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Ohrama

Ohrama
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  • Overconfident consumers seeking instant gratification share the blame for the economic mess, but a growing sense of "our fragility and our weaknesses" - call it gloom if you want - can help us develop the realistic expectations needed to save the economy, Rick Newman writes. "It might make us grumpy, but after that it will make us better off."  [View news story]
    Well, I admire Carter (as an engineer who understood the limitations of the physical world that we live in, and not as a democrat) and perhaps we would not be in the hole that we are in if we had followed his advice (on reduced expectations, dependence on foreign oil etc.). We need to understand not only our strength but also the weaknesses. It is like not only you need to know where you want to go, but also where you are right now to go to that place. And in terms of life experience (and not by age), I belong to the depression era!
    Jun 30, 2010. 06:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overconfident consumers seeking instant gratification share the blame for the economic mess, but a growing sense of "our fragility and our weaknesses" - call it gloom if you want - can help us develop the realistic expectations needed to save the economy, Rick Newman writes. "It might make us grumpy, but after that it will make us better off."  [View news story]
    Well, it is pay back time for our past sins. Either we do that with contrition and magnanimity to lay the foundation for a better future for this country and our children or expect others to sacrifice only to find that everyone is looking for that other. It is our choice (or is it that other person's choice?)!
    Jun 30, 2010. 06:34 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As it has done with U.S. retail, a Wal-Mart (WMT) bank could be a disciplining force in holding down costs for customers and could act as an engine of credit creation for a significantly under-banked subset of the American populace. So of course the banks are trying to kill it off in the financial reform legislation.  [View news story]
    Or Walmart could ditch their bread and butter (of selling cheap foreign made merchandise) and become a banking giant that can thrive from the Fed. Reserve give aways!
    Jun 24, 2010. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bernanke doesn't care about high unemployment, Daniel Gross says, perhaps because the Fed is "simply exhausted... having used up all its resources in saving the system," or it's a "failure of imagination." Either way, he says, "expecting this Fed to have a sense of urgency about the unemployment rate may be as futile as looking for a Cadillac at the bottom of a Cracker Jack box."  [View news story]
    It is as much failure of Ben Bernanke as the greed of the working population (including myself or my children). Instead of matching our talents (which has gone down during the last 40 years that I have personally observed) and the existing competition to the possible income, we start with how much we need (and we need infinite amount if we can pull it through!) and expect to be paid. The politicians (mostly lawyers) responded to the greed by legislating how much we need to paid, listened to the unions etc. The result is the jobs moving abroad etc. We are not going to get out this mess by banning the others (the foreigners) getting into the country or banning imports. We need to fight our way back through making our work indispensable, and reduce our expectations (or match it to what is the reality.
    Jun 24, 2010. 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Geithner and Summers struggle to establish traction for Obama's “spend now, save later” message, so Simon Johnson says there is a clear opportunity to establish credibility on this issue: Bring Paul Krugman into government to replace departing budget director Peter Orszag. No one would be a better spokesman against overly rapid fiscal contraction: case in point.  [View news story]
    So, we can name him Budget Fudging Paul Krugman!
    Jun 24, 2010. 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time to Short These Three Homebuilder ETFs? [View article]
    Yes, things look bad except that the clowns in Washington might introduce yet another home buyers credit, perhaps $15,000 this time, and try to pump up the market with PPT etc.
    Jun 24, 2010. 08:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want a Yuan Play? Look to Commodities [View article]
    For the naysayer's on my previous comments, the CYB is down another 0.32% today (most of the increase due to the euphoria of the Yuan announcement is gone)! The currency is not going to go up on its own (because of their reluctance what ever the reasons may be). So, something else has to happen. Trade war? hyperinflation (for U.S.A)?
    Jun 23, 2010. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Want a Yuan Play? Look to Commodities [View article]
    First who said the Yuan is going to appreciate against dollar? They pegged it to dollar and it worked well when the dollar was weak. Now that the Euro is weak, they want to peg the Yuan to Euro (or a basket; so in effect it will be a devaluation against dollar) so that their export to Europe won't suffer. So, in my opinion folks who think the Yuan would strengthen against dollar would be disappointed (Yes, I have CYB for some time thinking that the lopsided export figures mean the currency has to appreciate eventually, but it looks like the Chinese rulers have different calculations. Perhaps they have parked all the looted money abroad in dollar accounts as is the case with Indian politicians and the filthy rich!)
    Jun 23, 2010. 06:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • For all the pressure the U.S. put on China to loosen its currency peg, China's plans for increased flexibility may disappoint Washington, suggests Nouriel Roubini, if the yuan ends up weakening against the dollar rather than strengthening.  [View news story]
    When the dollar was going down, Chinese officials pegged Yuan to the the dollar. Now that the Euro is down, they want to peg the Yuan to the Euro. So, the game plan is to justify keeping the Yuan low. So, I don't see the reason for the euphoria!
    Jun 21, 2010. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soros vs. Apple: Irrational Pessimism, Part 2 [View article]
    If "Mark to market" has certain deficiencies, we need to address them (like what percentage the balance sheet changes when we go from MTM to fantasy, the amount of money that might be needed in real emergency and if they can be raised quickly without damaging the portfolio etc. For example, the value of my house is immaterial to me since I live in it and don't depend on it to fund my life. It may not be the case for another person who might have to move to another city for a new job etc.) and not just throw and live in a fictitious world.
    Jun 21, 2010. 08:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Global Economic Growth Slowing Already? [View article]
    What O-B-WON has said (and I realize his Vietnam and other experiences have given him that broader perspective which most others lack) seems to have been put nicely by a economist from M.I.T (I don't remember the name etc.) as follows: " Capitalism by definition requires continuous growth. But we can't do that in a finite world.""
    That means we need to have recessions, depressions etc. so that once we go up too much, we come down so that we can grow again. Unfortunately with Greenspan, we got into the mindset that we can avoid all dips and wasting our resources to accomplish that unaccomplishable. And we also played the same game (buy the dips) with the 401k funds expecting the market (and the house prices) will keep going up!
    Jun 21, 2010. 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • For all the pressure the U.S. put on China to loosen its currency peg, China's plans for increased flexibility may disappoint Washington, suggests Nouriel Roubini, if the yuan ends up weakening against the dollar rather than strengthening.  [View news story]
    So, it is a game of competitive devaluation, and we are loosing in that game too! On the positive side, let us enjoy what cheap foreign goods it brings since we don't know how long that can last either.
    Jun 20, 2010. 05:29 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia is considering diversifying its international reserves, following fluctuations in the dollar and euro, which account for 88% of its holdings. The Canadian and Aussie dollars are likely candidates.  [View news story]
    Well, eventually all will wake up to the fact that all the fiat currencies are worth less than the toilet paper (which at least has got some good use!) due to competitive printing. Time to start buying commodities etc. (unlike the CALPERS purchase of the British airport, a boondoggle, I suppose) and bartering arrangement!
    Jun 19, 2010. 08:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should We Fear a Liquidity Trap or Not? [View article]
    Our deflation (other than the real estate) is mainly due to the Chinese (mostly) and other nationals subsidizing our way of life. I do not see any deflation in terms of services (auto, home etc.) or goods produced here (vegetables, fruits). With all the talks of Chinese workers demanding and getting hefty pay raises and the possible upward revaulation of the Chinese currency, that part of the deflation will also disappear. So, unless we can eat and wear our deflated real estate assets, we are going to face a big jump in the inflation numbers.
    Jun 15, 2010. 07:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Another (Imminent) Financial Crisis Is a Good Thing [View article]
    "eurozone sovereign insolvency + bank insolvency + US deflation + China slowdown = oppportunity for structural overhaul." True or not, we are guaranteed of a crash (in couple of years if not sooner)! All the talks about improved earnings etc. are off if the sales volume shrinks by another 5 to 10%.
    Jun 15, 2010. 06:43 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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