KenC

Smartphones: It's the Software, Stupid!

I thought MS inked LG to an exclusive development deal announced at WoMoCo? Shouldn't you have pointed that out?

www.nytimes.com/2009/0...

You wrote, "Historically, in electronics LG has copied its larger longtime rival. LG has done Windows Mobile and Symbian phones, and someday will do Android too. Still, LG seems even less committed to first-class software for its phones, and thus unique devices (like the LG Lotus) languish for lack of connectivity with applications and other devices"

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

"The second buyout should be Nintendo buying RIM. Once again a perfect fit. "

Please explain the "perfect fit" in detail.

You know, the less you write, the less likely people are to think you a fool.

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

Bruce said, "Apple (highly profitable) should buy Sony (currently making massive losses). This is such a brilliant fit at so many levels that you wonder why it hasn’t already happened. Apple would bring their software and sexy design to Sony products. And in return Apple would become a world class consumer electronics company overnight. "

Wow, are you just trying to save Howard Stringer's bacon, or what? Sony already has "sexy design", and Apple is already a "world class consumer electronics company". Can you explain any of the technological or product mix "fit" that makes you think this is "brilliant"?

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

Bruce says, "But they have the potential to steamroller over everyone. The Zune is a great bit of kit but, relatively, it is a commercial failure. What gives Microsoft the capacity to come out of their corner fighting is Xbox Live, a mobile version of this would give AppStore more than a run for the money. And if I know this then so does Microsoft. Meanwhile they are still third overall in the smartphone market with 12.5% of handsets, so they have something to build on."

Oi, there's that word "potential" again. Wow, someone thinks the Zune is a "great bit of kit". Wow. Boggles the mind. Oh, sure, specs look good, but execution was lousy. Oh, just what we all need, more points. And, are you so sure a mobile version of X Live will give the AppStore "more than a run for the money", I mean, just about every MS backed music service killed the iTunes Music Store, right?

As for MS's market share. You do realize that their share is falling rapidly, and will fall even faster when Palm goes WebOS, and HTC continues to gravitate to Android, and Motorola goes toward Android. I mean, if Android is so great, how can that be good for MS? I mean, didn't they pay a huge amount of money to get LG on board? I thought they were supposed to get paid for their mobile OS, not pay!

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

Bruce said, "Android has more potential in that it is already better and it is open source (unlike the proprietary Apple) so could very well be taken up by the big Chinese, Korean and Taiwanese handset manufacturers"

Can you backtrack and provide the evidence that Android is "already better", and what exactly is so great about open source, and how is that benefitting users? I mean how is Linux doing on the desktop? Why isn't LiMo doing better then? Symbian has gone open source, and they have a head start with its existing relationships with 3 of the largest mfrs already.

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

Bruce wrote, "If I were in the market right now, I would want a Google Android device. The combination of features and benefits puts it at the top of the heap. Unfortunately Google, for all their technical brilliance, are very bad at marketing. So Apple, who are absolutely brilliant at marketing, continue to outperform with their inferior iPhone. But such is the intensity of this war that Apple are playing catch up with a downloadable upgrade for existing iPhone users that brings in 100 (yes 100) new feature"

So, we have a HTC G1, and other Android devices rumored to be coming. What is it about the buggy G1 that "puts it at the top of the heap?"

Oh, btw, are you a marketing consultant, because the above implies that perhaps, you are fishing for a marketing job with Google. Google has shown some brilliance in the area of search software. They have not shown any hardware brilliance.

Please recite all those things that are "inferior" about the iPhone, and please do not mention the camera. Noone buys a cell for its camera.

You write as if you believe Apple's latest OS is somehow a response to Google's Android? How do you know this? Do you mean that Apple held an unusual presentation that it has not held exactly at this time last year? Do you mean that Apple has offered to release a new OS in the Summer, something it has never done before? Where is there evidence that Apple's latest release is anything but what they planned years ago in their approach to the smartphone market?

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

Bruce said, " And they are developing at a frightening pace where something six months old can easily be obsolete."

The beauty of the new model in smartphones, as epitomized by the iPhone is that it's a blank canvas. It can constantly be updated. An EDGE iPhone that is 20 months old can still have all the application goodness that the latest 3G iPhone has. It is not obsolete in any way.

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

Bruce said, "Like anywhere I am on the face of planet earth I can use my phone to record events as a movie (in full colour and with sound) and within just a few seconds I can make that movie available to the whole world’s population"

Wow, are you in marketing, cause you know hyperbole, like it's going out of style. One, you can't do this "anywhere..on the face of planet earth". Two, a video clip is NOT a "movie". Three, what do you define as "full colour", because no one would describe the color gamut of a cellphone clip anywhere near the color gamut of a "movie". Four, "within just a few seconds", are you kidding? Uploading video over a cell network takes more than "just a few seconds". Five, sadly, the "whole world's population" does not have net access.

That was just the beginning of this long bit of gibberish.

The Ongoing Smartphone Revolution

WOW! There is so much wrong with this, one hardly knows where to begin!

Fourth Quarter Sees Decline in Cell Phone Shipments

Actually, not "believed", it's a fact. Just listen to the conference call. Or, read it here on the seekingalpha website. Apple sold 4.9M iPhones the previous quarter, and 4.65M this past quarter. Why wasn't it 4.4M? They drew down inventories 250k, as mentioned in the last conference call. Thus, the sell-thru was 250k higher. It's all mentioned in the conference call.

So, you would compared sequentially, 4.9M to 4.65M.

Mobile Phone Industry in Denial About Economy

Of course, any consumer has to look at his budget and decide what is essential and what isn't. Is that landline essential, when you have an iPhone? Nope. Okay, that saves $40. Are those premium cable channels essential? Nope, okay, some more saved there. Is that sports package necessary? Nah, football season is over. Is the Netflix account necessary? Heck, yeah, I'll just go out to the movies less. And, on and on. What it comes down to is utility. If the smartphone in your pocket is not doing giving you enough bang for your buck, then by all means, can it. The difference between the smartphone and the other items most consumers will consider canning is that most smartphones come with 2-year contracts. The decision to can usually comes at time of renewal, and since that comes in 2-year cycles, one would assume that smartphones as a sector would be relatively cushioned compared to other non-essentials.

Revisiting the iPhone’s Browsing Market Share (Part II)

Dude, the reason why people ragged on you is because, EVERYONE KNEW that Admob only counts "mobile web" numbers. You seemed to be the only person who did not realize that.

Can Android Save Motorola?

Wow, that's an embarassing job posting.

Don't Close the Line on Nokia Just Yet

Dude, when you start a piece with, "I consider myself pretty knowledgeable when it comes to emerging trends in tech.", you are just asking for trouble. I mean, don't pat yourself on the back with your first sentence! Pat yourself on the back, when you have some evidence in hand of your ability to forecast emerging trends!

Like write a piece on emerging smartphone trends, and then in 6 months when your points come true, then you can pat yourself on the back, and link to what you had written previously. Then you look smart.

Then you said, "The problem is that companies like Apple and RIM are selling their phones at break-even prices for the shear purpose of snatching market share from Nokia, which announced that it would not stoop to their level." Where is the evidence that Apple and RIM are selling their phones at "break-even prices"? Have you looked at their margins? Nokia didn't mention any companies by name, and the odd thing is that Nokia is the company that has been gaining market share by flooding developing markets with low prices. Besides, what I've heard is the Nokia comments were referring to Sony Ericcson, not Apple or RIM.

Then you said, "This aggressive approach from its competitors cannot last long and is purely a marketing scheme that will end." Please explain. How do you know that this is a marketing scheme that will not last long, if you don't even know who Nokia are talking about? We KNOW that Apple can't be the one, since they are making great margins on their product, so they can continue ad nauseum. I don't think anyone following RIM thinks their company is selling product at "break-even" so tell us, who is?

Then you said ,"Nokia’s new Symbian operating system is on par with the iPhone and Android, and will be able to compete with the best of them." How do you know Symbian is on par with OS X and Android? You do realize that Symbian is NOT "new". And, if Symbian were so great, why then, did they use Linux in their handheld device the N800 and N810? One would think that it would be an ideal platform for the power of Symbian if it were "on par" with OS X or Android.

Now, I can't say whether Nokia is a good buy or not, superficially it looks good to me, but your above reasoning for doing so, is sorely lacking in due diligence.

Nokia Is Taking on Google's Cell Phone Software Play

It all sounds just wonderful, but are you so sure that Symbian is as capable a platform as OS X used by the iPhone or Android will be? Developers are attracted to open-source, but they want to sell Apps. Will there be an App Store to get their apps in front of eyeballs? And, even if Symbian is a majority of the smartphone market right now, it's fragmented over hundreds of handsets. Each app will have to be customized for each handset. For the iPhone one app fits all. This is part of the trouble Android is running into, leading to delays. Also, nothing stopped developers from creating apps previously, if it's such a stellar platform, why hasn't anyone talked up Symbian as a platform, when OS X and Android were being launched?

Didn't Nokia move its N800 platform to Linux, and not Symbian, because Symbian wasn't powerful enough? How does this inspire confidence in Symbian as a platform to compete with OS X or Android?