Tom B

Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It

"And remember, the government subsidies for ethanol are minor in comparison to those paid to the oil industry. "

Agreed. And we are still paying those--why?

Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It

"There's always a new crop year"

Farming 101: Corn is expensive to grow and requires LOTS of chemical fertilization. Arable land is a finite resource. Water is a finite resource. Farming is weather dependent.

Ethanol Is Dead: How You Can Still Profit From It

Food (Corn)-based ethanol is for morons. It has been known for years that you use more energy making it than you get out. I defer judgment on exotic ethanol production methods-- switchgrass etc. Investing in corn-ethanol-- a scientifically doomed endeavor-- is "bubble" investing. The Brazil/ sugarcane process might not translate to the US at all and might be totally unsustainable-- aren't they having huge deforestation/clear cutting issues in the rain forest?

Cars HAVE to be mostly electric in the future-- hybrids of various types. The electricity HAS to come from a sensible source-- not coal, not oil. We need nukes plus conservation plus wind plus wave plus solar. We don't have enough good farm land or water to feed BOTH people and cars sustainably on the scale required.

Do Biofuels Harm More than They Help?

"Too bad they skate over the fact that they are also giving big subsidies to oil companies as well..."

And, don't forget, most alternate energy research dollars go to the oxymoronic "clean coal", instead of going to legitimate projects.

Do Biofuels Harm More than They Help?

"So tree-hugging, feel-good environmental babble has a LOT to do with investing in this sector, because if sentiment towards biofuels turns negative, the political support for the subsidies will disappear"

Umm-- subsidies aren't directed at the "tree-huggers"; they are a transparent and stupid use of pork-barrel politics to fish for corn states votes.

Tough Week for Ethanol Stocks

Ethanol is a bubble. It make NO SENSE technologically, since you use more energy than you get. It ONLY exists to feed farm subsidy money to Republican Bible Belt States.

Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. Going Shopping?

Corn Ethanol uses more energy in the production than you get out.

And a tank of E85 will give you lower mileage than E90 or straight gasoline. Ethanol is a sucker's bet.

Is Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. Going Shopping?

The ethanol industry will only last until we get a president smarter than a brick-- Jan. 2009, presumably. And I'd prefer to avoid buying into an ethically challenged company like ADM. I never bought Enron, but my wife did. If a company is sufficiently corrupt, you can't trust the books. That's also why I don't touch anything in China, though there's plenty of money to be made there if you are always ready to sell fast at the first sign of trouble.

Now There's An Ethanol Glut?! I Thought We Couldn't Make Enough

In Douglas Adam's "HitchHiker's Guide to the Universe" (sci-fi) Earth's first colonists -- our ancestors-- at one point declare that leaves could be used as currency-- which lead to massive inflation AND deforestation.

I used to think it was hilarious, before I saw how utterly alcoholic a person can be and still become President (perhaps with help from Diebold...).

Now There's An Ethanol Glut?! I Thought We Couldn't Make Enough

It's production is also stupid because the conversion of ethanol to energy is more or less a zero sum game; you use about as much energy as you get out. If "W" pushed this into a renewable energy bill, one imagines it'll only last about as long as his Presidency.

The way to sensible energy policy with respect to autos lies with better plug-in hybrids, I would think, which means increased electricity generation, which means more nukes, wind, waves, and geothermal. Coal is red hot right now, but that has huge environmental negatives, ranging from carbon dioxide, to mercury, to strip mining. Common sense from the federal govt is an exception rather than the norm, but one anticipates a big improvement after '08, given that the GOP has been traditionally more "bribeable" by the coal and oil interests.

Ethanol Has OPEC Publicly Concerned

What ADM mostly bets on is that they'll find adequate numbers of thoroughly corrupt legislators. Are you willing to bet that ADM won't squash attempts to switch from corn to less monopolized crops?

Ethanol Has OPEC Publicly Concerned

Todd, yes, it is clear world oil production has peaked. It is a finite resource. But, regardless of that fact, I think we all need to step back from ethanol production as an investment and contemplate it as a technology. Making ethanol from corn is a bad, bad, bad, stupid idea. Politicians who advocate corn subsidies should have their brains washed out with soap. You have essentially ZERO gain in energy if you factor in all steps of the process. Ethanol from plant waste or switch grass or some crop that doesn't suck up massive quantities of nitrogen fertilizer may be a different beast. Thus, I would advocate looking to see what the feeedstock for any ethanol company looks like before investing.

As Exxon, etc. I advocate the US nationalizing oil production, but I know that has no chance of happening with our politicians all "on the take" from Big Oil.

Blue-Chip Alternative Energy Picks

I like your strategy. Much as I'd like to invest in "Joe's house of Solar Cells", I have bet my hard-earned cash on DD, GE, and DUK, to date.

Is Big Oil Curbing Ethanol Growth?

You are absolutely right about ethanol. It is a technological dead end. I am VERY concerned that the politicians will push ethanol ad nauseum to please the corn states-- leading to significant opportunity costs-- and inflation. The price of food corn will go up; The effective cost of fuel will go up, because a tank of E85 doesn't take you as far as a tank of straight gasoline or 90/10 gas ethanol..