AlexR

Emerging Markets: The New Spenders of the 21st Century

I have lived in one of the BRIC countries. I am really skeptic that any of these countries can one day pull ahead of the U.S. in terms of economic dominance, whether you measure it by GDP, productivity, or standard of living. The transformation would require several centuries. Keep in mind that the entire Chinese population has just been scammed by the Americans, at the tune of $2,000 per person... the Chinese have slaved away for years to produce goods for the U.S., in exchange for nothing but paper (dollars and treasuries) now held by the Chinese government. It seems to me the U.S. got the better end of that bargain. I have no idea how this will unfold, but at some point the Chinese will realize what a raw deal they got. A similar deal was in effect with Russia and Brazil for commodities, but they have already squandered most of the money made in that bubble. India is held back by internal discrimination (too much diversity and a social cast system) that stifles social mobility and entrepreneurship, and hence productivity. The amount of education, cultural adaptation, and infrastructure build-out that would be required to turn these "emerging" economies into rich nations would be in the hundreds of trillions of dollars.