially?

A lady phone is not going to appeal to guys.

Mobile Ad Market Share: Android Catches Up to Palm, iPhone Still King

What the last chart implies is that since these modern smartphones are showing real internet pages, not JUST mobile internet pages, their numbers of requests are far lower than their their actual internet usage. Just something to keep in mind, because not all of the smartphones in their analysis are so good at going to real internet pages as the iPhone and G1. Thus those other phones that go ONLY to mobile websites would get a disproportionate number of mobile ads, as measured by AdMob.

For example, looking at the last chart, and at the iPhone's numbers. They are saying that July 08, the iPhone got 20M ad requests, and by Nov 08, was getting 12x more, at 238M? Clearly, the iPhone number looks small in July 08, as the iPhone was avoiding mobile websites and going to the real websites, where AdMob's ads were not being served. Once the dedicated apps were launched, AdMob could then serve their ads in those apps.

AT&T Complains About Google, Apple Coopetition

Well, the carriers that are most desperate, T-Mo and Sprint, are the most likely candidates to rock the boat with devices that turn the carrier into a dumb pipe. They have no choice.

The carriers with the most to lose, like Verizon and AT&T, will resist devices that threaten their value-added services as long as possible. There's no way that Verizon will take on an Android-based phone, unless they cripple it somehow. That's their style. Until a Pre is a booming success on Sprint, or some Android phone is a booming success on T-Mo, and by booming success, I mean, Verizon is actually losing customers to those two. Until then, Verizon will not change their modus operandi.

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

"The second buyout should be Nintendo buying RIM. Once again a perfect fit. "

Please explain the "perfect fit" in detail.

You know, the less you write, the less likely people are to think you a fool.

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

Bruce said, "Apple (highly profitable) should buy Sony (currently making massive losses). This is such a brilliant fit at so many levels that you wonder why it hasn’t already happened. Apple would bring their software and sexy design to Sony products. And in return Apple would become a world class consumer electronics company overnight. "

Wow, are you just trying to save Howard Stringer's bacon, or what? Sony already has "sexy design", and Apple is already a "world class consumer electronics company". Can you explain any of the technological or product mix "fit" that makes you think this is "brilliant"?

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

Bruce says, "But they have the potential to steamroller over everyone. The Zune is a great bit of kit but, relatively, it is a commercial failure. What gives Microsoft the capacity to come out of their corner fighting is Xbox Live, a mobile version of this would give AppStore more than a run for the money. And if I know this then so does Microsoft. Meanwhile they are still third overall in the smartphone market with 12.5% of handsets, so they have something to build on."

Oi, there's that word "potential" again. Wow, someone thinks the Zune is a "great bit of kit". Wow. Boggles the mind. Oh, sure, specs look good, but execution was lousy. Oh, just what we all need, more points. And, are you so sure a mobile version of X Live will give the AppStore "more than a run for the money", I mean, just about every MS backed music service killed the iTunes Music Store, right?

As for MS's market share. You do realize that their share is falling rapidly, and will fall even faster when Palm goes WebOS, and HTC continues to gravitate to Android, and Motorola goes toward Android. I mean, if Android is so great, how can that be good for MS? I mean, didn't they pay a huge amount of money to get LG on board? I thought they were supposed to get paid for their mobile OS, not pay!

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

Bruce said, "Android has more potential in that it is already better and it is open source (unlike the proprietary Apple) so could very well be taken up by the big Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese handset manufacturers"

Can you backtrack and provide the evidence that Android is "already better", and what exactly is so great about open source, and how is that benefitting users? I mean how is Linux doing on the desktop? Why isn't LiMo doing better then? Symbian has gone open source, and they have a head start with its existing relationships with 3 of the largest mfrs already.

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

Bruce wrote, "If I were in the market right now, I would want a Google Android device. The combination of features and benefits puts it at the top of the heap. Unfortunately Google, for all their technical brilliance, are very bad at marketing. So Apple, who are absolutely brilliant at marketing, continue to outperform with their inferior iPhone. But such is the intensity of this war that Apple are playing catch up with a downloadable upgrade for existing iPhone users that brings in 100 (yes 100) new feature"

So, we have a HTC G1, and other Android devices rumored to be coming. What is it about the buggy G1 that "puts it at the top of the heap?"

Oh, btw, are you a marketing consultant, because the above implies that perhaps, you are fishing for a marketing job with Google. Google has shown some brilliance in the area of search software. They have not shown any hardware brilliance.

Please recite all those things that are "inferior" about the iPhone, and please do not mention the camera. Noone buys a cell for its camera.

You write as if you believe Apple's latest OS is somehow a response to Google's Android? How do you know this? Do you mean that Apple held an unusual presentation that it has not held exactly at this time last year? Do you mean that Apple has offered to release a new OS in the Summer, something it has never done before? Where is there evidence that Apple's latest release is anything but what they planned years ago in their approach to the smartphone market?

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

Bruce said, " And they are developing at a frightening pace where something six months old can easily be obsolete."

The beauty of the new model in smartphones, as epitomized by the iPhone is that it's a blank canvas. It can constantly be updated. An EDGE iPhone that is 20 months old can still have all the application goodness that the latest 3G iPhone has. It is not obsolete in any way.