AlexR

Pierced Hopes for Stock Bottoms

On Nov 20 07:23 AM You're Kidding wrote:
> in the long run they will actually be correct about 50% of the time, just by chance alone!

Actually the 50% long-run average would only be accurate if the stock market were a zero-sum game. It's not. In the long run, profitable companies take in more money from customers than they pay out to employees, suppliers, and governments. This "free money" ultimately flows to shareholders in some form. That makes the odds somewhat better than 50/50.