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Tom B

Tom B
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  • It Feels Like The Dotcom Craze All Over Again [View article]
    "While a reasonable stock such as Apple (AAPL) gets punished for merely meeting lofty earnings expectations, and guiding somewhat below also lofty estimates, other stocks continue to form their own bubbles no matter what their earnings are."

    Great sentence, and I totally agree that AMZN-enthusiasts are delusional (great company / awful investment P/E and PEG-wise), but you must also recognize that "Apple panic" is also a well-known phenomenon. Just about every year, the manipulators come out with "doom-and-gloom " "Apple's gonna die" prognostications. And, every year consumers perversely still decide they need computers and phones-- fancy that!-- and AAPL recovers because, well, the competitors, like Samsung and MSFT, basically suck. MSFT actually seems to suck worse under every year of Ballmer. Have you seen Windows 8? What were they thinking?

    JUST ONCE, I'd like to see the market give APPL a fair valuation-- if just for a day. If it valued AAPL like MSFT, we'd be up around $700 *now*. If APPL popped up to a frothy 30 or 40 P/E (not at ALL unusually in the dot-com years), I'd sell and forget the stock with a big, fat smile on my face.
    Jan 26, 2013. 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Mysterious Case of Apple's Missing Growth [View article]
    As an AAPL investor since the time they shipped the first version of OS X and I knew they would eventually overtake MSFT, I have seen many of these irrational sell-offs. This is just the first big sell-off post Steve Jobs.

    AAPL's meteoric growth days are most likely gone, but the P/E, PEG, and dividend make the stock a no-brainer. At about P/E 9, AAPL is cheaper than MSFT's 15, and the latter company is decidedly NOT a growth company. There is nothing in AAPL's product line that lags the competition. Their OS is technically decades ahead of MS Windows and easier and more consistent than LINUX. The smartphone market is not needed by Apple, yet they continue to make the best phones and that market continues to see growth. One reason the quarterly was less exciting than analysts hoped was failure to meet demand due to supply constraints and a shorter quarter. These are not systemic problems.

    If we estimate what Apple's price SHOULD be, based on where their P/E should be, they are up around $700-750.

    When AAPL someday settles down to be a value stock, it will be at a stock value several hundred dollars higher than it ended this week, because the stock value will be based on higher annual earnings than they now bring in.
    Jan 26, 2013. 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Slow Decay Of The Microsoft Consumer [View article]
    I'll stick with CSX and DUK-- these companies have dividends and have more growth potential than MSFT.
    Apr 24, 2012. 09:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Worrisome Amazon CEO Letter [View article]
    AMZN is not an investment; it is a "gut instinct". People should take Alka Seltzer and put their hard-earned money elsewhere.
    Apr 14, 2012. 12:53 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Shares Dip As The U.S. Government And 15 States File Suit [View article]
    AMZN must have better lobbyists.
    Apr 12, 2012. 10:20 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Has Reality Completely Set In? [View article]
    AAPL is a classic "sell on news" stock. It'll drop a good $40-50 after the iPad three is officially released. Then it'll creep back up to Olympus by, at latest, end of the back-to-school quarter.
    Mar 5, 2012. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons To Sell Apple Before It Peaks [View article]
    Gee, Exxon has a bunch of oild refineries contributing to their book value. Last I checked, Cupertino doesn't have a bunch of oil refineries-- but lots of highly fungible CASH.
    Feb 15, 2012. 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Adobe And Microsoft Can Put A Clamp On Apple [View article]
    They can "hang together"; neither company has an extremely compelling technology platform. Adobe's ONLY killer app is Photoshop (Flash is a CPU-hogging pig); MSFT's business model is all about the reluctance of IT old-timers to ditch Windows. Not very threatening. Maybe Nokia could jump on board---oops, I forgot-- MSFT's trying that, too. Yawn.

    Now, you tell me GOOG plus IBM taking on AAPL and you have my attention. But I would be dumbfounded if they could blend their corporate cultures enough to work together.
    Feb 14, 2012. 04:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Apple Gone 'Parabolic' Or Just A Bit Overextended? [View article]
    Last I checked, there were still tons of people who hadn't switched from Windows to Mac yet. Plenty of upside left.
    Feb 13, 2012. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GE (GE +0.3%) and Microsoft (MSFT +0.5%) launch Caradigm, a 50-50 JV focusing on healthcare IT that will begin independent operations in H1. The new company will develop an "open, interoperable technology platform and collaborative clinical applications," the companies said. (PR)  [View news story]
    Could be a loser for both companies. On the client side, it's not like MSFT is going to have a viable tablet computing solution anytime this decade, and, on the back-end, there's plenty of server-based healthcare tracking solutions out there already.
    Feb 13, 2012. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon's Collapsing Margins [View article]
    I don't understand who "pumps" AMZN. WMT has one tenth the P/E and they have REAL stores. And a dividend, and a respectable PEG. WMT also has high debt-- it's not a "buy", by any means, but it's a safer place to put your money than AMZN.

    What happens to AMZN's margins when states start hitting it with sales tax? Some already have.
    Feb 9, 2012. 08:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CSX Corp. Preferred In The Transportation Sector [View article]
    I'm long CSX. Solid company and the rails are less crowded (competition-wise) than the skies.
    Feb 9, 2012. 08:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Future Trillion Dollar Company Trading At 46% Discount [View article]
    With a few exception (AMZN, VMW (last time I checked) nosebleed P/E's are uncommon these days. That said, less than 30 for AAPL is ludicrous.
    Feb 8, 2012. 01:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Google Beats Facebook As A Phil Fischer Stock [View article]
    I'm not thrilled with either company, though I have some GOOG. I think everybody "Googles" (except Rick Santorum); NOT everybody "Facebooks"-- and the ones who do dislike the company and the ever-shifting-- and shifty-- privacy policies. FB could be replaced, as MySpace and Friendster were. It's just that nobody has yet tried hard to do so.
    Feb 8, 2012. 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Future Trillion Dollar Company Trading At 46% Discount [View article]
    MSFT dominates in Enterprise for historical reasons; mostly because clueless IT guys drank the Kool-aid in 1981. These guys are getting ready for retirement condos in Arizona. It's not like any of MSFT's Enterprise products are irreplaceable, or even very good.
    Feb 8, 2012. 12:31 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment