Tom B's Comments

Google's Android: Emerging as a Legitimate Mobile OS

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:45:33 -0500

Idiotic comment, in that Droid is a low-end OS that will take share from WEAKER players, like WinMO and Symbian, if anybody.

On Nov 20 04:17 PM Nextel Accessories wrote:

> It is a sweet OS, I expect is to gain market share at Apple's expense

10 Reasons to Believe That We're in a Depression

Fri, 20 Nov 2009 08:57:45 -0500

AND Obama has to show SOME positive improvement in the economy by next November or he could lose seats in the House and Senate-- nevermind the whole deprsesion is "W's" fault; people have short memories. So far, we have lots of stim, money spent with NO really obvious results--employment still sucks and that's the biggest number in people's consciousness.

On Nov 19 11:52 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> bdc I know what keeps Obama awake at night. Let’s say we spend our
> $2 trillion in stimulus and get a couple of quarters of weak growth.
> Then once the effects of the stimulus wear off, we slip back into
> a deep recession, setting up a classic “W.” Unemployment never does
> stop climbing. This happened to Roosevelt in the thirties. So congress
> passes another $2 trillion reflationary budget. Everybody gets wonderful
> new mass transit upgrades, alternative energy infrastructure, and
> bridges to nowhere. But with $4 trillion in spending packed into
> two years, inflation really takes off. The bond market collapses,
> the dollar tanks big time, gold goes ballistic to $5,000, and silver
> explodes to $50. Ben Bernanke has no choice but to engineer an interest
> rate spike, taking the Fed funds rate up to a Volkeresque 18%. Housing,
> having never recovered, drops by half again. This all happens in
> the 2012 election year. Obama is burned in effigy, a Mormon is elected
> president, and the Republicans, reinvigorated by new leadership,
> retake both houses of congress. We invade Iran. Crude hits $500.
> This is not exactly a low probability scenario. Remember Jimmy Carter?
> This is why junk bond yields are still stubbornly high at 12.5%,
> and credit default swaps live at lofty levels. Are the equity markets
> pricing in this possibility? No chance. The risk of Armageddon is
> still out there. Personally, I give it a one in three chance. Pass
> the Xanax.

Should Microsoft Be Scared of ChromeOS?

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 21:20:06 -0500

"A desktop/netbook that does less than the average smartphone will by the time it hits the streets."

This is why the iPhone is the "REAL" "net book".

On Nov 19 04:30 PM jack dee wrote:

> yep, its just what everyone has been waiting for.
>
> A desktop/netbook that does less than the average smartphone will
> by the time it hits the streets.
>
> good luck with that. Goog is taking its eye off the ball.
>
>
> (long goog msft)

Are Netbooks Just a Fad?

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 22:03:42 -0500

Yes, they are a fad. If you REALLY want ultra portable and cheap, get an iPhone. You can put those right in your pocket. And they are no-compromise, solid hardware; not junk.

Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 20:35:34 -0500

This is treasonous!

And even if they stuck to civilian aircraft-- would YOU personally fly on some Chinese-built tinn can?

On Nov 16 12:00 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> So...no national security concerns there with GE "joint venturing"
> with AVIC. :( How in h#ll have we allowed this to continue???

Apple to Open 50 More Stores - Let's Be Careful, Steve

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:24:24 -0500

The reality is that: 1) everybody uses computers. That is likely to remain true. 2) about 90% of people in the US (more overseas) are still mired in Windows-world. This represents a HUGE potential upside for Apple 3) Apple stores are great for seeing Macs, pre-purchase, and for service and support. Sharper Image sold gadgets (electric back rubbers and such); computers are largely utilitarian.

On Nov 16 02:12 PM Techtrader10 wrote:

> I'm not an Apple hater. I'm just trying to keep people like you in
> reality mode! People get into these "euphoric stupors" and have no
> fear of the market and find themselves in trouble because of it.
>

China: Consequences of the Sleeping Lion Awakened

Mon, 16 Nov 2009 11:55:52 -0500

You are exactly right. Japan had a lot more going for it, and in the 1980's than China does now, and yet, it proved to be a bubble.

Having said that, I wouldn't short China over the next 24 months.....

On Nov 16 09:14 AM China Interest wrote:

> The similarities between China now and Japan in the late 1980s have
> substantial overlap. Be cautious folks! I live in China and not all
> things are what they seem.

Europe: Microsoft Woos Newspapers by Funding Their Stick to Beat Google

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 22:12:38 -0500

MSFT's already been convicted on antitrust violations. I doubt the current administration, which is 1000 times less corrupt than the last, will allow MSFT off with a wink and a slap on the wrist this time.

On Nov 15 06:43 PM User 467712 wrote:

> This could mean big trouble for Google's revenue's if Murdoch's get's
> other's to follow. This could be a revenue streem for other companies.
> I rarely do any search's for new's on google, but if it's shopping
> you do then it could spell trouble if MSFT paid to have exclusive
> rights for a "AMAZON, WAL-MART" on BING. Then Google will find themselve
> paying out BILLION's to get the right content on their search's

Android: Handset Makers Are at Google's Mercy

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:48:00 -0500

This is one reason Apple blew Verizon off; Verizon has an out-dated, last-century network. AND Verizon always cripples the handsets it sells, on top of that.

On Nov 15 12:02 PM vassar wrote:

> Why be excited about CDMA when it doesn't allow simultaneous Voice
> and Data.
>
> Android multi-tasking is hobbled with CDMA.
>
> Even the iPhone (GSM) allows one to check email, browse the web and
> use a multitude of other programs while on the phone.

Europe: Microsoft Woos Newspapers by Funding Their Stick to Beat Google

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:45:03 -0500

Google will find a technological fix to deal with these "dead trees" idiots, particularly if they are in bed with MSFT's third-rate talent. But, this does underscore what GOOG should be devoting its attention to-- reinforcing and protecting the search franchise-- instead of running off and wasting resources on dumb endeavors with little chance for pay off (Android).

It doesn't surprise me to see MSFT doing another rear-guard, defensive play. They always fight last year's war-- they are a company that is totally reactive; always playing defense; never in front an ANYTHING.

Can Murdoch Shift the Balance of Power in Search from Google?

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:37:43 -0500

Murdock is a fool to try to play in the big leagues. His day is passed.

On Nov 15 10:12 AM SouthernBeachGuy1960 wrote:

> Robert Murdock "Rocks"!! He will accomplish whatever he sets out
> to do!

Can Murdoch Shift the Balance of Power in Search from Google?

Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:36:37 -0500

Bing isn't "man" enough to do any damage to Google.

On Nov 15 09:11 AM Good Point wrote:

> I, like most of my geeky friends dislike google. I smell some thing
> is growing, that will Bing to a position where it deserves.
>
> go(ogle) to hell !
>
> happy search with Bing!

On the Declining Ubiquity of Globalization

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 16:03:17 -0500

Globalization is to the US as the Cultural Revolution was to China: a monstrous, huge, FAILED experiment, that ruined many and benefited very few.

What’s More Important to You: Bandwidth or TV?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:51:07 -0500

The set top box market is in its infancy but will take off in a few years. No one's emerged as a front runner-- or even a "major force". For now, AppleTV's "start the download and play" approach looks good.

What’s More Important to You: Bandwidth or TV?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 15:48:27 -0500

I'm not a network engineer, but I think most of the US has the "last mile" syndrome-- the actual internet backbone is fast and robust fiber.

On Nov 12 11:59 AM Shaftsinker wrote:

> Won't happen until North American ISPs drastically upgrade their
> infastructure.
>
> Most Canadian ISPs already have monthly consumption capped at 20-40
> GB, and American ISPs have started doing the same.
>
> With the growing proliferation of HD it's gonna take billions and
> billions of dollars to upgrade the bandwidth infrastructure before
> internet streaming and downloads can truly supplant traditional television.

Google: Setting Itself Up for Failure?

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:09:31 -0500

"The cost of Xbox gets spread across the life of the project not some random dates you pick, and as such it is making plenty of profit."

Wishful thinking on your part. Over the life of XBox, that division has swallowed upwards of 20 Billion. And I guess the console will need a refresh soon; it's been out a while.

On Nov 11 10:24 PM jack dee wrote:

> Sorry Tom B some corrections...
>
> MS Server software has made billions, your liking it , or not liking
> has nothing to do with it, get over yourself.
>
> The cost of Xbox gets spread across the life of the project not some
> random dates you pick, and as such it is making plenty of profit.
> anain , sorry the whole real world thing is getting your way again...
>
>
> On Nov 11 09:38 PM Tom B wrote:

7 Dividend Stocks to Prove Buy-and-Hold Isn't Dead

Thu, 12 Nov 2009 08:32:08 -0500

I like JNJ and have some shares. Also, IBM, but not looking to hold long-term. What do people think of HON? ABB?

Google: Setting Itself Up for Failure?

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 21:38:15 -0500

A few corrections: MSFT SERVER software isn't very good; it mostly sells in support of the Windows/Office franchise-- Outlook/Exchange, etc.

Xbox is a money pit; not a profit source.

On Nov 11 03:52 PM jack dee wrote:

> It appears that Dan has no idea what he is talking about.
>
> MSFT makes more money on sharepoint then many companies even turn
> over.
>
> Server software is worth more than some other F500 companies. Msft
> is making profit with xbox in a market everyone they would be laughed
> out of.
>
> Tools , xbox azure secondlight its all happening, but then when your
> entire focus is on phones and fancy keyboards, of course you might
> miss the fact that GOOG has continued to expand its market, into
> segs that it was not even a player 5 years ago, but hey why should
> the truth matter, we are all here just to cheerlead AAPL......

>
>
>
> On Nov 11 02:43 PM Dan Braem wrote:

While Rivals Jockey for Market Share, Apple Bathes in Profits

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 11:57:23 -0500

Apple was poorly managed for many years-- the period after Sculley kicked out Jobs an Jobs returned. People left the company for dead, in spite of the fact that their products, even then, put MSFT to shame. MSFT, after all, seemed to have a stable business model and steady management. How times have changed; now, Apple is rising and MSFT has neither clear vision, nor competent management; and they are less able, due to scrutiny from the DoJ, to maintain their business through illegal coercion, as they have done in the past.

"That’s not to say that Apple doesn’t care about market share for either its computers or the iPhone, it undoubtedly does. But it’s a secondary goal to running a successful business." Apple doesn't sell junk, period. They don't have a $300 Netbook, maybe out of flimsy plastic; they have a quality iPhone, that does most of what you'd want to do on a Netbook-- but fits in your pocket. And, they have a line of excellent laptops at various price points.

Apple has a modern, UNIX-based OS. MSFT had YEARS to update THEIR OS, and all they spewed out is Win 7: warmed over Win XP, with more eye-candy. None of the security or performance a UNIX-based OS would provide.

Google: Setting Itself Up for Failure?

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 10:11:32 -0500

Apple's sold an estimated 3-4 million iPhones in Chain-- that's quite good for a third world country with poor per capita GDP.

Unfortunately, the "official" sales, through China Unicom, are poor-- those phones are crippled; thus, thus the black market phones are doing much better. High black market activity is hardly unusual in communist police states.

On Nov 11 10:05 AM Advill wrote:

> Could you repeat your comment about China and IPhone "cooking nicely"?......China
> now days is Waterloo equivalent for Apple.!!!.

Adobe Reportedly Laying Off Up to 15% of Its Staff

Wed, 11 Nov 2009 08:51:05 -0500

Well, Adobe is a company that became essentially irrelevant years ago, and we ARE in the middle of the Mother of All Recessions. Adobe has approximately ONE or TWO products with any inherent worth (correct me if I'm wrong)-- they have Photoshop and InDesign (for web design). Both products are vulnerable; they do not have insurmountable "moats".

They used to be a very important company, but they got lazy. Adobe Reader is a slow, buggy, JOKE compared to Preview. Adobe Premiere was out-classed by Final Cut pro. Flash is a horrible, CPU-sucking, crash prone annoyance, which will gradually disappear from the web as HTML5 comes into increasing use.

They were a GREAT company at one time; they brought about Postscript and modern computer typography. But, those days are LONG gone.

Google: Setting Itself Up for Failure?

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:09:08 -0500

I agree with your comments, but think you should wait a year before shorting GOOG. If the recession is REALLy winding down, Goog may return to its $750-ish pre-recession peak for a time.

On Nov 10 02:00 PM ryanclarke wrote:

> GOOG at $550 looks like a shorting opportunity. The reality of it
> is GOOG is a one hit wonder who has transformed the advertising model
> of business ... everything else the company has done to date has
> not been a cash cow by any means. Money being thrown into the smart
> phone arena is a waste in my opinion ... as every joe blow tech company
> now has a phone branded with their label ... when Qualcomm, Arm Holding,
> TI, and Intc are the only true innovators ... GOOG is making the
> software side of the phone business ... FREE as usual. I'm short
> DELL, as I see just two massive IT companies surviving this current
> downturn ... HPQ and APPL ... that's right ... when all is said and
> done MSFT is going to flop ... two or three years from now ... but
> DELL goes down the sink next year.

Pfizer's Cutbacks Reflect Difficulties Facing Big Pharma

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:02:52 -0500

"The key strategy is cost management not revenue growth."

In other words, to hell with a patient that might be waiting for a new, life-saving therapy-- we have the much more important goal of preserving our dividend. Idiots!

On Nov 10 11:59 AM desicon wrote:

> PFE is following the tried and proven business methods. The key strategy
> is cost management not revenue growth. Next will be the closure of
> plants in western countries and move manufacturing to China and India.
> The political climate, healthcare reform and cap & trade makes
> the management decisions easy. When you do deal with the devil (the
> government) the innocent bystander (the people) are the victims.

Google: Setting Itself Up for Failure?

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:26:44 -0500

So, the result: Google overpaid, and Apple can retaliate by building a competing system. Apple wins the round.

On Nov 10 09:20 AM herbert hoover wrote:

> The author does know that APPL was the other bidder for AdMob, right?
> I suppose if APPL had been successful, he would have written an article
> extrolling Apple's "brilliance."

Three Core Biotech Holdings: Isis, Ligand and Vical

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 22:11:36 -0500

LGND is a dog; a LOST dog. In a forest full of coyotes.

Google's Rare Homepage Push for Droid

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 12:37:19 -0500

"Although, the juxtaposition does make it seem like Bert and Ernie are trying to get you to buy a Droid."

Sock puppets worked great for "Pets.com"-- not!

It's great Google can get such a widely-seen billboard for their message, but it will take more than that to move a platform as anemic and poorly conceived as the Droid 2.0. They need to understand the difference between "playing to the geeks at Google, Inc" and designing products with broad appeal.

Google Is Google for Music

Mon, 09 Nov 2009 12:30:33 -0500

Amazon has a decent MP3 service and it hasn't made a dent in iTunes. iTunes is about convenience; not cheapest possible cost or deepest search. I suspect Google music will handle music SEARCH really well, but the other aspects (BUYING the muisc) will be less compelling to consumers.

It's good Google is experimenting with other services-- staying put, in one niche, tends to lead to extinction over time. But not EVERY Google idea will be a hit. I find Google Finance less compelling than the long-in-the-tooth Yahoo Finance page. Droid, of course, is not going to be as massive success, either, judging from early reviews of the new MOT Droid 2.0 phone.

What's Wrong with the Gaming Industry?

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 11:49:31 -0500

The margins will be squeezed in games, going forward. All the cutting-edge stuff (innovation-wise; not "frame rate-wise) is on the iPhone, and many of those are $1 games. Fun, quick games-- in your pocket--on the morning commute.

How Apple and iPhone Blew It in China

Sun, 08 Nov 2009 11:43:11 -0500

This is an idiotic comment. America is WAY ahead in tech, though much of the assembly is, indeed, overseas. Regardless of how "America" is in Tech, the iPhone is ahead of all phones in current production, by a wide margin. The closest competitor, MOT's Droid (an American company, BTW) is FAR inferior-- we'll be up to Android 3.0 before Apple even has to start taking notice in Droid.

As for investing overseas, I'm all for it. Doubled my money on STP in the past 12 months. I like ABB a lot.

On Nov 08 11:35 AM Tony Daltorio wrote:

> When are American investors going to ever look beyond US borders?
>
>
> The reason the iPhone is not doing well in China and will NOT do
> well elsewhere overseas is that these markets had similar products
> years ago...despite the belief that the US is still the leader in
> tech, the truth is that America is no longer the leader in tech...American
> tech is now years behind their competitors.

How Apple And IPhone Blew It In China

Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:20:37 -0500

"Why change your phone number and take the risk of bad signal strength when you can buy a cracked iPhone and keep the same number and operator?"

Good article. This is why the "official" sales numbers for iPhones in China is largely irrelevant. No worries; the iPhone HARDWARE is doing fine in the East. Having said that, per capita GDP in China is well below the West, on average, so I think expectations were unrealistic.