Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View Ohrama's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Apple Selects An Intel Modem: A Glimpse Of The Future [View article]
    I think he seems to have the correct view for the intermediate duration: Semiconductor industry has become commodized; PC etc. have become boring such as our washing machines. The innovators which bring the commodities together into their own product and in that process gain a large IP will reap a big gain.
    But he should also be asking how long this IP on few products (or in a particular line of thinking) will take a company, especially one that is reaching the Trillion dollar valuation? Remember, the smartphone and related ideas are also reaching the saturation level. And a 10 ten year super performance of a company is not a predictive one of the next 50 years. Unfortunately it is very difficult to accept it when you are in love with a company.
    Mar 12, 2015. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Selects An Intel Modem: A Glimpse Of The Future [View article]
    "Apple brings in the paying customer, pockets the profits, and throws some scraps for the dogs to fight over."
    This seems to be the result of over enthusiasm or inexperience in how business tides change and presently seen in Apple fan boys (which could put them in the dog house one day). Apple (I have been and still a tech and Apple lover, an NSF official in the days when terms such as Experimental VLSI Systems, now SoC, were coined and funded, questions such as what we will do when we have a Cray computer on a one inch chip for one dollar piece were tossed etc) has been in the dog house for a long time too.
    Mar 12, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Apple Will Repeat History And Plunge Into The Abyss: Time To Call It Quits [View article]
    Great article on history and the ups and downs of apple. As a tech savvy person and who grew up with Apple (I bought a Newton for my 13 year old son in 1995! And still have the apple products dating back to 1980s), I wish I wrote that article. You are right on all details and quite possibly on the prediction too. I would have added few more reasons: As we keep moving up on the innovation and must have devices list, finding that next must have device becomes much more difficult. And people's infatuation (especially the Americans) with new things is also of limited duration. Think about the cruising industry now and ten years ago. Yes, yes, I know that they said the same thing about difficulty in innovating new products in 1904 or so before the autos were introduced. Initially, innovations take an exponential path. Then a saturation and then we need a big impulse (with the power of an atom or hydrogen bomb) to start the next exponential growth phase. It does not seem to be there.
    May 29, 2013. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The $200 Billion Question [View article]
    Many folks forget that Apple was a failure in the 1990's from a financial perspective (I checked the long term chart and noticed it retained the price attained before the 1987 market crash for the next 10 years, an indication of its technological innovations that pleased geeks like me but was a failure with the average Joe) and Steve Jobs was ousted from the company. Next ten years they made money by moving away from the 10% or so geeks to the other 90%. The question is if that segment still has the pulling power on the Apple products or moved on or got tired in general? In fact, I keep reminding myself perhaps we have reached the saturation point in these devices and the PC sales will be cannibalized by the smartphone and the tablet market and the later market is also getting saturated. So, it could be scary time for tech sector as a whole.
    Feb 11, 2013. 07:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hurdles For Apple Longs [View article]
    For the Author (I guess he is the only one who will look back at the article and not the commenters who tried to shoot the messenger) a comment I left in another Apple article:
    All the comments from Apple fan boys (and investors) remind me of the days when I was a program director of a Fed. research agency. Initially I will try to explain why I could not fund a specific proposal that would result in too many calls to my boss (trying to overturn the outcome). The boss would tell me, the proposal is their baby and the baby is cute and beautiful regardless of what others say and you do not have to explain any further than what your written review says. And after some experience on the job, I also realized the review process is like "Four blind folks touching and deciding what an elephant is". And this immediate attack on the analyst also makes me think of what the press used to call FOB or friends of Bill Clinton who will go to bat for him as soon as something bad emerged (like Jennifer Flower news). We will know soon which side is right (and it won't be settled in one quarter) since there are good arguments on both sides (not just this article).
    A former fan boy of Apple when it was really a Geek company (remember the Newton or the original Optical Hard drive) which no longer it is.
    Jan 30, 2013. 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Decline: Thanks, iPad Mini [View article]
    All these religious-right like Apple fans remind me of my initial experimentation with investing some 30 years ago (Yes, I still carry the scars from 1987, not to mention the carry over loss which also happened because the great Ronald Reagan decided to award the super rich by separating the passive loss from active income hurting the middle class more in that process!): Any company (in which I am a share holder) needs to be defended vigorously and any product that is made by them should be commended and bought again and again. So, you buy as the stock goes up (because the company rewarded you) and you buy when the stock goes down (because it is your duty). I hope you guys don't end with a similar somber story for others or your grand kids 30 years from now!
    Disclaimer: I adored Apple products when they were the elite man's (it looks like I am being redundant here!) toys (80's to 90's; remember the optical drive capable of storing 50 MB or so per cartridge?). But when Steve Job's found the (dumb) money is with the other 90% of the crowd (and they will go and buy those sleek an shiny products even when they don't have the money or the need for the product), he dumped guys like me!
    Dec 9, 2012. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on AAPL by Ohrama